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Who stands to gain from NBC's 'Leno'
By Diego Vasquez
Oct 15, 2009 - 1:05:33 AM
Perhaps ABC owes NBC a thank you note: The low ratings for ABC's 10 p.m. dramas "The Forgotten" and "Eastwick" would have been even lower were it not for "The Jay Leno Show." A month into the new NBC talk show's run, it's clear that ABC and CBS have both benefited from the decreased competition in the 10 p.m. weeknight timeslot, where all three aired scripted dramas on most nights last year. With "Leno's" viewership down roughly 19 percent compared to last year's timeslot occupants, CBS and ABC are both getting some of the viewers who have abandoned NBC. "Leno" is doing the best on Tuesday nights, when lead-in "The Biggest Loser" delivers a, excuse the pun, hefty audience. It fares worst on Thursdays, where ABC and CBS both have dramas with sizeable followings. Still, whether or not the "Leno" effect boosts its rivals for the full year remains to be seen, as media people expect the show's ratings to rise and fall based on the programming it's facing and its lead-ins. Marci L. Ryvicker, media analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, talks to Media Life about NBC's expectations for the show, how ABC and CBS are being helped, and whether NBC's affiliates are being hurt by the ratings drop.
Do you think the mid-1.0 18-49 rating NBC has set for "The Jay Leno Show" is realistic?
I think it can be.
I think that’s a realistic expectation. I think NBC was not expecting this to be a big ratings hit. Their goal was to work on the bottom line, and this is probably the best way to do it. They were expecting a dropoff in ratings and also in expenses.
When they were negotiating in the upfront their rates were significantly lower than last year, specifically in the 10 p.m. timeslot.
According to the goals NBC has laid out for "The Jay Leno Show," has the show been a success thus far?
I think it’s going as expected. That’s probably the best way to characterize it. It would be really successful if it beat ratings expectations.
It’s still a bit early to determine if this is the right move. It’s going to depend on how the shows it’s competing against are and who Leno has on.
Do you think the "Leno" show will impact the rest of the schedule's ratings at all, or is it its own entity in terms of ratings?
I don’t think so because it’s not a lead-in. If you like watching some of NBC’s other shows you can just drop off at 10 p.m. and switch. It’d be very different if Leno was on at 8.
Has "Leno" diluted NBC's brand as a broadcast network in the eyes of advertisers?
I don’t think so.
I don’t think NBC had a great reputation to begin with. It would be very different if someone like CBS did this. It’s a bit of an experiment for advertisers, but it’s not like a completely new show—you know what you’re getting.
Because it is NBC and it was so well-known that this was what they were going to do, I don’t think it hurt NBC’s brand, especially since they were trailing everyone to begin with.
You say that CBS seems to be benefiting from the "Leno" decision. Why?
The first week we saw a significant improvement in CBS’s ratings. When we first did this we upgraded CBS.
Let’s say NBC loses a third of its audience. Then let’s assume 50 percent goes to cable, and 50 percent goes to broadcast. Who broadcasts at 10 p.m.? It’s CBS and ABC.
Then, show by show, what did NBC have on last year versus what CBS and ABC have on this year? It looks like ABC might get a bigger portion of what NBC lost, but the first week it looked like CBS was getting the greater share.
Also, with first-run shows broadcast gets more like 75 percent and cable 25 percent.
The second week ABC looked better than CBS, so we can’t make the final determination on who will benefit. They both may, but we don’t know who will benefit more.
It also depends on what cable has on during this time period.
ABC's first- and second-year dramas have had middling ratings thus far at 10 p.m. Is the network seeing any benefits from facing Leno?
I think so. It’s too early to figure out how to quantify it, but I’d say they should be benefiting from Leno.
Do you think other viewers who would have been watching NBC's scripted dramas are moving to cable, or are some of them just turning off the TV?
You hear that there are some people looking at TV over the internet. I cover cable and satellite, and that’s not a huge issue. At this point I think the bigger issue is what’s getting DVR-ed and sometimes that doesn’t show up in the live-plus-same-day ratings.
That said, I feel like the American consumer has so much going on right now—you’d think with the economy that TV consumption would be higher as people try to save money.
But I think you’re seeing an increase of people going online and spending time on the internet, maybe with TV on in the background. In my family, our TV consumption has gone down significantly. I’m only one person, but among the people I have contact with, TV is not a big priority in this recession. And part of it is it’s very depressing.
NBC has said over and over that this is a 52-week approach. Do you expect to see "Leno's" ratings rise, fall or flatten out over the coming months, as the other networks air reruns and swap in new shows?
Yes. Absolutely.
The positive press for those weeks should be good for NBC. Part of it is the expectation was so low that if ratings were worse than had been expected, it’d have been a huge blow. But because they’re in line with low expectations, it will end up helping NBC during those weeks.
How is Leno affecting local affiliate news ratings so far?
From what I’ve heard it’s not been negative. We’re waiting to see a turn, but the first week he had fabulous ratings. And the second and third he hasn’t, but among the affiliates I’ve spoken to, it has not yet hurt them.
A lot of it is people are loyal to the news they’re used to watching, and it’s not hard to change the channel. I think having strong news programming is probably the most important thing, because that’s one of the things that isn’t time shifted, so I’m not convinced the 10 p.m. timeslot is that important (in terms of a lead-in for local news) anymore.
What nights are seeing the biggest losses from "Leno" compared to last year and why?
My data shows the biggest loss from Leno is Thursdays. Part of it is because the strongest programming on the other networks tends to be that night because it’s typically the most important night of the week for advertisers.
When I look at both the first two weeks when these shows ran against other shows, Thursday had the lowest amount of viewers, followed by Friday, then Monday, then Wednesday, then Tuesday. So Tuesday has been the best day.
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