The broadcast networks in the fast-approaching upfront are going to have a tough time matching last year’s $9 billion ad market. 

This upfront, set to begin May 15, is shaping up to be one of the most complicated in history, with buyers armed with new ratings that work against the networks and a growing confidence that they can walk away from the networks in favor of cable and the internet. 

Media buyers and forecasters predict negotiations will drag on in part because new Nielsen Media Research ratings will change the currency used to set prices and the networks’ ratings guarantees. 

Nielsen late last year began issuing three tiers of ratings, one for live viewing, the second for live plus same-day digital video recorder viewing, and live-plus-seven-day ratings. Upcoming negotiations will be marked by the networks counting as many viewers as they can, while buyers will hold off for a full year’s worth of data. 

“Until I know how many viewers fast-forward through commercials, I don’t know how to ascribe value to the live-plus ratings,” says one New York buyer. “If my commercials are not being seen I’m certainly not going to pay for them.” 

Nielsen will also begin measuring viewing on college campuses early next year, a period covered in the upfront, which spans the September-to-May broadcast season. The television ratings service also began measuring Spanish-language networks in its national sample, which may result in advertisers taking some money out of network. 

But the change that will most dramatically alter future upfronts, and possibly this one, is the new minute-by-minute ratings. Media buyers say the data is too new to make much impact this year, but initial findings suggest the networks are facing a horrific battle. Media researchers say commercial ratings are often 20 percent to 30 percent lower than program ratings. Buyers will soon begin asking for lower prices for programs with ratings that fall off significantly during commercials.

“What I think will happen longer term is that it will drive us to commercial ratings,” says one network negotiator. But other issues are also lingering, including the high price of oil and uncertainty about how that will affect advertising budgets.

Moreover, most buyers say the internet and other new media are no longer simply an add-on to a network buy, but rather a critical component in most upfront discussions. 

The network landscape has also radically changed. UPN and the WB are becoming the CW, while News Corp.’s My Network TV isn’t clearly a network or a syndicated buy. Together, these issues make predicting upfront spending more difficult than it has been in the past. 

It also explains why forecasts are all over the place. Noted forecaster Jack Myers, for instance, is projecting a flat to down upfront. Most network negotiators agree. But a few analysts are predicting the networks will do well, up a few percentage points. David Joyce, a media analyst with investment firm Miller Tabak, for instance, expects spending to be up 2.6 percent, to just under $9.3 billion. The one point that most buyers and analysts agree on is that prices will be up, but only in low-single-digit percentages. 

ABC: Expect another year of modest price increases
ABC surprised many industry observers last year by asking for modest price increases, about 4 percent. With ratings then accelerating with “Desperate Housewives,” the network could have been more aggressive. It wasn’t and the plan worked. Expenditures on the network were up, to $1.9 billion. This year, ABC will likely use the same strategy. 

CBS: With ratings down expect it to be flexible on pricing
CBS prides itself on having a solid primetime lineup with lots of hits. But the network has lost some of its luster. Ratings are down 5 percent so far this season and one-time mega-hits like “Survivor” have seen ratings slide. In this upfront, CBS isn’t likely to hold firm to high price increases and will probably sell as much inventory as it can. 

Fox: Stronger still and helped by the merger of UPN and the WB
Fox may be this year’s upfront success story. Ratings are strong for “American Idol” and other hits like “House.” That will help in negotiations. But media analysts also say that Fox – and MTV – will reap the rewards of the WB and UPN merger. Advertisers will likely shift some money to young-skewing networks like Fox. 

NBC: Facing a lot tougher sell, despite its successes this season
NBC is working hard to position itself as having momentum. But buyers aren’t buying it. NBC has had success with programs such as “My Name Is Earl” and “The Office,” but neither is strong enough to make up for NBC’s weaknesses. The network is stuck in a distant fourth place among 18-49s, down 8 percent for the season. 

The CW: The best of the WB and UPN but with much to prove
Media buyers are fairly upbeat about the CW’s prospects. One buyer describes it as a stronger version of the WB, solidly focused on reaching young women with the best of two networks’ programs. That being said, some advertisers will hold off until the CW proves itself. 

My Network TV: A limited player that will take away a small slice
With its programming limited to two novelas, an untested concept in English, My Network TV isn’t expected to make a splash in this upfront. It will generate perhaps $100 million.