Forecasters lower ad spending outlook

Forecasters lower ad spending outlook

This morning the latest round of media economy forecasts for 2011 and 2012 came out, and while they certainly signal serious reservations about the recovery, the predictions are still for growth rather than the steep losses that came during the 2008 and 2009 recession. GroupM lowered its 2011 forecast for U.S. ad spending from 3.8 percent to 3.3 percent, while also dropping its 2012 forecast from 4.2 percent growth to 4.0 percent. MagnaGlobal also chopped its global outlook, from 5.2 percent to 4.7 percent this year and from 6.5 percent to 5.0 percent next year. ZenithOptimedia, the London-based agency, stuck with its October forecast of 2.2 percent growth this year for U.S. ad spending, and it also maintained its earlier 3.5 percent growth forecast for 2012, though it cut its global outlook. The lone forecaster to up his prediction was UBS’s John Janedis, who raised his outlook for 2012 ad spending to growth of 4.2 percent, up from 3.6 percent earlier this year. He cited better-than-expected third quarter ad numbers in part for the change. Though all four major forecasters still think advertising will grow in the next few years, they cited concerns about the media economy generally in their reports. For full coverage of today’s forecasts, see today’s edition of the Media Economy Newsletter.

Sweeps upset: ‘Late Show’ beats ‘Tonight Show’

November sweeps produced a rarity for late-night TV. CBS’s “The Late Show with David Letterman” beat NBC’s “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” among adults 18-49 for the first time since November 1994, according to Nielsen, though both finished behind ABC’s “Nightline” and Leno kept his lead among total viewers. Letterman averaged a 0.9 18-49 rating to Leno’s 0.8. Letterman hadn’t beaten his rival in the demo since his second season with CBS. But ABC’s “Nightline” bested them both, averaging a 1.0 rating among 18-49s. “Nightline” was also first for the month with 4.1 million total viewers, with “Tonight” at 3.7 million and “Late Show” at 3.5 million. Benefitting from a first-place lead-in and an earlier start time than its rivals, ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” was first in late-late night during November sweeps with 2.0 million total viewers, the show’s best number for any sweeps period in its nine-year history. NBC’s “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” was second with 1.8 million viewers, CBS’s “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” third at 1.7 million and NBC’s “Last Call with Carson Daly” fourth at 1.0 million. Among 18-49s “Kimmel,” “Late Night” and “Late Late Show” each averaged a 0.6 rating, with the 1:37 a.m. “Last Call” fourth with a 0.3.

Nielsen admits glitch in kids’ ratings

Ever since Viacom noted earlier this fall that ratings for its top network, Nickelodeon, were down double-digit percentages among kids, the cable giant has been pointing its finger at Nielsen, alleging that some sort of data glitch was at fault for the unexpected slide, which prompted Viacom to issue makegoods for ratings promises that were not delivered. Not our fault, Nielsen protested, but now the Wall Street Journal has thrown that claim into question. The paper said today that data Nielsen gave it last week about kids 2-11 viewing was incorrect, claiming that viewership had risen 1.7 percent when it was actually down 2.9 percent. Nielsen blamed the mistake on a failure to “apply a standard adjustment” to last year’s data and says it continues to stand behind the Nick numbers, which were not affected by the recalculation. No other kids’ network has experienced such a notable decline. The Media Rating Council has been conducting a review of the Nielsen Nick data and is expected to issue a report soon.

Saturday overnights: Fox passes the competition

Saturday night was all about college football.

Fox’s coverage of the inaugural Big 10 championship game between Wisconsin and Michigan State, a thriller won 42-39 by the Badgers, powered the network to victory for the night.

Fox averaged a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating and 6 share from 8 to 11 p.m., according to Nielsen overnights, comfortably ahead of No. 2 ABC at 1.8/5 for another college football game, the Big 12 championship between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

CBS finished third with a 1.3/4, followed by NBC in fourth at 1.1/3. Univision placed fifth at 0.7/2 and Telemundo was sixth at 0.3/1.

