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Univision's sale
will bring little change


At least in the near-term, say media analysts

Jul 7, 2006

With the sale of Univision last week, Wall Street media analysts were fast at work computing whether the buyout team, led by Hollywood mogul Haim Saban, paid too much for the No. 1 Spanish-language broadcaster.

Media people had a more practical concern: What changes they could expect under the new owners.

The answer, in sum: Little if any, at least in the near term, media analysts and industry executives tell Media Life. They foresee no major changes in management until at least next spring, when the sale, valued at $13.7 billion, is completed. They also foresee few programming changes, noting that the novelas that are the backbone of primetime are under long-term contract with Mexico's Grupo Televisa.

“In the short term, I don’t expect any huge changes,” says Philip Remek, Guzman & Co. senior equity analyst. “Any changes that take place will be behind the scenes, operationally.”

Longer-term is a different story. One critical issue is a brewing squabble between Televisa and the new owners. Having lost out in the bidding for the TV network, Televisa is seeking to sell its minority interest in Univision and is threatening to become a competitor in the U.S. market.

Though it would still be bound to provide Univision with its novelas through an exclusive agreement that runs through 2017, the squabbling over the programming and the royalties Univision pays will create an air of uncertainty, at the least, and at the worst threaten a disruption in the supply of novelas.

Of more immediate concern to media buyers, the new owners might well seek to raise ad rates to offset the debt burden of the acquisition, says Luis J. Echarte, chairman of U.S.-based Hispanic broadcasting network Azteca America. “In terms of ad sales, some people think that to pay for this deal they might have to raise prices. And they’re a price-setter, so they’ll have the power to move prices up or down."

The issue is how much more Unvision can raise them, having already boosted them to levels comparable to the English-language networks.

Saban, a billionaire, built Saban Entertainment turning out cartoons based on Marvel Comic characters and later Mighty Morphin’ Power Rangers. In 2001, he sold the Fox Family cable network to Disney for $5.3 billion.

Azteca's Echarte doesn't see the new owners veering from the Univision formula that's been in place for so many years. "What works and what draws an audience are Mexican novelas and Mexican soccer, he says. "I wouldn’t expect anyone to mess with the formula.”

But with his background, Saban may beef up Univision's kid programming. "In terms of targeting different advertisers, based on his experience, they may look at some youth segments that haven’t been exploited in the past,” says Echarte. “Saban has been doing very strong marketing with children’s programming. So we might see something interesting there, maybe on the weekends."

Guzman & Co.'s Remek says Univision's new owners will seek to build up ad sales in pharmaceuticals and financial services.

But Remek thinks the new owners will have a struggle on their hands, having paid too much, at $36.25 per share, or about $5 over the real value. “A private equity company buys an undervalued, underperforming company, turns it around, sells it for a profit. But I think Univision isn’t so underdeveloped. There is considerable risk of overpaying.”

Teddy Hayes, vice president of media services at La Agencia de Orci, said it was too soon to make any prediction other than a continued demand for Spanish-language media. She did say, however, that the deal was welcome news for other Spanish-language networks.

“I think it’s a very good thing for Spanish media in general, based on its price tag,” she said. “It validates the importance of Spanish-language media in the U.S.”



Whitney Kvasager is a writer in Bellingham, Washington.




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