Forecast: U.S. ad spending will grow 0.6 percent
December 3, 2012
Following a year of strong spending growth in the U.S., with political and Olympic expenditures driving a year-to-year gain of 4 percent, the rate of increase will slow drastically in 2013, when global ad spending growth will also decelerate.
U.S. ad spending will be up just 0.6 percent compared to 2012, according to a forecast released last night by MagnaGlobal, though it will improve 2.6 percent when excluding last year’s big spending on the elections and the Summer Games.
But there’s a big qualifier to that forecast.
“This is of course if government manages to find an agreement before the end of December, to avoid falling off the ‘fiscal cliff,’ which would potentially reduce economic growth by several points into recession,” notes the forecast.
TV will take a hit without the Games, with total revenue down 1.9 percent, including a 3.6 percent dip for English-language networks.
Spot TV will also fall sharply after seeing nearly $3 billion in political ads this year, down 9 percent next year.
Cable will still see healthy gains, up 4.6 percent.
Digital will be up the most, 11.6 percent, while cinema and outdoor will also see decent gains, 4.4 percent apiece.
The outlook for newspapers and magazines remains bleak. Papers will fall by 6.7 percent, predicts MagnaGlobal, while magazines will fall 7.8 percent.
Radio will be flat.
The forecast is cautious for global ad sales, noting the continuing debt crisis in Europe that is spooking other markets.
MagnaGlobal now forecasts a 3.1 percent gain in global ad revenue next year, well off the 4.5 percent increase it predicted over the summer.
“The revision is mostly caused by a slow-down in economic growth and continued economic uncertainty in Europe and the U.S., as well as the cautionary marketing spend that took place in the second half of this year,” notes the forecast.
Competition holds up against World Series
Ben Bradlee, in other people’s words
How the MRC investigates snafus
New York City: TV is suddenly tight
‘Celebrity Name Game,’ bubblegum
Tell us, what’s your take on Martha Stewart?
For ‘Newsreaders,’ a dash of the absurd
World Series posts new low for opener
KC agency to Royals: We’ve got your back
Cable overnights: ‘Sons’ stays even to last week
NBC comedy block declines on Tuesday
Univision’s ‘Corazon’ tops Hispanic broadcast
Huge Twitter crowd for BET Hip Hop Awards
- Brad Cohn becomes executive creative director at MRY West
- John Pucci rises to CMO and CCO at Hawthorne Direct
- Dave Hadden becomes UX designer at Digital Pulp
- Maura Fritz becomes editorial recruiter at Hearst Magazines
- Joe Weisenthal becomes markets managing editor at Bloomberg.com
- Jennifer Hitzges and Petra Kobayashi join Redbook
- Larry Fitzmaurice, Zara Golden and Khalila Douze join The FADER
- Jessica Hopper becomes editor in chief at The Pitchfork Review
- Mimi Gigoux becomes EVP of human resources at Criteo
- Samantha Glynne becomes VP of branded entertainment at FremantleMedia
This month’s new media traffic data
This week’s cable ratings
This week’s broadcast ratings
This week’s top movies, songs and books
This week’s daypart ratings
This week’s younger viewer ratings
Media freelancer available for all markets
Media buyer job in Syracuse
Assistant media planner/buyer wanted in Austin
Digital media buyer/planner job in Norcross, Georgia
Associate media planner wanted in Chicago