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Sinking NBC has
lots riding on its fall


Ratings are now actually down from a year ago

Mar 28, 2007

NBC’s triumphant fall, in which it saw big ratings gains thanks to “Sunday Night Football” and No. 1 new show “Heroes,” has given way to a disappointing spring.

All four of its new midseason shows have flopped, and several veteran programs look weak as the May upfront approaches. Two weeks ago the network slipped behind last year’s average for the first time this season, raising a serious question for media buyers: Can NBC recover next year?

Season to date, the network is averaging a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating and a 9 share, down 3 percent from a 3.4/9 at the same point last season. It’s in fourth place, 0.2 rating points behind ABC and down 11 percent from fourth quarter, when it was averaging a solid 3.7/10.

Much of the problem is the poor performance of new shows “Andy Barker, P.I.,” “Raines,” “Grease: You’re the One That I Want” and “The Black Donnellys,” which are all averaging below a 2.8 rating. It’s doubtful any will return, despite mostly favorable critical response to the three scripted programs.

NBC had two years of sinking ratings before last fall’s growth. Next year will be critical for the network to avoid falling way back into the cellar, and much of it will depend on NBC’s new program development.

The network will need to replace a number of sagging older shows, likely including “Crossing Jordan,” “The Apprentice” and “Law & Order” and/or “L&O: Criminal Intent.” That means it will need a crop of not just smart shows but shows that actually interest viewers.

This year many media people felt NBC had the best slate of pilots, but viewers did not agree. Outside of “Heroes,” none of its new shows averaged above a 3.7 rating.

Yet NBC seems likely to renew low-rated “Friday Night Lights” and “30 Rock,” believing they can find an audience, much like “The Office” did after a disappointing first season. That show is now NBC’s top comedy among 18-49s.

The trick is to find some programs that can catch right away. By taking the far-from-sure chance that “Rock” and “Lights” will grow, NBC can’t risk repeating ABC’s mistake from last season. It followed up a strong development year that yielded “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” with one in which just one new show was renewed, nearly wiping out the gains from its big successes.

Meanwhile, in broadcast ratings for the week ended March 25:
 
Among adults 18-49, Fox led with a 4.4 average rating and a 12 share, followed by CBS at 3.5/10, ABC at 3.1/9, NBC at 2.3/6, Univision at 1.5/4, CW at 1.3/4, Telemundo at 0.4/1, Telefutura at 0.2/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
 
Among adults 18-34, Fox led at 3.9/13, followed by CBS at 2.7/9, ABC at 2.6/8, NBC at 1.7/5, Univision at 1.6/5, CW at 1.4/4, Telemundo at 0.4/1, Telefutura at 0.3/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
 
Among adults 25-54, Fox was first at 4.8/12, followed by CBS at 4.3/11, ABC at 3.5/9, NBC at 2.7/7, Univision at 1.5/4, CW at 1.2/3, Telemundo at 0.3/1, Telefutura at 0.2/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
 
Top five (18-49s): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 11.8; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 10.4; 3. ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” 9.0; 4. ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” 6.4; 5. Fox’s “'Til Death” 6.1.
 
Top five (total viewers): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 29.96 million; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 27.08 million; 3. ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” 22.30 million; 4. ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars”21.80 million; 5. CBS’s “CSI: Miami” 17.66 million.
 
Bottom five (18-49s): Tie-93. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” and “Gilmore Girls” 0.8; Tie-95. ABC’s “Celebrity Debut” and CW’s “The Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll-Encore” 0.7; 97. CW’s “The 7th Heaven” 0.5.
 
Bottom five (total viewers): 93. CW’s “The Game” 2.14 million; 94. CW’s “Gilmore Girls” 2.08 million; 95. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” 1.77 million; 96. CW’s “The Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll-Encore” 1.59 million; 97. CW’s “7th Heaven” 1.38 million.
 
Show on the rise: “Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll,” CW, Tuesday 9 p.m. This reality talent show grew 27 percent week-to-week among viewers 18-49, from 1.1 rating to a 1.4, despite leading out of a repeat of “Gilmore Girls” at 0.8.
 
