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Looking out, a
dandy 2007 at the Bijou


Box office receipts could grow by 7 percent

Jan 3, 2007

Media people would have to go some way to over-estimate the importance of movies. It's a huge ad category in itself, ranking somewhere  in the top five or 10 in terms of spending, depending on who's counting, but its health also speaks volumes about the American zeitgeist, as a leading indicator of our passion for escape.

And so, after the pessimism and gloom over the state of the box office in 2005, this past year, 2006, will come as a relief to many. Final box office numbers for the year are expected to be up about 5 percent over 2006, to $9.4 billion. Total ad spending could be up even more.

What’s more, 2007 is looking even stronger. “I would expect this year there to be a number of all-time records broken in terms of box office,” says Michael Gubbins, editor at Screen International, an international film magazine.

Box office revenue could top $10 billion for the first time ever. “We currently think that the full year will see about a 7 percent increase, which would be very strong,” says Charlotte Jones, cinema analyst at Screen Digest, a London media research firm. “That would be a strong landmark for the U.S. box office.”

Driving that growth: a raft of blockbusters set to reach moviehouses this summer. It looks to be a year chock-a-block with brand-name sequels on a level that experts say is almost unheard off. 

Among the big-name sequels out in May alone are “Shrek the Third,” the final Pirates movie, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” and "Spider-Man 3," all of which Jones believes have the potential to gross over $300 million at the box office.

Then out later in the summer are the fifth of the giant Harry Potter franchise, “Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix,” and a movie that is not a sequel but comes with big brand recognition, “The Simpsons Movie,” based on the popular “Simpsons” TV show. 

“All of those five are extremely successful brands, and none have shown any signs of dropping off yet,” says Gubbins. “I can’t see any of them failing.”

There are also strong expectations for “Bourne Ultimatum,” the third movie in the “Bourne Supremacy” series, the “Transformers,” based on the popular toys and cartoons, and “Ratatouille,” a Disney/Pixar movie about a rat who wants to become a chef.

The one worry, with some many movies coming out back to back, is cannabalization: movie-goers choosing to skip some they might otherwise see in order to see others, reasoning that they can always catch them on DVD.

If is this past summer is an indication, that is not a major worry. Movie-goers found the time, and Screen Digest's Jones says they've been trained do so. “People are used to the idea that the summer represents the best of the movies."

Another interesting trend to watch for this year, beyond the big brand releases, will be 3D movies, which the big studios are looking to as the next big thing as home cinemas get more sophisticated. This year, “Meet the Robinsons” is set to be released March at 500 digital 3D movie houses. Then in November comes “Beowolf,” to be seen on 1,000 3D screens.

Meanwhile, in other popcult, 20th Century Fox’s “Night at the Museum” won the box office over the weekend, ahead of Sony’s “The Pursuit of Happyness” and Paramount’s “Dreamgirls.” “Charlotte’s Web,” also from Paramount, was in fourth, and MGM’s “Rocky Balboa” squeaked in to fill out the top five.

In DVD rentals for the week ended Dec.24, “The Devil Wears Prada” stayed in first place, ahead of chart debuter “Little Miss Sunshine.” “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” was third, “Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby” came in fourth, and “My Super Ex-Girlfriend” rounded out the top five.

On iTunes for the week ended Sunday, Beyonce held the top spot with “Irreplaceable,” Fergie was second with “Fergalicious,” and The Fray moved up to third with chart perennial “How to Save a Life.” In fourth was “It Ends Tonight” from The All-American Rejects, followed by “Say it Right” by Nelly Furtado.

In books, Mitch Albom’s “For One More Day” remained at the top of both the New York Times hardcover fiction list and the USA Today top 150, while Barack Omaba’s “The Audacity of Hope” was first on the Times’ hardcover nonfiction list and third on USA Today’s list. “The Memory Keeper’s Daughter” by Kim Edwards topped the Times’ paperback fiction list and was sixth on the USA Today list, while the top book on the Times paperback nonfiction list, “The Pursuit of Happyness” by Chris Gardner, didn’t even crack the top 10 on the USA Today list – it came in 24th.

