Where the real
drama is with the Oscars
Where you'd expect: Will 'Avatar' get best picture?
By Diego Vasquez
Mar 4, 2010
"Avatar" is already the highest-grossing film in U.S. history, with a box office haul of $708 million and counting. But can it follow in former box office champ "Titanic's" footsteps and also claim the best picture Oscar? That's the big question heading into Sunday's Academy Awards, which air at 8 p.m. on ABC. "Avatar" and war drama "The Hurt Locker" are tied with nine nominations apiece, and either could conceivably take the night's top prize. "Avatar" has been praised for its technical innovations and amazing effects, but the story and writing are nothing special. "Hurt" has an incredible story but not nearly as much popular appeal. Plus, it's been embroiled in a bit of a scandal. Co-producer Nicolas Chartier has been banned from the ceremony after an email leaked out that he sent to friends, urging them to ask any Academy members they knew to support "Locker" over "that $500 million film" ("Avatar," of course). The other tight race that bears watching on Sunday is best actress, where Meryl Streep and first-time nominee Sandra Bullock have split all the major pre-Oscars awards. To get the scoop on what will happen at Sunday's ceremony, Media Life spoke to Dave Karger, senior writer at Entertainment Weekly and author of its OscarWatch blog.
What is looking like the tightest category?
The big one, Best Picture.
Although “The Hurt Locker” has swept most of the big pre-Oscar awards, I'm still hearing of a groundswell of support for “Avatar,” particularly from West Coast voters.
Which category could have the most surprising outcome?
Best actress, if Meryl Streep can pull out a victory over Sandra Bullock. It would be the first win for Streep in 28 years and would break her cycle of 12 consecutive losses.
Is there any category(ies) where one nominee looks like a lock?
All the other acting categories. Jeff Bridges, Christoph Waltz, and Mo'Nique are the definition of sure things.
How do this year's acting races compare to past years -- are they more or less open?
Definitely less open. Last year there was real suspense in three of the acting races, especially Best Actor, with Sean Penn up against Mickey Rourke.
Will the recent semi-scandal over the "Hurt Locker" producer's email hurt the film's chances, or is this an example of too much being made out of something (campaigning, bad-mouthing the competition) that everyone does?
Fortunately for that producer, many voters had already turned in their ballots when the story broke. There's always some element of shadiness to the Oscar campaign season; it's just rare to have it reach the public like this.
This year for the first time 10 films have been nominated for best picture, with the idea of getting more popular films in the running and drawing a larger TV audience for the awards. Do you think they succeeded in broadening the base of nominees? Which films benefitted the most from this new system?
In some respect it did work, since “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” and “Up” wouldn't have been nominated without the extra slots. But even if there had only been five nominees, “Avatar” and “Inglourious Basterds” -- both big hits -- would have been in there anyway, so I don't think it was necessary.
Do you think that the TV audience will be up this year because of "Avatar," "The Blind Side" and other more popular films being nominated?
Yes, which is why I think 10 Best Picture nominees are here to stay. Now let's see if they can finish the show before midnight.
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