Spanish-language television is going through a period of dramatic change that will forever alter the way media buyers evaluate these networks, but it isn’t dampening the bright outlook for ad spending in the upfront.

Forecasters and media buyers agree that ad spending will grow about 10 percent over last year, to perhaps $1.4 billion, with Univision and its two other networks--TeleFutura and cable outlet Galavision--claiming the lion’s share.

NBC Universal’s ratings-charged Telemundo will steal some share away from Univision, while smaller networks will make inroads. Says Teddy Hayes, vice president of media services at La Agencia de Orci in Los Angeles: “We are expecting it to be pretty strong.”

Negotiations are expected to begin within days now that Univision had its upfront presentation on Wednesday. Telemundo had its presentation on Tuesday.

Most of the anticipated spending increase will come from first-time advertisers, perhaps a dozen or more, as it has in years past. Price increases will be less pronounced, also as they have been in the past. That's because just under half of the top 300 advertisers still aren’t using Spanish-language TV. As a result, inventory is somewhat easier to come by than it is on other networks, and that holds prices down.

Media buyers say average prices in primetime remain 20 percent to 30 percent lower than rates charged by English-language networks. Prices are nearing parity in other dayparts.

Forecasters say it's those new advertisers that will push spending increases above those for English-language TV. Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce, for instance, is projecting a 10.2 percent increase, to $1.4 billion, compared to 2.6 percent for English-language broadcast networks and 5.9 percent for cable.

Negotiations in this year’s Spanish-language upfront will be heated, however. The networks have been arguing for prices to be based on new Spanish-language ratings from Nielsen Media Research’s National People Meter rather than the Nielsen Hispanic Television Index, which has measured these networks separately from English-language broadcasters since 1992. Nielsen earlier this year began measuring the Spanish-language networks in its general-market survey. Buyers can now evaluate Univision, TeleFutura and Telemundo alongside networks like ABC and CBS.

“You now have the comparison of Univision to ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox, which has really opened the eyes of a lot of people,” says Rosa Serrano, senior vice president and group account director of the multicultural division at Initiative. “When you compare this audience to the total market and see they can be No. 1 in adults 18-34 and have a lot of strength in 18-49s, it’s really impressive.”

Orci’s Hayes agrees. “These ratings will give Hispanic programming a higher profile within agencies, which will probably bode well in the long term.”

The new ratings are also generally a bit higher than those measured by NHTI, which Nielsen plans to discontinue in September 2007.

If prices were based on this new data the networks would possibly see an incremental bump in revenue. Media buyers, who are generally eager to use new data, say it’s too early to incorporate these ratings into upfront negotiations.

In the end, Univision will likely claim 71 percent of upfront revenue, or $1 billion, slightly up when not including commercials booked last year for this summer’s World Cup soccer tournament. Telemundo is expected to see expenditures rise to $400 million, from $370 million last year.

But, unlike in the past, the Spanish-language upfront is no longer limited to these longtime rivals. The marketplace has expanded, with Azteca America now measured by Nielsen while several other networks like Fox Sports en Espanol are also growing and becoming bigger players in the upfront.

Based on adults 18-49, Univision this season through April 30 ranks No. 1 in primetime with an average 1.9 million viewers, down 7 percent from the same time last year, based on NHTI. Telemundo has 650,000 viewers, up 21 percent. TeleFutura has 316,000 viewers, down nearly 20 percent. And Azteca America has 142,000 viewers, up 84 percent.

Meanwhile, buyers do not expect Univision to suffer or benefit from its potential sale. The network has been exploring strategic options, including a sale, since February. Suitors are expected to bid $12 billion or more for the network.

“The investment that someone is going to make in Univision, if the sale goes through, is going to be so significant that they’re going to do very little to make changes that would impact the network in a negative way,” says Serrano. “The amount of investment warrants getting a return, so you have to maintain or grow Univision.”