Most media people agree that NBC’s new fall shows look the most promising among the five English-language networks, and apparently web users agree with them. According to a new report released by PropheSEE, the online buzz monitoring arm of Interpublic’s Consumer Experience Practice, four new NBC shows rank among the top five in amount of buzz generated online about the new season. In fact, NBC generated a dominant 57 percent of online buzz, compared with second-place ABC at 18 percent. NBC’s “Heroes,” the drama about people who think they have special powers, ranked No. 1 at 26 percent of all buzz, followed by the network’s “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip” with 20.4 percent. Fox’s “Vanished” was No. 3, followed by NBC’s “30 Rock” and “Friday Night Lights.” But the question is whether that actually means anything good for NBC. After all, several online buzz trackers last year rated “The Apprentice: Martha Stewart” the new season’s most-buzzed-about new show, and it turned out to be a huge bomb. And the recent lukewarm box office take for internet sensation “Snakes on a Plane” have many people wondering just how much web buzz really matters. Stacey Lynn Koerner, president of The Consumer Experience Practice, talks with Media Life about web buzz, why “Heroes” is getting so much of it, and which five shows have hit potential.

How important is web buzz for a new program? Does it guarantee that people will actually watch the show, or are they just interested in talking about it?
 
There are no guarantees. The internet is simply a new channel for word-of-mouth, an area that marketers and programmers have been tapping for decades. The difference today is that word-of-mouth used to be more about personal networks of influence within local communities.

Today, the internet has turned individuals into channels themselves, and their reach is extensive. How viewers feel about programs is no longer shared to the extent of friends and family, it can be millions of individuals. So, buzz can be important, especially if the sentiment is shared among a wide audience or reported on by other media. 
 
That said, not everyone participates on the internet and not every show is going to reach its core audience there. Television reaches a variety of “viewers” – some highly engaged, some loyal but dispassionate, others who are just passing through.

People who talk about programs on the internet are likely highly engaged TV fans who will sample new shows and share their opinions with many others. You could use the same analogy for gardening or home improvement or book clubs. People who are interested in discussing these topics online are likely also practitioners at some level in their lives.

The internet is simply one way of extending your experience with an activity or interest one is passionate about, but I’m sure there are lots of gardeners out there who don’t consult the internet too.
 

Why is “Heroes” generating so much buzz? Is it simply because it's the sort of sci-fi-type program that tends to stir web types into a frenzy?
 
Not at all.

“Heroes” exemplifies a new cultural interest in superheroes and, in particular, what we call a “becoming” theme. Think Buffy who learns she’s a vampire slayer, Clark Kent who learns he’s Superman (“Smallville”).

At a time in our society when danger is lurking everywhere, villains are disguised as everyday people and heroes are few and far between, this kind of movement is not surprising.

Why has the buzz on “Studio 60” declined?
 
This is really a function of the over-hyped media attention regarding the inside Hollywood battle to produce the show as well as the debate around its placement on the schedule. Once NBC moved the show out of Thursday night and away from stiff competition (“Grey’s Anatomy”), much of the conversation settled. 
 

Why the big jump in messages about “Vanished?”
 
Keep in mind that these are fan messages from May and June. Most of May really comprised the last two weeks from the time the networks announced their schedules. This is also a show that benefits from cast members who had large fan followings in other shows that have been cancelled.

Absent a show to follow, fans will adjust their energies and follow the talent. This phenomena works against the networks at times as well. Disenfranchised fans of canceled shows can sometimes launch negative campaigns against new replacement series.
 

Are there any shows whose negative buzz outweighs the positive? Why?
 
Most shows’ largest sentiment scores come from neutral messages, not negative or positive. There are a few shows that have more negative than positive sentiment from time to time, but at this stage of analysis it’s mostly neutral as fans exchange information about the programs, cast members, background, etc.
 

The study finds that not a lot of people are talking about legal dramas, which used to be a hot genre on TV. Has it burned itself out, or is this simply a reflection of webbies' differences with more mainstream TV viewers?
 
In general we’ve begun to see declining interest in procedural dramas, whether they are investigative or legal.

This really has more to do with the genre than a difference between internet and mass audiences. Viewers have many options in this genre already, so new entries have to work hard to showcase their point of difference.
 

There's been some talk lately about how the web has changed anticipation of new seasons. Are people more aware now of what new shows are going to be on because they're exposed to them on the web? Does this help come fall?
 
Viewer interest in television has not changed significantly over time. The marketing efforts we see from major programmers are merely an answer to competing in a bigger marketplace of ideas.

Those who are interested in new TV shows will seek information through entertainment magazines, TV newsmagazines [like] “ET” and “Access Hollywood,” viewer blogs, etc.

The more information you know, the more credible you are in online fan cultures. The web simply enriches the passion for these folks.

The challenge for entertainment marketers is really for those who are on the fringe, where television is a part of life, but not necessarily a passion. Life is faster with more options--and every marketer, not just entertainment marketers--is challenged in getting its messages across.

The question isn’t really whether people are more aware as much as whether they’re better informed. Today viewers have opportunities to see previews and full-length pilots before the shows even premiere. This gives us a much better sense of what may or may not work with viewers once the season is underway.
 

Based on this study and past fall TV trends, which shows do you expect to be hits come fall?
 
PropheSEE is about which shows are likely to generate engaged fans, not mass audiences. A hit is subjective depending on the parties involved, i.e., a 4 household share on ABC is not a healthy sign, but is acceptable on CW.

That said, there are several shows that have caught our attention enough to want to watch carefully through the fourth quarter. Here’s one from each network: “Heroes” (NBC), “Vanished” (Fox), “Jericho” (CBS), “Ugly Betty” (ABC) and “Runaway” (CW).