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Where ABC stands so far this season
By Diego Vasquez
Nov 18, 2009 - 1:05:27 AM
Buzz-wise, ABC is having a pretty good season. New shows like "V," "Modern Family," "Cougar Town" and "FlashForward" have received good reviews and drew strong numbers for their premieres. But a sharp decline in ratings for veteran shows like "Desperate Housewives" and "Dancing with the Stars" has hurt the network this season. ABC is down 12 percent among adults 18-49 this fall compared to last, from a 3.4 rating to a 3.0, according to Nielsen. It's in third place season to date behind CBS, at 3.2, and Fox, at 3.7, and it's only 0.3 ahead of NBC, though the latter's ratings will fall in January, once "Sunday Night Football" wraps up. With Fox having seemingly secured the season with "American Idol" returning in January, ABC likely will be fighting for second place with CBS once spring comes. Brian Hughes, vice president and manager of audience analysis at Magna Global, talks to Media Life about why ABC's new shows have done well, why "Housewives" and "Stars" are off, and whether this is the last season for "Ugly Betty."
On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being not at all improved and 10 being the most of any network, how much has ABC improved compared to last year?
It depends on what you mean by “improve.”
Ratings-wise, ABC is down relative to last year at this time, but that has been fueled mainly by declines on its returning shows. I’d say creatively, the network is ahead of where it was last year—“Modern Family,” “Cougar Town” and “FlashForward” have earned critical accolades and can be considered moderate hits.
What are the network's biggest strengths this fall?
I’d say the new series mentioned above, and attracting a bit more of a male audience in some time periods. I’m not sure if that was a goal of theirs or not, since they have aggressively targeted women in the past.
What are its biggest weaknesses, and how would you like to see them addressed?
As I mentioned before, returning series declines have hurt ABC’s overall averages the most. Once that erosion has started for a seasoned show, it’s very difficult to reverse it, though not out of the question.
“The Bachelor” has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence over the past couple of seasons, but it seems to be a lot harder for scripted programs to bounce back.
How have its new shows performed compared to past seasons?
So far this season, the average adults 18-49 rating for ABC’s new series is about 14 percent ahead of where it was last year at this time. Considering that the network has twice as many new shows on the schedule this season, that’s certainly a positive.
Obviously a lot of shows are declining compared to previous years, but several of ABC's shows seem to be getting hit hard, including "Dancing with the Stars" and "Desperate Housewives." Is there any way for the network to combat that decline, or is it simply a fact of life for aging shows?
I think “Housewives’” decline is more related to age than anything else, as its competition on Sundays hasn’t changed much. There could be an element of wear-out on “Dancing with the Stars” as well, since the network has run two cycles each season for the past three years.
Additionally, Fox is airing “So You Think You Can Dance” in the fall for the first time, and viewers may simply be “danced out.”
"Ugly Betty" has seen its ratings plummet on Friday night, as expected. Do you think moving it there was a good strategic change, or would you like to have seen the show go somewhere else? Why?
Let’s be honest: moving a scripted drama to Friday night usually means that its days are numbered. The best ABC could have hoped for in this situation was to improve the time period, but that has not been the case.
However, there have been rumblings in the press that “Ugly Betty” could change time periods again. That could help its numbers somewhat, but I’ll be surprised if this isn’t its last season.
Do you think ABC can challenge CBS for second place in 18-49s this year behind Fox, or will the network stay in third?
Right now, there is such a small margin separating those three networks among adults 18-49 that anything is possible. It will really depend on how well “American Idol” holds up for Fox, and if ABC can shore up its schedule in midseason.
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