With all the reports of surging internet ad growth, all at the expense of traditional media, it would be easy to assume that television revenues would be facing sure decimation.

Not so.

The latest forecast, this from ZenithOptimedia, is predicting solid if unspectacular U.S. growth of 4.8 percent through at least the next eight years. While that’s well below the 5.9 percent that the industry experienced in the 1990s, it’s far above what some have been foreseeing.

The reason for this slower growth is not surprising. “It’s due to the shift in habits of viewing and competition from other media,” explains Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia and the report’s author.

This report follows new data from the Television Bureau of Advertising reporting broadcast TV ad revenues were up 3.4 percent in the second quarter of 2006 compared to the same period the year before and up 6.8 percent for the first half.

TNS Media Intelligence, in a similar report, shows network TV ad revenue up 5.7 percent in the first half of the year compared to the first half in 2005. Ad spending was up 2.6 percent on cable TV and 4.8 percent on spot TV.

The coming years will not be without bumps, as forecast in the ZenithOptimedia report, which also includes growth projections for other parts of the Americas, based on ad and subscription revenues of 16 countries. Since the U.S. accounts for 81.6 percent of ad revenues in the Americas, the U.S. growth rates are expected to be similar to the overall figures.

Zenith forecasts that TV ad spending in the Americas will pace at 5 percent this year before falling to 2.9 percent in 2007. It is then forecast to rise gradually through the years to hit 6.6 percent in 2013, before dripping slightly to 6.2 percent in 2014. 

Over the entire period, it will average out to 5.0 percent, compared to 6.3 percent a year in the 1990s.

“Five percent is pretty respectable. It wouldn’t be characterized as a weak market, but it is not as strong as a decade ago,” says Barnard.

For the U.S., the forecast is for 4.7 percent TV ad revenue growth this year, falling to 2.9 percent next. Then the growth rate will gradually increase, hitting 6.3 percent in 2014.

Zenith also looks at the increasing importance of pay-TV subscription revenue. It reports that the Americas was the first region where pay-TV subscription revenues exceeded advertising expenditure. This happened back in 2003. Western Europe followed in 2005.

Pay-TV revenues in the Americas are predicted to grow solidly over the forecast period. They’re also forecast to grow in the U.S., although perhaps not as quickly as in the recent past. 

ZenithOptimedia predicts that the growth rate of pay-TV subscription revenue in the U.S. will fall from 8.2 percent in 2005 to 4.4 percent in 2006. It will rise slightly to hit 6.4 percent in 2009 before falling back to 4.6 percent in at the end of the forecast period.