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With the new year,
a cold snap is due


The networks are about to take a slide in ratings

Jan 3, 2008
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With the end of 2007 came not only a new year but what promises to be a new era for the broadcast networks.

After two months of coasting through the writers’ strike with a stockpile of highly rated dramas and comedies filmed well in advance, the networks enter January with only a few remaining new episodes of hits like “Grey’s Anatomy” and “CSI.”

The networks are about to see their collective ratings slip, despite the upcoming premieres of a few strong reality shows, a handful of returning hits, and the end of what have been an exciting pro and college football seasons. Those may well prevent massive ratings losses, but they can't make up for the lack of scripted programming.

Season to date, the Big Four broadcasters’ combined adults 18-49 average rating has fallen 5 percent, from 14.2 to 13.5. Only Fox has seen improvements over last year, rising 10 percent over 2006 to a fourth-place 3.2 average.

Those averages include only live and same-day digital video recorder viewership, and the networks credit DVRs for much of the year-to-year erosion. Indeed, this year Nielsen doubled its DVR sample compared with the 2006-’07 season, and seven-day playback averages are more encouraging.

But all that said, it's not been a strong season, and things are about to get worse.

The networks simply don’t have much left in terms of original scripted episodes.

ABC airs its final fresh “Desperate Housewives” this Sunday, using it as a lead-in to launch the new “Sex and the City” wannabe drama “Cashmere Mafia.” The network also has its final filmed “Grey’s Anatomy” airing a week from tonight. But after that the network will be without fresh originals of its top two dramas.

“Grey’s” and “Housewives” repeats draw dismally low ratings, losing up to two-thirds of the originals’ audience. So do those of "Pushing Daisies" and "Private Practice," two solid new dramas that are also out of episodes.

CBS has only two original “CSIs” left and none of “Two and a Half Men,” broadcast’s top sitcom. Its one consolation is that its dramas tend to repeat better than the other networks.

NBC ran out of original episodes of “Heroes” and “The Office,” its top-rated drama and sitcom, before the new year. NBC and CBS do have NFL postseason games the next four weeks, but only about half of those will air in primetime.

Network executives have said they believe the flush of new reality shows and cable retreads they're rolling out will stem much of the decline, but few media buyers would agree. Their sense is that we'll soon begin to see a lot more weeks like the one before Christmas, when only a handful of originals aired and just one broadcaster, NBC, managed a weekly average rating higher than 2.5.

Only Fox’s ratings seem likely to remain steady or even increase in the coming weeks. It has a new season of “American Idol” and new dramas “Canterbury’s Law” and “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.” In addition, its animated comedies have stockpiled a number of unaired episodes, and top-rated drama “House” also has a few new episodes.

PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 30

Network

Households

People 2+

Adults 18-49

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

CBS

5.3

5990

10

3.0

8560

8

2.3

2980

7

NBC

5.1

5740

9

2.9

8210

8

2.7

3570

8

FOX

3.6

4070

7

2.1

6060

6

2.2

2870

7

ABC

3.3

3750

6

1.8

5210

5

1.6

2040

5

UNI

1.5

1700

3

1.1

3190

3

1.4

1790

4

CW

1.1

1210

2

0.6

1660

2

0.6

740

2

MNT

0.7

820

1

0.4

1130

1

0.4

470

1

TEL

0.5

540

1

0.3

930

1

0.4

520

1

ION

0.4

460

1

0.2

610

1

0.1

150

0

TF

0.3

340

1

0.2

660

1

0.3

430

1

AZA

0.1

80

0

0.0

130

0

0.1

80

0

* Each rating point is equivalent to 1. 114 million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research 

 

SEASON-TO-DATE PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 30

Network

Households

People 2+

Adults 18-49

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

Rtg%

(000)

Shr

CBS

7.4

8310

12

4.1

11620

10

3.3

4360

9

ABC

6.8

7620

11

3.6

10410

9

3.4

4480

9

NBC

5.5

6210

9

3.0

8710

8

3.3

4270

9

FOX

5.2

5900

8

3.0

8450

7

3.1

4110

8

UNI

1.8

2060

3

1.2

3520

3

1.5

1970

4

CW

1.8

2040

3

1.0

2810

2

1.1

1500

3

MNT

0.7

790

1

0.4

1030

1

0.4

500

1

TEL

0.5

610

1

0.3

980

1

0.4

540

1

ION

0.4

440

1

0.2

570

1

0.1

160

0

TF

0.4

400

1

0.2

670

1

0.3

420

1

AZA

0.1

100

0

0.1

150

0

0.1

100

0

* Each rating point is equivalent to 1. 114 million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research 

