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a cold snap is due The networks are about to take a slide in ratings Jan 3, 2008
After two months of coasting through the writers’ strike with a stockpile of highly rated dramas and comedies filmed well in advance, the networks enter January with only a few remaining new episodes of hits like “Grey’s Anatomy” and “CSI.” The networks are about to see their collective ratings slip, despite the upcoming premieres of a few strong reality shows, a handful of returning hits, and the end of what have been an exciting pro and college football seasons. Those may well prevent massive ratings losses, but they can't make up for the lack of scripted programming. Season to date, the Big Four broadcasters’ combined adults 18-49 average rating has fallen 5 percent, from 14.2 to 13.5. Only Fox has seen improvements over last year, rising 10 percent over 2006 to a fourth-place 3.2 average. Those averages include only live and same-day digital video recorder viewership, and the networks credit DVRs for much of the year-to-year erosion. Indeed, this year Nielsen doubled its DVR sample compared with the 2006-’07 season, and seven-day playback averages are more encouraging. But all that said, it's not been a strong season, and things are about to get worse. ABC airs its final fresh “Desperate Housewives” this Sunday, using it as a lead-in to launch the new “Sex and the City” wannabe drama “Cashmere Mafia.” The network also has its final filmed “Grey’s Anatomy” airing a week from tonight. But after that the network will be without fresh originals of its top two dramas. “Grey’s” and “Housewives” repeats draw dismally low ratings, losing up to two-thirds of the originals’ audience. So do those of "Pushing Daisies" and "Private Practice," two solid new dramas that are also out of episodes. CBS has only two original “CSIs” left and none of “Two and a Half Men,” broadcast’s top sitcom. Its one consolation is that its dramas tend to repeat better than the other networks. NBC ran out of original episodes of “Heroes” and “The Office,” its top-rated drama and sitcom, before the new year. NBC and CBS do have NFL postseason games the next four weeks, but only about half of those will air in primetime. Network executives have said they believe the flush of new reality shows and cable retreads they're rolling out will stem much of the decline, but few media buyers would agree. Their sense is that we'll soon begin to see a lot more weeks like the one before Christmas, when only a handful of originals aired and just one broadcaster, NBC, managed a weekly average rating higher than 2.5. Only Fox’s ratings seem likely to remain steady or even increase in the coming weeks. It has a new season of “American Idol” and new dramas “Canterbury’s Law” and “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.” In addition, its animated comedies have stockpiled a number of unaired episodes, and top-rated drama “House” also has a few new episodes.
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