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Move over, radio,
let the internet pass


Web could well become fourth-largest medium

Apr 11, 2006

We’re inclined to see the internet, old as it now is, as still the baby of all media, growing at a gangbusters pace but from a small base.

It is indeed, but that’s about to change, predicts a new forecast for global ad spending.

The gangbusters pace will continue, but the base is getting larger by the day, and within a short few years the internet could well become the world’s fourth-largest medium, behind only television, newspapers and magazines.

Next year, ZenithOptimedia predicts the internet will surpass outdoor advertising, and in a few years after that it will move past radio.

Just when it will pass radio is not entirely clear, but it seems destined to happen, says Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia, which has just released its global spending forecast for the years through 2008.

“We don’t think that the internet will overtake radio in our forecast period,” says Barnard. “But it will be roughly the same size as radio and catching up fast. It may well overtake within a few years after our forecast period.”

The company’s forecast shows that globally, between 2005 and 2008, internet advertising expenditure will grow a total of 72 percent. That’s a 19.9 percent annual average growth rate.

“The internet is growing three times faster than the advertising market as a whole,” says Barnard. Overall global ad spending is forecast to grow at 5.6 percent a year on average.

Though outdoor is expected to grow at a faster pace, at about 6.8 percent per year for the period, by next year it will account for 5.5 percent of total global advertising expenditures, while the internet will claim 6.1 percent, up from 4.5 percent in 2005.

By 2008 the internet is expected to account for 6.5 percent of all global advertising expenditure.

Radio, meanwhile, is growing at a much slower annual rate of about 3.0 percent, and as it does its share of spending is slipping. From 8.5 percent in 2005, ZenithOptimedia expects radio to fall to 7.9 percent by 2008.

But even at its fast pace, the internet will still lag far behind the next-largest category, magazines. While global advertising expenditure on the internet is forecast to be $31 billion in 2008, magazines are forecast to weigh in at $61 billion.

No surprise, the internet is growing fastest in some of the fast-growing developing countries where it is not well established at this point.

The fastest-growing internet market is forecast to be Russia, where advertising spending on the medium is expected to shoot up a total of 405 percent between 2005 and 2008. Poland ranks second with growth forecast at 345 percent.

Yet, even in the U.S. and Britain, two countries where the medium is well established, internet spending is forecast to hit 57 percent and 86 percent total for the period 2005 to 2008.

The forecast also shows that despite the rampant growth of the internet during the forecast period, there are signs of a slight slowdown.

Globally, ZenithOptimedia says that internet advertising spending grew 26 percent in 2005. The company forecasts that figure will grow 29 percent in 2006, 18 percent in 2007 and 13 percent in 2008.

“It has to slow down really, because it has been growing so rapidly. In part this is just a function of the scale. It is getting so large. But it is still adding plenty of dollars,” says Barnard.

Global ad spending by medium
Years 2005-2008
U.S. dollars (millions)

Medium/year 2005 2006 2007 2008
Newspapers 118,952 123,474 127,813 131,850
Magazines 53,067 55,337 58,013 60,646
Television 146,159 154,835 163,491 172,694
Radio 33,888 34,878 35,930 37,021
Cinema 1,666 1,788 1,921 2,075
Outdoor 21,641 23,099 24,629 26,392
>Internet 17,764 22,900 27,050 30,621
ZenithOptimedia



Meanwhile, elsewhere on the internet during the week ended April 2, Microsoft, Yahoo, Time Warner, Google and eBay took their customary spots as the top five parent companies, according to Nielsen//NetRatings.

GUS Plc was the top advertiser for the seventh straight week, with Vonage, Netflix, Classes USA and United Online right behind. Verizon fell out of the top five, from No. 3 to No. 7.

The top five advertising sites during the week were Yahoo, MySpace, MSN, AOL.com and Juno. That knocked iWon.com out of the top five, from No. 5 to No. 10.

Average computer sessions per person remained even at 16, though average domains visited per person fell 2.6 percent from 39 to 38. Average PC time per person was also down about 2.8 percent, from 16 hours and 56 minutes to 16 hours an 27 minutes.

 

Top 25 parent companies
Week Ended April 2

#

Parent

Unique Audience (000)

Reach %

Time spent per person (hh:mm:ss)

1

Microsoft

77,710

59.7

0:42:06

2

Yahoo!

71,461

54.9

1:07:46

3

Time Warner

67,799

52.1

1:49:19

4

Google

62,111

47.7

0:21:11

5

eBay

30,712

23.6

0:55:41

6

News Corp. Online

28,587

22.0

0:44:18

7

InterActiveCorp

26,227

20.2

0:13:47

8

Amazon

20,718

15.9

0:11:58

9

Landmark Communications

17,537

13.5

0:21:30

10

RealNetworks

16,889

13.0

0:22:12

11

Walt Disney Internet Group

16,078

12.4

0:17:21

12

Apple Computer

15,732

12.1

0:31:53

13

New York Times Company

15,069

11.6

0:09:51

14

Bank of America

12,222

9.4

0:28:43

15

AT&T Inc.