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 30

#

PROGRAMS

Net

HOUSEHOLDS

PERSONS 2+

Rtg%

Shr

(000)

#

Rtg%

(000)

1

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

9.7

16

10994

1

5.5

15802

2

NFL SAT NIGHT SPECIAL(S)

CBS

8.7

15

9864

1

5.5

15679

3

60 MINUTES

CBS

7.7

13

8645

4

4.3

12393

3

NBC NFL SPECIAL 12/29(S)

NBC

7.7

13

8674

3

4.6

13228

5

CSI

CBS

7.0

12

7852

5

3.7

10686

6

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

6.9

12

7821

5

3.7

10543

7

SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK

NBC

6.3

11

7154

7

3.6

10381

8

CSI: NY THURSDAY 8PM SP(S)

CBS

6.0

10

6762

10

3.3

9492

9

AMAZING RACE 12

CBS

5.9

9

6648

8

3.4

9685

9

CRIMINAL MINDS - 8PM SPC(S)

CBS

5.9

10

6650

11

3.1

8970

9

LAW & ORDER:SVU10P12/26(S)

NBC

5.9

11

6666

13

3.0

8692

12

DEAL OR NO DEAL 12/25(S)

NBC

5.8

12

6537

8

3.4

9778

13

OT, THE

FOX

5.7

10

6376

11

3.1

8790

14

LAW AND ORDER:SVU 9P12/26(S)

NBC

5.1

9

5740

18

2.6

7534

15

COLD CASE

CBS

5.0

8

5654

18

2.6

7547

16

LAW AND ORDER:SVU 12/25(S)

NBC

4.9

10

5560

15

2.7

7595

17

FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3

NBC

4.8

8

5454

15

2.7

7715

18

NBC NFL SP PRE-KICK 12/29(S)

NBC

4.7

9

5336

14

2.8

7983

19

ABC SUN MOVIE OF WK-12/30(S)

ABC

4.6

8

5211

15

2.7

7651

19

SHARK

CBS

4.6

8

5136

23

2.4

6858

21

NUMB3RS

CBS

4.5

8

5038

23

2.4

6735

22

NCIS - SPECIAL(S)

CBS

4.4

9

5000

20

2.5

7157

23

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

4.3

7

4885

31

2.1

6081

23

MOST OUTRAG MOMNTS8P12/26(S)

NBC

4.3

7

4833

23

2.4

6837

23

WOMEN'S MURDER CLUB

ABC

4.3

8

4850

27

2.3

6605

Source: Nielsen Media Research

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Adults 18-49
Week Ending December 30

Rank

Program

Net

Rtg%

(000)

1

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

5.9

7672

2

NFL SAT NIGHT SPECIAL(S)

CBS

5.3

6925

3

NBC NFL SPECIAL 12/29(S)

NBC

4.7

6112

4

SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK

NBC

3.7

4905

5

OT, THE

FOX

3.5

4534

6

FAMILY GUY

FOX

3.2

4143

6

SIMPSONS

FOX

3.2

4216

8

AMAZING RACE 12

CBS

2.9

3775

9

AMERICAN DAD

FOX

2.8

3651

9

FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3

NBC

2.8

3659

11

60 MINUTES

CBS

2.6

3415

11

CSI

CBS

2.6

3373

11

DEAL OR NO DEAL 12/25(S)

NBC

2.6

3392

11

KING OF THE HILL

FOX

2.6

3377

11

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

2.6

3423

16

HOUSE SP-XMAS 9P(S)

FOX

2.5

3220

17

FOX MOVIE SP-12/26 8P(S)

FOX

2.4

3164

17

LAW & ORDER:SVU10P12/26(S)

NBC

2.4

3210

17

NBC NFL SP PRE-KICK 12/29(S)

NBC

2.4

3187

20

CSI: NY THURSDAY 8PM SP(S)

CBS

2.1

2808

20

FOX MOVIE SP-12/27 8P(S)

FOX

2.1

2775

20

LAW AND ORDER:SVU 12/25(S)