Show on the decline: “Rules of Engagement” CBS, Monday 9:30 p.m. CBS’s new comedy started hot last month but has since cooled considerably, last week posting a 3.6 rating among 18-49s, off 16 percent from a 4.3 the previous week. Last week’s rating was down 23 percent from the 4.7 the show has averaged so far this season.

 

PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 25

Network

Households

People 2+

Adults 18-49

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

CBS

7.4

8230

12

4.0

11440

11

3.5

4640

10

FOX

6.8

7600

11

4.0

11220

10

4.4

5690

12

ABC

5.9

6530

10

3.2

8980

8

3.1

4030

9

NBC

4.9

5450

8

2.6

7360

7

2.3

2960

6

CW

2.0

2230

3

1.1

3050

3

1.3

1660

4

UNI

2.0

2180

3

1.3

3590

3

1.5

2010

4

TEL

0.5

570

1

0.3

850

1

0.4

500

1

PAX

0.5

560

1

0.3

730

1

0.1

180

0

TF

0.3

350

1

0.2

530

1

0.2

320

1

AZA

0.1

100

0

0.0

130

0

0.1

80

0

* Each rating point is equivalent to 1.114 million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

SEASON-TO-DATE PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 25

Network

Households

People 2+

Adults 18-49

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

CBS

8.1

9010

13

4.5

12830

12

3.9

5050

10

ABC

6.3

7060

10

3.5

9840

9

3.5

4580

9

FOX

6.2

6960

10

3.6

10200

9

4.0

5170

11

NBC

6.1

6760

10

3.3

9410

8

3.3

4330

9

CW

2.1

2360

3

1.2

3260

3

1.3

1750

3

UNI

2.0

2190

3

1.3

3610

3

1.6

2030

4

TEL

0.5

580

1

0.3

850

1

0.4

510

1

PAX

0.4

490

1

0.2

650

1

0.1

170

0

TF

0.4

410

1

0.2

630

1

0.3

400

1

AZA

0.1

110

0

0.1

150

0

0.1

100

0

* Each rating point is equivalent to 1. 114 million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research 

 

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 25

#

PROGRAMS

Net

HOUSEHOLDS

PERSONS 2+

Rtg%

Shr

(000)

#

Rtg%

(000)

1

AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY

FOX

18.0

27

20066

1

11.3

1

2

AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY

FOX

17.9

27

19936

1

11.3

2

3

DANCING WITH THE STARS

ABC

13.5

20

15049

3

7.3

3

4

CSI

CBS

12.7

19

14110

4

7.2

4

4

DANCING W/STARS RESULTS

ABC

12.7

20

14120

6

6.7

4

4

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

12.7

19

14159

5

7.0

4

7

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES

ABC

11.3

17

12631

8

6.3

7

8

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

11.2

18

12482

9

6.1

8

9

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

10.9

17

12089

10

6.0

9

10

HOUSE

FOX

10.7

16

11901

7

6.4

10

11

DEAL OR NO DEAL-MON

NBC

10.0

15

11116

12

5.7

11

12

SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER

FOX

9.7

15

10852

10

6.0

12

13

TWO AND A HALF MEN

CBS

9.6

14

10689

16

5.3

13

13

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

9.6

16

10665

17

5.2

13

15

CRIMINAL MINDS

CBS

9.5

14

10565

17

5.2

15

15

CSI: NY

CBS

9.5

16

10544

21

5.1

15

17

LOST

ABC

9.4

15

10433

13

5.6

17

18

NCIS

CBS

9.3

14

10335

17

5.2

18

18

SURVIVOR: COOK ISLANDS

CBS

9.3

14

10337

13

5.6

18

20

COLD CASE

CBS

9.2

14

10287

21

5.1

20

21

60 MINUTES

CBS

9.1

15

10163

25

4.9

21

22

CBS NFL NATL POST GAME

CBS

9.0

17

10025

26

4.8

22

22

SURVIVOR: FIJI

CBS

9.0

14

9978

15

5.5

22

24

SHARK

CBS

8.8

15

9833

27

4.7

24

25

HEROES

NBC

8.7

13

9687

17

5.2

25

25

OCTOBER ROAD

ABC

8.7

15

9648

29

4.5

25

Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Adults 18-49
Week Ending March 25