As a reminder, ratings for sports programming on Fox and ABC are preliminary as they measure timeslot and not actual program data and do not take time zone differences into account.

And all ratings are based on live-plus-same-day DVR playback, which includes shows replayed before 3 a.m. the night before. Seven-day DVR data won’t be available for several weeks. Forty-two percent of Nielsen households have DVRs.

Fox won every hour of the night, starting at 8 p.m. with a 1.9 for the first hour of its game. ABC was second with a 1.8 for its game coverage. CBS’s repeats of “The Big Bang Theory” (1.7) and “How I Met Your Mother” (1.3) placed third with a 1.6, followed by NBC with a 0.8 for the first hour of “It’s a Wonderful Life.” Univision placed fifth with a 0.8 for hour one of “Sabado Gigante,” and Telemundo took sixth with a 0.4.

At 9 p.m. Fox continued to lead with a 2.2 for Wisconsin-MSU. ABC’s Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game was second with a 2.0, followed by the first hour of CBS’s “48 Hours Mystery” with a 1.1. “Life,” which did lift NBC to its best non-sports Saturday numbers in a year, placed fourth with a 1.0, followed by Univision in fifth with a 0.7 for “Sabado” and Telemundo in sixth with a 0.3.

At 10 p.m. Fox’s football rose to a 2.5, with ABC’s football in second with a 1.7. CBS’s “Hours” and NBC’s “Life” tied for third with a 1.3 apiece, followed by Univision’s “Sabado” in fifth with a 0.8 and Telemundo in sixth with a 0.3.

Among households Fox also finished first with a 4.1 rating and 7 share. ABC was second at 3.5/6, CBS was third at 3.3/6, NBC was fourth with 2.8/5, Univision was fifth with 1.2/2, and Telemundo was sixth with 0.4/1.

Friday overnights: CBS and Univision tie for first

CBS and Univision tied for first place among viewers 18-49 on a very slow night for TV viewing on Friday.

Each network averaged a 1.4 rating and 4 share for the night in the demo, according to Nielsen overnights, while Fox and ABC tied for third at 1.2/4. NBC was fifth at 0.7/2 and CW and Telemundo tied for sixth at 0.6/2.

As a reminder, all ratings are based on live-plus-same-day DVR playback, which includes shows replayed before 3 a.m. the night before. Seven-day DVR data won’t be available for several weeks. Forty-two percent of Nielsen households have DVRs.

Also, ratings for Fox’s college football coverage are approximate as fast nationals measure timeslot and not actual program data.

Univision started the night in the lead with a 1.4 at 8 p.m. for “Una Familia con Suerte,” while CBS and Fox tied for second at 1.2, CBS for “A Gifted Man” and Fox for its first hour of the Pac-12 college football championship game. ABC was fourth with a 1.1 for “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” Telemundo fifth with a 0.7 for “Una Maid en Manhattan,” NBC sixth with a 0.6 for “Game of Your Life” and CW seventh with a 0.5 for “Nikita.”

At 9 p.m. Univision was first again with a 1.6 for “La Fuerza del Destino,” followed by ABC with a 1.4 for “CSI: NY.” ABC and Fox tied for third at 1.3, ABC for more “Extreme Makeover” and Fox for football, with CW fifth with a 0.7 for “Supernatural” and NBC and Telemundo tied for sixth at 0.5, NBC for another hour of “Game” and Telemundo for “Flor Salvaje.”

CBS moved to first at 10 p.m. with a 1.6 for “Blue Bloods,” with ABC second with a 1.3 for “20/20.” Univision was third with a 1.2 for “Rosa de Guadalupe,” Fox fourth with a 1.1 for football, NBC fifth with a 1.0 for “Dateline” and Telemundo sixth with a 0.6 for “La Casa de al Lado.”

Among households, CBS led the night with a 6.1 average overnight rating and a 10 share. ABC was second at 3.1/5, Fox third at 2.6/4, NBC fourth at 1.9/3, Univision fifth at 1.7/3, CW sixth at 1.1/2 and Telemundo seventh at 0.8/1.