NBC

2.1

2691

23

ABC SUN MOVIE OF WK-12/30(S)

ABC

2.0

2624

23

AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK

FOX

2.0

2560

23

GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM

ABC

2.0

2611

Source: Nielsen Media Research

  

SPANISH-LANGUAGE TELEVISION (WEEKLY COLLAPSED)
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 23

#

PROGRAMS

Net

NHTI

P2+ (000)

1

PASION M-F

UNI

16.8

3437

2

AMAR SIN LIMITES M-F

UNI

15.9

3407

3

YO AMO JUAN QUERENDON M-F

UNI

15.1

3233

4

BAILANDO CAMP INTER SUN

UNI

14.4

3147

4

DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA WE

UNI

14.4

2666

6

CRISTINA MON

UNI

14.3

2827

6

NAVIDAD P. LUCHE 12/21(S)-12/21/2007

UNI

14.3

3259

8

SABADO GIGANTE SAT

UNI

13.2

2562

9

VER PARA CREER-TUE

UNI

13.1

2359

10

AQUI Y AHORA THU

UNI

12.5

2310

11

HORA PICO SUN

UNI

8.8

1938

11

PARODIA SAT

UNI

8.8

1711

13

FAMILIA DE DIEZ SAT

UNI

8.6

1676

14

VICTORIA M-F

TEL

6.7

1311

15

MADRE LUNA M-F

TEL

5.5

982

16

PECADOS AJENOS M-F

TEL

4.4

895

17

12 CORAZONES M-F

TEL

4.2

809

18

CINE MILLONARIO

TEL

3.7

1065

19

CINE DE IMPACTO

TEL

3.6

768

20

CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN

TF

3.5

841

21

CINE DE LAS ESTRELLAS M-THU

TF

3.4

755

22

SOLO BOXEO TECATE FRI

TF

3.1

577

22

CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN 2

TF

3.1

789

24

QUE DICE LA GENTE M-F

TF

2.9

548

25

CINE EN CASA

TEL

2.7

670

25

ATREVETE A SONAR-LR 12/22(S)-12/22/2007

TEL

2.7

398

* Nielsen Hispanic Television Index; ratings based on 11.63 million Hispanic TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

HISPANIC ENGLISH-LANGUAGE VIEWING
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 23

#

PROGRAMS

Net

NHTI

P2+(000)

1

FRIDAY NIGHT SMACKDOWN

CW

5.0

1003

2

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

4.5

744

3

CBS NFL NATL POST GUN

CBS

4.4

795

4

COPS 2

FOX

4.0

800

4

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

4.0

683

6

AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK

FOX

3.8

734

7

BIGGEST LOSER 4

NBC

3.7

647

8

CANE

CBS

3.5

629

8

WONDERFUL WRLD DISNEY SPL(S)-12/23/2007

ABC

3.5

695

8

TWO AND A HALF MEN 930 SP(S)-12/17/2007

CBS

3.5

529

* Nielsen Hispanic Television Index; ratings based on 11.63 million Hispanic TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

AFRICAN AMERICAN AUDIENCE ESTIMATES
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 23

#

PROGRAMS

Net

Rtg

P2+(000)

1

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

11.7

2188

2

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

10.4

1809

3

CLASH OF CHOIRS 12/20

NBC

9.3

1695

4

CLASH OF CHOIRS 12/17

NBC

9.2

1746

5

CSI: NY

CBS

8.7

1344

5

CLASH OF CHOIRS 12/19

NBC

8.7

1599

7

60 MINUTES

CBS

8.6

1561

8

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

8.3

1443

9

CLASH OF CHOIRS 12/18

NBC

7.9

1523

9

SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK

NBC

7.9

1369

* Ratings based on 13.45 million African American TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research

 

TOP 30 NETWORK SPORTS PROGRAMS
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 9

#

PROGRAMS

Net

Episode

Households

Persons 2+

US Rtg%

Shr

(000)

(000)

1

CBS NFL NATIONAL

CBS

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

18.4

32

20804

30257

2

CBS NFL NATL POST GUN

CBS

CLEVELAND AT NY JETS/OAK AT GB

13.2

22

14858

21445

3

FOX NFL SUNDAY-SINGLE

FOX

VARIOUS TEAMS AND TIMES

12.9

27

14595

20315

4

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE

8.1

13

9107

12734

5

CBS NFL REGIONAL