When Nielsen Media Research sent a memo to clients last month outlining plans to start releasing average national commercial minute ratings, the cable industry professed shock. It has deep reservations about the plan, chief among them whether differences between cable and broadcast commercial breaks should result in a uniform measurement for both, as cable prefers, or different sets of data for each, as Nielsen has offered. The Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau wants a standard definition of a commercial minute to be established, and it worries about just how precise measurements for the commercial data will be. Among those researchers expressing concern were two of cable’s biggest names, Turner’s Jack Wakshlag and Lifetime’s Tim Brooks. On Friday the CAB sent a letter to Nielsen listing its many concerns, much as the broadcast networks have already done, and several are ones raised by Wakshlag and Brooks. Nielsen says it is willing to take those concerns under consideration. While Nielsen won't begin issuing commercial ratings until November, this is likely a story that will concern media people until the first ratings are issued and well afterward. Brooks, executive vice president of research at Lifetime, talks to Media Life about what he wants to hear from Nielsen, what cable networks think of the digital video recorder debate, and what new Nielsen measurements have the most potential for the future.

What are your basic beefs with the minute-by-minute commercial ratings that Nielsen is starting this fall?
 
It’s not the idea of minute by minute. It’s that we want to be sure that any data they produce that’s used for currency is reliable. It’s been a little disturbing how it’s been rolled out. It’s been framed by Nielsen as what we can produce and what our clients want. But the issue is whether the data is reliable. ...

This is not about commercial ratings, it’s about whether Nielsen can produce reliable data with its current sample. Nielsen has to step up to the plate and give us some confidence.
 

What would it take to get Nielsen and the cable industry in general on the same page on this?
 
It would be for Nielsen to explicitly own up to their responsibility to produce reliable data, which may be more communications than anything else. For reasons I can’t fathom, they haven’t seemed to have done that.

There are a lot of specific issues. There may be problems and there may not. But until you’ve checked the system for accuracy, you don’t know the answers.

You don’t know the number of national versus local ads in the minutes. Can the system do that? I don’t know. At the end of the day not everybody might be satisfied with it, but if most people agree, then we can go ahead.
 

One problem that has been mentioned is that broadcast and cable have differences in the number of minutes of national ads. How should Nielsen address that discrepancy?
 
They have to ask—and that’s part of the audit and the evaluation—what is going on? If they’re reporting national commercial minutes, then the system has to be able to distinguish between local and national cable minutes. The question then becomes, can the system be tweaked to make that distinction?

I would think agencies would be just as concerned about this as we are.

Has Nielsen been responsive thus far to cable concerns about the new system?
 
They are playing catch up. But as is often the case, they realize their initial announcement had unintended consequences. They ironically put out a client notice meant to clarify the subject, but it ended up muddling it more.

I think Nielsen has heard loud and clear that the initial announcement did communicate some wrong things. It’s interesting, [a client meeting earlier this week] was with all national clients, all in one big room, and I didn’t hear a lot of disagreement about the things I’ve just been talking about. The stakes are just enormous for any entity that serves as a currency.
 

Do you have a problem with Nielsen including Live-Plus-7 data, basically, those who watch on digital video recorders within seven days, in the commercial data?
 
If they can do that with reasonable accuracy, and I think they should be able to, then it’s fine to include it. Once the data is determined to be accurate, then it’s a business issue on what we want to trade on.

I think most of the industry is working toward some reasonable compromise. The data does have some value but it may vary. Nielsen just has to make sure whatever it is, it’s accurate.
 

If all sides can come to an agreement on the commercial ratings, how soon will they be used for upfront negotiations? Next year?
 
It’s possible. But I think that’s probably aggressive, based on history. If we can get to that point, then fine, but realistically speaking--and I hate to introduce realism--their first data won’t be available until November, and initial planning for the upfronts starts during the first quarter.

That would mean we would have to vet the system and ensure its accuracy in about six months. That would be absolute record time.

I’m willing to be a part of making that happen, but I think accurate, reliable data must come before anything. We’ve got to do this as quickly as we can, but we’ve got to do it right.
 

The broadcasters had a standoff with advertisers over use of DVR ratings for upfront negotiations. Is it as big an issue for cable, and why or why not?
 
It’s somewhat of a lesser issue, but it is an issue. Cable tends to be less delay-viewed than broadcast.

What I was hearing, before anyone had any data, as we got to the upfront, is, “We’ve got to learn more before we agree to pay for delayed viewing.”

Statements that everyone skips commercials are just wrong. Not everyone does. But no one knows what percentages view, and for how long, etc.

We did a survey and we asked viewers when you record and playback on TiVo, do you skip commercials, and something like 90 percent say they do all the time.

Later on, two-thirds of viewers said they stop for commercials, so they contradicted themselves right away. Some let the thing run, others stop for commercials they’re interested in.

We have to put metrics against it, and until we do, advertisers will say we’re not going to pay for it.
 

Of the new measurements Nielsen is planning to unveil over the coming years, which do you think will be the most significant for cable?
 
I would say it's the rollout of electronic measurement to markets beyond the top 10, which will concurrently eliminate the old diaries. Nielsen has a slide of a diary with an X through it. I don’t think they would have done that a year ago. When it’s gone, cable invariably benefits from that.

Local cable will benefit enormously, and as local cable ad sales benefit, so will national networks because ad time will be worth more and more. I think that could be the biggest overall effect of a more accurate picture of cable viewing versus broadcast.