 

TOP MOVIES
Weekend Box Office Estimates
Weekend of Dec. 29 - 31, 2006

Rank

MOVIE

Engagements

Box office (millions)

1

Night at the Museum (20th Century Fox)

3768

$37.80

2

The Pursuit of Happyness (Sony)

2870

$19.30

3

Dreamgirls (Paramount)

852

$15.50

4

Charlotte’s Web (Paramount)

3745

$12.00

5

Rocky Balboa (MGM)

3019

$11.35

6

The Good Shepherd (Universal)

2218

$11.25

7

Eragon

2985

$8.48

8

We Are Marshall (Warner Bros.)

2606

$8.03

9

Happy Feet (Warner Bros.)

2565

$7.84

10

The Holiday (Sony)

2698

$6.78

Source: Yahoo Movies

 

IMDb TOP DVD RENTALS
Week ending Dec. 24, 2006

Rank

TITLE

Last week

1

The Devil Wears Prada

1

2

Little Miss Sunshine

--

3

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

2

4

Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

3

5

My Super Ex-Girlfriend

--

6

Invincible

--

7

Superman Returns

4

8

Miami Vice

5

9

Step Up

--

10

All the King’s Men

--

Source: IMDB

 

ITUNES TOP 10 SONG DOWNLOADS
for week ended Sunday, Dec. 31, 2006

Rank

TITLE

1

Irreplaceable, Beyonce

2

Fergalicious, Fergie

3

How to Save a Life, The Fray

4

It Ends Tonight, The All-American Rejects

5

Say it Right, Nelly Furtado

6

Smack That (Dirty), Akon feat. Eminem

7

I Wanna Love You, Akon feat. Snoop Dogg

8

My Love (Single Version), Justin Timberlake feat. T.I.

9

Welcome to the Black Parade, My Chemical Romance

10

Keep Holding On (From “Eragon”), Avril Lavigne

Source: iTunes

 

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending Dec.24, 2006

Fiction (hardback)

Rank

TITLE

Last week

Weeks on chart

1

For One More Day by Mitch Albom

1

13

2

Cross by James Patterson

2

6

3

Next by Michael Crichton

3

4

4

Dear John by Nicholas Sparks

4

8

5

Hannibal Rising by Thomas Harris

5

3

Nonfiction (hardback)

1

The Audacity of Hope by Barack Obama

1

10

2

The Innocent Man by John Grisham

2

11

3

Marley & Me by John Grogan

3

62

4

Culture Warrior by Bill O’Reilly

4

13

5

Palestine Peace not Apartheid by Jimmy Carter

5

5

Fiction (paperback)

1

The Memory Keeper’s Daughter by Kim Edwards

 

27

2

Cell by Stephen King

 

5

3

S is for Silence by Sue Grafton

 

4

4

The Five People You Meet in Heaven by Mitch Albom

 

6

5

The Tenth Circle by Jodi Picoult

 

8

Nonfiction (paperback)

1

The Pursuit of Happyness by Chris Gardner with Quincy Troupe and Mim Eichler

 

5

2

Flags of Our Fathers by James Bradley with Ron Powers

 

24

3

Running with Scissors by Augusten Burroughs

 

124

4

The Iraq Study Group Report by James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton et al.

 

3

5

The Glass Castle by Jeannette Walls

 

50

Source: New York Times

 

USA TODAY BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending Dec. 24, 2006

Rank

TITLE

Last week

1

For One More Day by Mitch Albom

1

2

Eragon by Christopher Paolini

2

3

The Audacity of Hope by Barack Obama

3

4

Cross by James Patterson

5

5

The Innocent Man by John Grisham

4

6

The Memory Keeper’s Daughter by Kim Edwards

7

7

Next by Michael Crichton

6

8

Dear John by Nicholas Sparks

10

9

Culture Warrior by Bill O’Reilly

11

10

Hannibal Rising by Thomas Harris

9

Source: USA Today

 



Heidi Dawley is a staff writer for Media Life.




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