NBC has been the only network this season to show improvement, up 12 percent over last fall’s average, from a 3.3 to a 3.7, and jumping into tie for second place during the November sweeps. But the big question now is how much of that fall momentum NBC can sustain. Much of the growth has been driven by “Sunday Night Football,” which ends in January. Though the network has a few solid veteran shows returning in January, such as “Crossing Jordan” and “The Apprentice,” and the only new breakout hit in “Heroes,” it will miss “SNF’s” ability to balance out low-rated shows like “Friday Night Lights,” “30 Rock” and “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip.” NBC has showed patience with the shows thus far, giving all three full-season orders despite anemic 18-49 ratings. NBC Entertainment president Kevin Reilly has promised to continue his mantra of patience with such quality shows, and that will really be put to the test come spring. That’s just one of the issues facing the networks at midseason. Others include whether Fox can ride “American Idol” to another victory, if “Lost’s” no-repeat strategy will succeed for ABC, and whether CBS will make more changes after a disappointing fall. Chris Allen, vice president and associate director of national broadcast for GSD&M in Chicago, talks to Media Life about the fall’s biggest successes, biggest surprises, and what’s in store for NBC over the coming months.
 
Who has been the fall's big winner among the networks?
 
NBC is the biggest winner of the new season, driven by a ratings rebound. This is due in large part to “Sunday Night Football,” but I think the addition of NFL did what it was supposed to do: bring viewers back to NBC.

As the only broadcast network to show year-to-year growth in key demos, they are now at parity with CBS among adults 18-49, and just a couple of tenths behind ABC. NBC has also aged down slightly, while ABC, CBS and Fox have all aged up.
 

How about the biggest loser?
 
It has been a lackluster season for most, with The CW delivering the most disappointing showing. Despite a heavy schedule of returning series, the network struggled to find its core audience. There has been a slight rebound in recent weeks, but the combination of viewer confusion on where to tune in and a couple of scheduling shuffles prevented what could have been a big boost versus the WB and UPN.
 

What's been the biggest surprise?
 
I think a lot of folks were surprised at the success of [NBC’s] “Heroes,” but we found great storytelling in the pilot and subsequent episodes. It was certainly an example of an upfront presentation clip that didn't do the series justice, so it reinforces the importance of taking the time to screen all pilots and learn all you can about what's happening on the set.

I think ABC’s “Grey's Anatomy” outperformed expectations on Thursday, running away with the win against “CSI.”

The demise of Fox’s “Prison Break” has been somewhat of a surprise, because the quality of the show is still there.

CBS’s “Shark” had breakthrough potential, but I think the over-saturation of crime-related dramas is starting to wear on viewers' appetites for new programming in that genre.

The double-digit decline of ABC’s “Lost” was also a big surprise, but the show still delivers a huge rating.
 

How do you see the season going forward? There will obviously be a momentum shift with the return of "Idol," do you anticipate any other major shifts in momentum?
 
“Idol” will definitely put Fox back in the game, but I think the biggest question is how long NBC will support some of its struggling shows like “Studio 60,” “Friday Night Lights” and “30 Rock.” I'm happy to see them give good shows a fighting chance, and with “The Black Donnellys” and “The Apprentice” coming up, I hope they will have renewed interest in their primetime schedule.

ABC needs to do some fine-tuning, but it was only a matter of time before the enormous ratings of “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” would come down to earth, so I think their focus should be on stability.

CBS has lived by the mantra of stability for years, but some of their shows are getting a little stale, so I think it would be wise for them to test some new concepts this spring.
 

How would you rate ABC's decision to take "Lost" off the air for three months in order to avoid airing repeats -- was it smart or, considering "Day Break's" struggles, a bust?
 
I don't think ABC had a choice about taking “Lost” off the air. The production on the show is incredibly elaborate, and I think they needed to rest the series to catch up with production. I can't imagine any show that would have replaced “Lost” during the hiatus, but “Day Break” was just a dog from the beginning.

 
Will "Idol" be as strong as last year, stronger, weaker, or considerably weaker? Why?
 
I think “Idol” is still trucking right along, and because it's water cooler television, the fact that we utilize live-only ratings to monitor performance will work to its advantage. I can't conceive that there will be any growth this season, and frankly, Fox probably doesn't want more growth or they'd be hard-pressed to find advertisers with budgets big enough to buy it.

I do think this may finally be the season that we start to see some minor fall-off, but I think it will be negligible. Fox is brilliant to have protected the show, building viewers' excitement for a new season. It's a great example of a show that doesn't have to push the envelope to draw strong delivery.
 

Who will finish first this season among adults 18-49?
 
Despite a weak start in September, Fox will pull off a victory, led by “Idol.” ABC and CBS should be close behind. ABC gets the younger audience, but CBS has the advantage of dramas that repeat well. NBC is a bit of a dark horse, but I always like to pull for the long shot!