Rank

Program

Net

Rtg%

(000)

1

AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY

FOX

11.8

15437

2

AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY

FOX

10.4

13620

3

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

9.0

11695

4

DANCING WITH THE STARS

ABC

6.4

8356

5

TIL DEATH

FOX

6.1

7918

6

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

5.4

6998

7

LOST

ABC

5.3

6945

8

24

FOX

4.6

6028

8

OCTOBER ROAD

ABC

4.6

6012

10

CRIMINAL MINDS

CBS

4.3

5672

10

DEAL OR NO DEAL-MON

NBC

4.3

5612

10

EXTREME MAKEOVER:HOME ED.

ABC

4.3

5649

13

FAMILY GUY

FOX

4.2

5493

13

SURVIVOR: FIJI - WED SPCL(S)

CBS

4.2

5436

15

CSI: NY

CBS

4.1

5346

16

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP TH 2(S)

CBS

4.0

5184

16

TWO AND A HALF MEN

CBS

4.0

5276

18

COLD CASE

CBS

3.7

4807

18

NCIS

CBS

3.7

4813

18

SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER

FOX

3.7

4854

21

RULES OF ENGAGEMENT

CBS

3.6

4745

22

BONES

FOX

3.5

4561

22

PRISON BREAK

FOX

3.5

4572

24

AMERICAN DAD

FOX

3.4

4389

24

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP FR 2(S)

CBS

3.4

4497

24

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP SA-2(S)

CBS

3.4

4438

Source: Nielsen Media Research

  

SPANISH-LANGUAGE TELEVISION (WEEKLY COLLAPSED)
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 25

#

PROGRAMS

Net

NHTI

P2+ (000)

1

FEA MAS BELLA M-F

UNI

23.0

4990

2

MUNDO DE FIERAS M-F

UNI

19.5

4194

3

AQUI Y AHORA-THU

UNI

17.8

3554

4

DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA-WE

UNI

16.9

3602

5

DUELO DE PASIONES M-F

UNI

16.5

3327

6

BAILANDO BODA SUENOS SUN

UNI

15.9

3269

7

VER PARA CREER-TUE

UNI

15.2

3154

8

CRISTINA-MON

UNI

14.6

2922

9

CASOS VIDA R: ED. ESP FRI

UNI

13.8

2932

10

SABADO GIGANTE-SAT

UNI

11.8

2243

11

HORA PICO-SUN

UNI

9.8

1921

12

CASOS FAMILIA ED ESP SAT

UNI

8.8

1583

13

ZORRO M-F

TEL

6.8

1295

14

MARINA M-F

TEL

6.0

1079

15

DECISIONES M-F

TEL

5.5

1028

15

FUTBOL LIGA MEX WED

TF

5.5

1099

17

CINE MILLONARIO

TEL

5.4

1099

18

DAME CHOCOLATE M-F

TEL

5.3

932

19

CINE LAS ESTREL1 SAT

TF

4.9

1009

20

CINE LAS ESTREL2 SUN

TF

4.6

891

21

CINE LAS ESTREL2 SAT

TF

4.1

858

22

CINE EN FAMILIA

TEL

3.7

644

23

CINE LAS ESTREL1 M-THU

TF

3.6

696

24

OBJETIVO FAMA SUN

TF

3.2

450

25

ASI ES LA VIDA M-F

TF

3.0

597

* Nielsen Hispanic Television Index; ratings based on 11.63 million Hispanic TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

HISPANIC ENGLISH-LANGUAGE VIEWING
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 25

#

PROGRAMS

Net

NHTI

P2+(000)

1

AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY

FOX

8.5

1615

1

AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY

FOX

8.5

1559

3

DANCING WITH THE STARS

ABC

6.8

1288

4

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

6.7

1191

5

TIL DEATH

FOX

4.7

917

6

FAMILY GUY

FOX

4.6

842

7

FRIDAY NIGHT SMACKDOWN

CW

4.2

948

7

GEORGE LOPEZ

ABC

4.2

575

9

PRISON BREAK

FOX

4.1

664

10

UGLY BETTY

ABC

4.0

705

* Nielsen Hispanic Television Index; ratings based on 11.63 million Hispanic TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

