If America is the land of the free, Europe is fast becoming the land of the free newspaper, and it's by no means a short-term trend. It began more than a decade ago when Sweden’s Metro International rolled out the first of what would become a worldwide chain of free dailies.

These freesheets now account for 20 percent of Europe's newspaper market, up from nothing in just 12 years. Largely morning papers, freebies are distributed across the Continent on the public transport systems and in other high-traffic locations.

Now comes the next big thing: free home delivery, free papers delivered to homes in addition to transportation points. This latest wrinkle could dramatically jump the market share of freebies. This time, rather than starting in Sweden, it is coming from Denmark.  

That country has two seen two free national home-delivered dailies pop up in just two months, and a third, Nyhedsavisen, will launch tomorrow. The paper is owned by an Icelandic publisher, 365 Media Scandinavia. The other two were launched in August in anticipation of tomorrow’s new paper.

“I think this will be a test for home delivery,” says Aura Iordan, business analyst France’s World Association of Newspapers (WAN). Free home delivery was first tried several years ago in Iceland by 365 Media, and in the past several years Philip Anschutz introduced it in the U.S. with his Examiner chain, which now publishes in San Francisco, Washington and Baltimore.

Free home delivery could spread quickly across Europe once publishers see how it works in Denmark. Rumors are already about that Sweden will be the next testing ground for the idea.

It will then likely go global, following the tracks of the earlier free papers in markets beyond Europe. There are now 32.5 million copies of freesheets printed and distributed daily worldwide, according to WAN, representing 7 percent of the world's newspaper circulation. In the U.S. and Canada, freesheets now make up about 8 percent of the total market.

In Europe, Denmark is a leader with freesheets accounting for 65 percent of the newspaper market, according to Iordan. With tomorrow's launch of Nyhedsavisen,  the country will have six national daily freesheets and four regional ones.
 
The first wave of freesheets in Denmark hit the streets five year ago when Metro entered the market, followed by a spoiler from one of the big Danish newspaper groups.

Then last spring, 365 Media announced that it would enter the market with its home-delivered freesheet, sensing a vulnerability. Says Helgi Hermannsson, head of development at 365 Media Scandinavia: “There were no strong papers in Denmark, including the paid-for titles.”

Hermannsson says Nyhedsavisen will be a quality paper, similar to the traditional paid-for model, with a staff of 100 journalists reporting from around Denmark and 700 full-timers to deliver the papers. The plan is to deliver 400,000 copies to homes in the three biggest Danish cities, and another 100,000 to high-traffic areas around the country.

In what is considered an interesting strategy, 365 Media has set up a joint venture with the Danish post office to help cut the cost of the distribution. The paper won’t be delivered with the post, but companies could pay to have brochures and other advertising delivered along with the papers.

The 365 Media announcement last spring prompted two big Danish newspaper chains to announce similar titles. “They thought, ‘We are going to build a clone and do it faster than 365, because if we are faster we could spoil the market’,” says Thomas Bertelsen, managing director of OMD Denmark. 

Each of the three papers is aiming to distribute between 425,000 to 500,000 copies, but one problem will be finding people to do it. It's been difficult for the first two because there just aren't that many people in need of work with Denmark's low unemployment rate.

Another potential issue is whether homeowners will be receptive to receiving multiple free papers on their front steps.

One thing is certain: a coming newspaper war, both for readers and advertisers. “We are starting to see an increased pressure on ad prices, and prices are starting to fall. We think that it will increase a lot when Nyhedsavisen comes in,” says OMD's Bertelsen.

Longer term, the question will be who goes out. All three cannot survive.