Over the past four years, loads of celebrities have launched talk shows only to see them fizzle quickly. Programs hosted by Jane Pauley, Sharon Osbourne, Tony Danza and most recently “Will & Grace” star Megan Mullally lasted two seasons or less.

Perhaps syndicators are finally learning their lesson about famous bellyflops. Next week, for the first time in years, there will be no celebrities pitching talk shows at the National Association of Television Programming Executives conference next week.

That’s one of several key developments in syndication that media people need to keep an eye in 2007.

Big names often result in strong initial sampling, but it’s getting people to tune in after the first week that’s been the challenge.

That lesson of past celebrity flops seems to be that no matter how big the name, the show won’t work unless it plays to the strength of that celebrity.

That’s why Rachael Ray and Ellen DeGeneres, comfortable and relatable talkers, have thrived and Pauley and Osbourne, who often seemed cold and disinterested, bombed.

“A recognizable name doesn’t necessarily guarantee success,” says Bill Carroll, vice president and director of programming at Katz Television Group. “Where you have success is when you have a recognizable name and a product that plays to that individual’s strengths, thus the audience’s expectations are met.”

It’s possible this will not be a long-term trend but merely a one-year glitch. The only names rumored to be in the running for 2007 shows were minor celebrities like Gayle King, Oprah Winfrey’s best buddy, and Food Network host Paula Deen. If bigger names become available next year, a syndicator may bite.

Another possibility is that the market is becoming oversaturated by celebrity radio shows, which give stars a platform to present their viewers but don’t require the time commitment or interviewing skills of TV.

Whoopi Goldberg, Alexis Stewart, James Carville and Al Franken, just to name a few, already have radio programs.

“I think even the people who represent big names are a little bit more reticent to get out there in the fray,” Carroll says. “Being successful in one arena doesn’t guarantee you can host a talk show.”

Here are some other things to watch for in syndication in 2007:

Additional weekday drama strips
This fall “Law & Order: Criminal Intent” will become the first Monday-Friday one-hour drama strip in years. Most dramas are sold as weekend-only plays, such as “CSI” and “Alias.”

Many dramas already run daily weekday repeats on cable. But if “CI” proves successful, Carroll predicts that we’ll see more dramas being sold this way.

“We could be going back to the days when dramatic hours were part of the mix on a Monday-Friday basis,” he says.

More non-broadcast programs entering syndication
Canada’s “DeGrassi: The Next Generation,” Tyler Perry’s first-run syndication “House of Payne” and several Comedy Central series are available this fall. In addition, Warner Bros. is reportedly mulling a syndicated spinoff of its successful celebrity gossip site TMZ.com.

In part, the reason for this is that there’s not a great deal of demand for any upcoming off-network properties. “Two and a Half Men” is the strongest comedy available, and buyers aren’t all that excited about the show. Fading but still-powerful “Seinfeld,” “Friends” and “Everybody Loves Raymond” pull by far the best off-network ratings.

Yet more court shows
Even though ratings for the genre were down or flat during November sweeps, syndicators remain high on judge shows. They often have a bigger audience than bottom-tier talk shows, and they’re cheap to produce.

Sony Pictures’ “Judge David Young” is one of the only new shows confirmed for NATPE. Also in the works is “Celebrity Court” from Warner Bros.