In spring and again in the fall, the latest circulation numbers come out on America's newspapers, and for a long time they have not been encouraging. This latest round, out two weeks ago, showed more losses, with the nation's papers down 2.8 percent on average, and dramatic declines among the top papers. The Los Angeles Times saw an 8 percent decline for the six-month period. For media buyers, this is alarming news, meaning a key local medium has become that much less effective in reaching a mass audience. How are media people reacting to these declines? What most worries them? Jouette Travis, an executive vice president and managing director for Carat, the global media service agency, has spent the past two decades buying newspapers and other media. She talks to Media Life about the circulation declines, what most worries her about them, and where advertisers will spend local dollars in place of print newspapers.


What do the record-breaking circulation drops at some of the country's largest newspapers mean for media buyers?

Actually there is all kinds of media erosion right now, not just in newspapers. Network TV is down, national news magazines are down, the Yellow Pages are down.

But newspapers are rich with content. Look at all the stuff they deliver every day, wire stories, weather, local news. They have a ton of content and it's what still makes them powerful. They control the people who create the content. 

I think the way it is delivered will change. Not as many people are going to the end of the driveway and picking it up. I think newspapers should go the way of the airlines in delivering tickets and saying, how do you want your newspaper delivered? In an email or some other downloadable format?

 
How will the latest circulation losses affect how advertisers' dollars are spent?

An important fundamental of advertising is looking at efficiency. If newspapers' overall circulation dropped 2.8 percent, but some papers lost 8 percent, they can't hide in the pack anymore.

And if circulation is going significantly south, be careful of rates. They can't raise rates as they lose circulation.

Time magazine is cutting its rates by 18 percent. That's in line with their reduced circulation. They decided to take the approach that they were not going to make advertisers pay more for less.

What about the rates for these newspapers with the biggest declines? If your circulation went down we don't want to see your rates go up 8 percent. It's really a matter of coming up with what's fair. 

 
What are your biggest worries in terms of the future of newspaper advertising?

That newspapers will try to charge more for advertising. I think it would be smart not to make undue increases. I think newspapers have to be careful about attempting to recoup losses by charging advertisers more against declines in circulation.

I think they still have a lot of content that is unique and very local. I think leveraging strength is always a better strategy than concentrating on weaknesses. 

 
If advertisers don't use newspapers, where will they go to get their message out?

I believe the internet is the fastest-growing medium and outdoor is the second fastest.

To keep people from abandoning newspapers, it would be cool for them to embrace the dot.com side of things in the way television and magazines are revisiting the internet and building up their web sites.

Some newspapers are doing this. It's more about content than format.

I think newspapers are in a good place to migrate to digital. People impute more credibility to newspapers than television news. Newspapers are boring but reliable and the voice of authority, even for advertising, and I think that translates to the internet.

Younger generations are doing less reading, but if you have the basic brand and content, they will be lured online.

Gen X and Gen Y don't make breakfast and read the paper, they go through the drive-thru. I think it's about finding an audience where you can find them.

Are media buyers altering their thinking about newspapers and looking elsewhere to place their clients? And where?

I think online more likely than other media. Online newspapers have an editorial environment that people like to use, what we call behavorially targeting, ads for cars in the sports section, for example.

It's a reflection of special interests. If you are selling something very specialized, you can choose very niche places to go.

Advertisers turn to cable television and newspapers to reach people through their special interests. This is nothing new for newspapers, it's something they are experts at.

Above all, they should avoid raising rates and look to how they can fit in long-term.