AFRICAN AMERICAN AUDIENCE ESTIMATES
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 18

#

PROGRAMS

Net

Rtg

P2+(000)

1

AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY

FOX

22.0

4331

2

AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY

FOX

20.2

3734

3

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

11.9

2052

4

AMERICA'S TOP MODEL-2

CW

10.9

1921

5

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

10.6

1736

6

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

9.8

1620

7

CSI: NY

CBS

8.9

1463

8

TIL DEATH

FOX

8.8

1526

9

60 MINUTES

CBS

8.6

1395

10

COLD CASE

CBS

8.1

1357

* Ratings based on 13.45 million African American TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

TOP 30 NETWORK SPORTS PROGRAMS
Ranked on Households
Week Ending March 18

#

PROGRAMS

Net

Episode

Households

Persons 2+

US Rtg%

Shr

(000)

(000)

1

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SU-3(S)-03/18/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

7.3

15

8182

11246

2

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SA-3(S)-03/17/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

7.1

15

7908

11239

3

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-SATBNS(S)-03/17/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

6.9

16

7631

10504

4

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SU-2(S)-03/18/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

6.6

15

7391

9814

5

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-SUNBNS(S)-03/18/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

6.6

14

7301

9781

6

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SA-4(S)-03/17/2007

CBS

IND VS UCLA/UNC VS MICH ST

6.5

12

7279

10613

7

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SA-2(S)-03/17/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

6.0

15

6690

9064

8

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-EVETH1(S)-03/15/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

5.9

11

6547

8876

9

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-EVEFR2(S)-03/16/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

5.8

11

6506

9085

10

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-EVETH2(S)-03/15/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

5.6

10

6195

8556

11

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-EVEFR1(S)-03/16/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

5.5

10

6119

8478

12

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SA-1(S)-03/17/2007

CBS

OHIO STATE VS XAVIER

5.4

14

5970

7760

13

FOX NEXTEL CUP WNNRS CIRC

FOX

KOBALT TOOLS 500 P.B. DLP

5.4

11

6037

8743

14

FOX NASCAR NEXTEL CUP

FOX

KOBALT TOOLS 500 P.B. DLP

5.2

12

5797

8455

15

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHMP-SU-1(S)-03/18/2007

CBS

VIRGINIA VS TENNESSEE

4.7

12

5212

6823

16

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-DAYFR2(S)-03/16/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

4.2

11

4722

5849

17

CBS NCAA CHAMP EVE TH-BNS(S)-03/15/2007

CBS

 

3.7

9

4092

5476

18

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-DAYFR1(S)-03/16/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

3.5

11

3876

4552

19

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-DAYTH2(S)-03/15/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

3.3

10

3684

4566

20

CBS NCAA BSKBL CHP-DAYTH1(S)-03/15/2007

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

3.2

11

3563

4235

21

FRIDAY NIGHT SMACKDOWN

CW

 

2.8

5

3171

4745

22

NASCAR BUSCH SERIES

ABC

ATLANTA

2.1

5

2286

3095

23

BAY HILL INVIT-GOLF SUN(S)-03/18/2007

NBC

 

2.1

5

2295

2741

24

FUTBOL LIGA MEXICANA 3/18(S)-03/18/2007

UNI

AMERICA VS GUADALAJARA

1.9

3

2122

4290

25

BAY HILL INVIT-GOLF SAT(S)-03/17/2007

NBC

 

1.7

4

1945

2352

26

NBA ON ABC-SUN 1

ABC

DALLAS AT DETROIT

1.3

3

1442

1832

27

IFL BATTLEGROUND

MNT

 

0.8

1

898

1122

28

POKER AFTER DARK MO-SAT

NBC

 

0.8

4

926

1001

29

NBC SPORTS SPECIAL 3/18-A(S)-03/18/2007

NBC

SNOWBOARD CUP

0.8

2

891

1006

30

NBC SPORTS SPECIAL 3/18-B(S)-03/18/2007

NBC

U.S. OPEN SNOWBOARDING

0.8

2

839

1012

* Note: The chart for the week ended Sept. 3 was delayed.

Source: Nielsen Media Research

 



Toni Fitzgerald is a staff writer for Media Life.




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