12,098

9.3

0:16:36

16

Verizon Communications

12,043

9.3

0:16:38

17

CNET Networks

11,102

8.5

0:07:21

18

E.W. Scripps Company

10,647

8.2

0:06:11

19

United Online

10,505

8.1

0:35:41

20

Viacom

10,295

7.9

0:24:24

21

Wikipedia

10,232

7.9

0:06:42

22

CBS Corporation

10,226

7.9

0:11:23

23

Gannett

9,653

7.4

0:09:46

24

Comcast Corp.

9,026

6.9

0:24:22

25

Daum Communications

7,970

6.1

0:05:09

Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

 

Top 25 brands
Week Ended April 2

 

Parent

Unique Audience (000)

Reach %

Time spent per person (hh:mm:ss)

1

Yahoo!

71,010

54.6

1:07:50

2

Google

60,743

46.7

0:20:36

3

MSN

60,632

46.6

0:36:55

4

Microsoft

59,618

45.8

0:17:16

5

AOL

46,339

35.6

2:26:16

6

eBay

26,811

20.6

0:58:37

7

MySpace

19,478

15.0

0:56:18

8

Weather Channel

16,529

12.7

0:22:31

9

Amazon

16,510

12.7

0:11:48

10

Ask Search Network

16,373

12.6

0:12:43

11

Real

16,355

12.6

0:22:01

12

Apple

15,732

12.1

0:31:53

13

MapQuest

15,480

11.9

0:06:20

14

CNN

11,629

8.9

0:24:02

15

Bank of America

10,218

7.9

0:31:15

16

Wikipedia

10,175

7.8

0:06:37

17

About.com

9,744

7.5

0:03:16

18

Comcast

7,978

6.1

0:26:24

19

Lycos Network

7,970

6.1

0:05:09

20

Gorilla Nation Media

7,775

6.0

0:08:51

21

PayPal

7,647

5.9

0:12:28

22

Blogger

7,360

5.7

0:08:25

23

ESPN

7,037

5.4

0:18:31

24

IMDb - Internet Movie Database

6,923

5.3

0:07:33

25

Netscape

6,506

5.0

0:13:18

Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

 

Top 25 advertisers 
(excludes house ads)
Week Ended April 2

#

Company

Impressions (000)

1

GUS Plc

3,346,049

2

Vonage Holdings Corp

3,340,247

3

Netflix, Inc.

1,645,027

4

Classes USA, Inc.

1,606,111

5

United Online, Inc.

1,389,231

6

The News Corporation Limited

1,318,538

7

Verizon Communications, Inc.

1,244,282

8

Ameriquest Mortgage Company

986,981

9

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corp.

832,710

10

Providian Financial Corporation

651,182

11

LowerMyBills.com, Inc.

633,483

12

Napster

594,840

13

NexTag, Inc.

578,484

14

Viacom Inc

519,558

15

BellSouth Corporation

463,744

16

Dell Computer Corporation

459,552

17

Monster Worldwide, Inc.

459,510

18

Bank of America Corporation

453,314

19

American InterContinental University

446,176

20

QuinStreet

438,662

21

InterActiveCorp

420,344

22

HSBC Holdings plc

406,629

23

Low Rate Source

405,519

24

Scottrade, Inc.

379,278

25

Ask Jeeves, Inc.

366,711

Source: Nielsen//NetRatings AdRelevance

 

Top 25 advertising sites
(excludes house ads)
Week Ended April 2

 

Company

Impressions (000)

1

Yahoo!

17,477,407

2

myspace

6,743,282

3

MSN

5,631,557

4

AOL.com

578,949

5

Juno

403,534

6

The Weather Channel

358,787

7

Classmates

358,358

8

New York Times

352,504

9

NetZero

341,307

10

iWon

315,425

11

MSNBC

293,306

12

eBay

287,825

13

CNN

268,779

14

Realtor.com

260,280

15

ESPN.com

247,470

16

Excite

247,071

17

Pogo

230,017

18

The Weather Underground

192,848

19

EarthLink

175,258

20

IMDb

171,535

21

Netscape

168,382

22

Drudge Report

164,367

23

FOXNEWS.COM

150,882

24

CNN Money

142,959

25

About.com

139,651

Source: Nielsen//NetRatings AdRelevance

 

Average use
Week Ended April 2

 

 

Current Week

Last Week

% Change

 

Sessions/Visits per Person

16

16

0

 

Domains Visited per Person

38

39

-2.56

 

PC Time per Person

16:27:14

16:55:36

-2.79

 

Active Digital Media Universe

130,126,506

130,561,849

-0.33

 

Current Digital Media Universe Estimate

207,196,239

207,184,387

0.01

Source: Nielsen//Net Ratings AdRelevance

 



Heidi Dawley is a staff writer for Media Life.




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