What is the single most important thing for media buyers and planners to know about magazines right now?
 
Well, all of the research shows that magazines have a disproportionate influence on purchasing decisions. What media buyers have to get back to is looking at the uniqueness of not only the audiences but the editorial content of magazines rather than looking purely at numbers.
 
I also think they need to take a hard look at their definitions of ROI [return on investment]. There’s no common definition of what that is, and some of the research they’re using now certainly leaves a lot to be desired.

How will the recession affect magazines?
 
I think 2009 is going to be worse than 2008.

But you have to realize the first quarter and the first half, the bulk of ad decisions have already been made. That’s done in the second half of the previous year. And given the conditions in 2008, you can’t expect any terrific ad climate for the first half of 2009.
 
Perhaps if Obama’s stimulus package works there could be some return in the fourth quarter of 2009, but unfortunately I don’t think we’ll see anything meaningful until 2010, although I hope I’m wrong.
 

What are three trends to watch for in 2009 in magazines?
 
I think we’ll see more marginal magazines disappear. We’ll see more cuts in rate base--and unfortunately a lot of people looking for new jobs.
 
I also think that publishers are going to get more aggressive about their investment in the web and starting to deal with it as more than just an extension of the magazine by putting original content on it and beefing up their online sales and marketing efforts.
 

What will be the single biggest change in the industry over the next few years?
 
I think the magazine publishing companies that will be most successful will be the ones that become multimedia companies and become more of a marketing service partner with their advertisers. Magazines are already doing creative that was previously only done by agencies, and I think you’ll see more of that.
 
Hopefully the relationship between the media companies and advertising partners becomes closer.
 

How is new technology influencing magazines?
 
Well certainly it’s changing the focus of a lot of magazines; they can no longer be news vehicles. The web has replaced the news component of magazines. They can also no longer be database sources or have directory issues, which was the mainstay among many magazines. The web works much better for that sort of stuff than a print vehicle.
 
And, as I said, I think magazines will seek to become more efficient by getting rid of some of their marginal subscribers and offer a better audience for advertisers, a more committed audience.
 
If you think about how magazines acquire their circulation, the last subscriber they acquire is the most expensive and probably the least committed. So I think they’ll find a better point of diminishing returns, looking for more efficiency on the newsstands, for example.
 
There are all kinds of ways of getting subscriptions, and some of those subscribers are not necessarily the cream of the crop as far as what your magazine is all about. If advertisers stop looking at raw circulation numbers, the publishers can concentrate on getting the best readers for their advertisers.
 

Which magazine closures echoed loudest in 2008 and why?
 
Well, what surprised me is some of the closures came from larger magazine companies that seemed to have some viability. House & Garden was closed by Condé Nast, Hachette closed one or two magazines.
 
It’s also hard for a single-title publisher to compete because you can’t allocate costs across magazines. But on the other hand the metrics of some of the titles from larger publishers that closed could be profitable for smaller publishers if not for the corporate overhead.

Are there any categories where you see a shakeout occurring this year?
 
Well, we might see U.S News & World Report disappear; the newsweekly category is particularly in trouble because of the internet. Newsweek is downsizing and U.S. News is going to a monthly.
 
I think the celebrity and gossip magazines may have seen their heyday. The lad magazines may have seen their heyday.

What categories do you see doing the best this year?
 
I think the fashion and the beauty magazines, as well as the shelter magazines. And shelter I mean in a broad sense, also including epicurean titles, etc.
 
This is for two reasons. The internet can’t give you the graphic images people want to see in those magazines. And in the shelter arena, people get into cocooning during tough economic times, and that’s what those magazines are about.

I think the magazines about conspicuous consumption will be the ones that struggle. In spite of what some people say, I don’t think they’re immune.

Will we see many print launches this year, or do you see more of them happening online? Why?
 
I think we’ll continue to see magazines launched. I think in some ways it would be difficult for the entrepreneurs to get the funding, but what you have to remember is Fortune magazine was launched in the middle of the Depression.
 
A really good idea that finds an audience will always work. The United States is not going out of business.
 
But people will be more cautious and there will be more research. I don’t think in this climate Condé Nast would plan on investing the mega millions it did in Portfolio, you won’t see something like that.

The growth will be in niche market magazines where you can find a dedicated audience that spends a disproportionate amount of time and money on the products, services and activities that the magazine is all about.