Forecast: U.S. ad spending will grow 0.6 percent

Following a year of strong spending growth in the U.S., with political and Olympic expenditures driving a year-to-year gain of 4 percent, the rate of increase will slow drastically in 2013, when global ad spending growth will also decelerate.

U.S. ad spending will be up just 0.6 percent compared to 2012, according to a forecast released last night by MagnaGlobal, though it will improve 2.6 percent when excluding last year’s big spending on the elections and the Summer Games.

But there’s a big qualifier to that forecast.

“This is of course if government manages to find an agreement before the end of December, to avoid falling off the ‘fiscal cliff,’ which would potentially reduce economic growth by several points into recession,” notes the forecast.

TV will take a hit without the Games, with total revenue down 1.9 percent, including a 3.6 percent dip for English-language networks.

Spot TV will also fall sharply after seeing nearly $3 billion in political ads this year, down 9 percent next year.

Cable will still see healthy gains, up 4.6 percent.

Digital will be up the most, 11.6 percent, while cinema and outdoor will also see decent gains, 4.4 percent apiece.

The outlook for newspapers and magazines remains bleak. Papers will fall by 6.7 percent, predicts MagnaGlobal, while magazines will fall 7.8 percent.

Radio will be flat.

The forecast is cautious for global ad sales, noting the continuing debt crisis in Europe that is spooking other markets.

MagnaGlobal now forecasts a 3.1 percent gain in global ad revenue next year, well off the 4.5 percent increase it predicted over the summer.

“The revision is mostly caused by a slow-down in economic growth and continued economic uncertainty in Europe and the U.S., as well as the cautionary marketing spend that took place in the second half of this year,” notes the forecast.

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