Web could well become fourth-largest medium
By Heidi Dawley Apr 11, 2006
We’re inclined to see the internet, old as it now is, as still the baby of all media, growing at a gangbusters pace but from a small base.
It is indeed, but that’s about to change, predicts a new forecast for global ad spending.
The gangbusters pace will continue, but the base is getting larger by the day, and within a short few years the internet could well become the world’s fourth-largest medium, behind only television, newspapers and magazines.
Next year, ZenithOptimedia predicts the internet will surpass outdoor advertising, and in a few years after that it will move past radio.
Just when it will pass radio is not entirely clear, but it seems destined to happen, says Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia, which has just released its global spending forecast for the years through 2008.
“We don’t think that the internet will overtake radio in our forecast period,” says Barnard. “But it will be roughly the same size as radio and catching up fast. It may well overtake within a few years after our forecast period.”
The company’s forecast shows that globally, between 2005 and 2008, internet advertising expenditure will grow a total of 72 percent. That’s a 19.9 percent annual average growth rate.
“The internet is growing three times faster than the advertising market as a whole,” says Barnard. Overall global ad spending is forecast to grow at 5.6 percent a year on average.
Though outdoor is expected to grow at a faster pace, at about 6.8 percent per year for the period, by next year it will account for 5.5 percent of total global advertising expenditures, while the internet will claim 6.1 percent, up from 4.5 percent in 2005.
By 2008 the internet is expected to account for 6.5 percent of all global advertising expenditure.
Radio, meanwhile, is growing at a much slower annual rate of about 3.0 percent, and as it does its share of spending is slipping. From 8.5 percent in 2005, ZenithOptimedia expects radio to fall to 7.9 percent by 2008.
But even at its fast pace, the internet will still lag far behind the next-largest category, magazines. While global advertising expenditure on the internet is forecast to be $31 billion in 2008, magazines are forecast to weigh in at $61 billion.
No surprise, the internet is growing fastest in some of the fast-growing developing countries where it is not well established at this point.
The fastest-growing internet market is forecast to be Russia, where advertising spending on the medium is expected to shoot up a total of 405 percent between 2005 and 2008. Poland ranks second with growth forecast at 345 percent.
Yet, even in the U.S. and Britain, two countries where the medium is well established, internet spending is forecast to hit 57 percent and 86 percent total for the period 2005 to 2008.
The forecast also shows that despite the rampant growth of the internet during the forecast period, there are signs of a slight slowdown.
Globally, ZenithOptimedia says that internet advertising spending grew 26 percent in 2005. The company forecasts that figure will grow 29 percent in 2006, 18 percent in 2007 and 13 percent in 2008.
“It has to slow down really, because it has been growing so rapidly. In part this is just a function of the scale. It is getting so large. But it is still adding plenty of dollars,” says Barnard.
Global ad spending by medium Years 2005-2008 U.S. dollars (millions)
Medium/year
2005
2006
2007
2008
Newspapers
118,952
123,474
127,813
131,850
Magazines
53,067
55,337
58,013
60,646
Television
146,159
154,835
163,491
172,694
Radio
33,888
34,878
35,930
37,021
Cinema
1,666
1,788
1,921
2,075
Outdoor
21,641
23,099
24,629
26,392
>Internet
17,764
22,900
27,050
30,621
ZenithOptimedia
Meanwhile, elsewhere on the internet during the week ended April 2, Microsoft, Yahoo, Time Warner, Google and eBay took their customary spots as the top five parent companies, according to Nielsen//NetRatings.
GUS Plc was the top advertiser for the seventh straight week, with Vonage, Netflix, Classes USA and United Online right behind. Verizon fell out of the top five, from No. 3 to No. 7.
The top five advertising sites during the week were Yahoo, MySpace, MSN, AOL.com and Juno. That knocked iWon.com out of the top five, from No. 5 to No. 10.
Average computer sessions per person remained even at 16, though average domains visited per person fell 2.6 percent from 39 to 38. Average PC time per person was also down about 2.8 percent, from 16 hours and 56 minutes to 16 hours an 27 minutes.
Top 25 parent companies Week Ended April 2
#
Parent
Unique Audience (000)
Reach %
Time spent per person (hh:mm:ss)
1
Microsoft
77,710
59.7
0:42:06
2
Yahoo!
71,461
54.9
1:07:46
3
Time Warner
67,799
52.1
1:49:19
4
Google
62,111
47.7
0:21:11
5
eBay
30,712
23.6
0:55:41
6
News Corp. Online
28,587
22.0
0:44:18
7
InterActiveCorp
26,227
20.2
0:13:47
8
Amazon
20,718
15.9
0:11:58
9
Landmark Communications
17,537
13.5
0:21:30
10
RealNetworks
16,889
13.0
0:22:12
11
Walt Disney Internet Group
16,078
12.4
0:17:21
12
Apple Computer
15,732
12.1
0:31:53
13
New York Times Company
15,069
11.6
0:09:51
14
Bank of America
12,222
9.4
0:28:43
15
AT&T Inc.
12,098
9.3
0:16:36
16
Verizon Communications
12,043
9.3
0:16:38
17
CNET Networks
11,102
8.5
0:07:21
18
E.W. Scripps Company
10,647
8.2
0:06:11
19
United Online
10,505
8.1
0:35:41
20
Viacom
10,295
7.9
0:24:24
21
Wikipedia
10,232
7.9
0:06:42
22
CBS Corporation
10,226
7.9
0:11:23
23
Gannett
9,653
7.4
0:09:46
24
Comcast Corp.
9,026
6.9
0:24:22
25
Daum Communications
7,970
6.1
0:05:09
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings
Top 25 brands Week Ended April 2
Parent
Unique Audience (000)
Reach %
Time spent per person (hh:mm:ss)
1
Yahoo!
71,010
54.6
1:07:50
2
Google
60,743
46.7
0:20:36
3
MSN
60,632
46.6
0:36:55
4
Microsoft
59,618
45.8
0:17:16
5
AOL
46,339
35.6
2:26:16
6
eBay
26,811
20.6
0:58:37
7
MySpace
19,478
15.0
0:56:18
8
Weather Channel
16,529
12.7
0:22:31
9
Amazon
16,510
12.7
0:11:48
10
Ask Search Network
16,373
12.6
0:12:43
11
Real
16,355
12.6
0:22:01
12
Apple
15,732
12.1
0:31:53
13
MapQuest
15,480
11.9
0:06:20
14
CNN
11,629
8.9
0:24:02
15
Bank of America
10,218
7.9
0:31:15
16
Wikipedia
10,175
7.8
0:06:37
17
About.com
9,744
7.5
0:03:16
18
Comcast
7,978
6.1
0:26:24
19
Lycos Network
7,970
6.1
0:05:09
20
Gorilla Nation Media
7,775
6.0
0:08:51
21
PayPal
7,647
5.9
0:12:28
22
Blogger
7,360
5.7
0:08:25
23
ESPN
7,037
5.4
0:18:31
24
IMDb - Internet Movie Database
6,923
5.3
0:07:33
25
Netscape
6,506
5.0
0:13:18
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings
Top 25 advertisers (excludes house ads) Week Ended April 2
#
Company
Impressions (000)
1
GUS Plc
3,346,049
2
Vonage Holdings Corp
3,340,247
3
Netflix, Inc.
1,645,027
4
Classes USA, Inc.
1,606,111
5
United Online, Inc.
1,389,231
6
The News Corporation Limited
1,318,538
7
Verizon Communications, Inc.
1,244,282
8
Ameriquest Mortgage Company
986,981
9
E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corp.
832,710
10
Providian Financial Corporation
651,182
11
LowerMyBills.com, Inc.
633,483
12
Napster
594,840
13
NexTag, Inc.
578,484
14
Viacom Inc
519,558
15
BellSouth Corporation
463,744
16
Dell Computer Corporation
459,552
17
Monster Worldwide, Inc.
459,510
18
Bank of America Corporation
453,314
19
American InterContinental University
446,176
20
QuinStreet
438,662
21
InterActiveCorp
420,344
22
HSBC Holdings plc
406,629
23
Low Rate Source
405,519
24
Scottrade, Inc.
379,278
25
Ask Jeeves, Inc.
366,711
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings AdRelevance
Top 25 advertising sites (excludes house ads) Week Ended April 2