At this point four years ago, John Kerry had already been Swift Boated and MoveOn was branding President Bush a Vietnam War dodger, two of the bigger stories to emerge from the 2004 campaign cycle. But to this point in the 2008 campaign, the so-called 527s, tax-exempt groups that throw their weight behind certain candidates or issues during a campaign, have been relatively quiet. Instead, it’s been the campaigns themselves doing most of the advertising, according to Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which has been tracking this election’s ads closely. The 527s’ relative inactivity is one of the big differences between this campaign and the last. Others include the lack of Republican money being in spent in Florida, where Democratic nominee Barack Obama has bought liberally, and the tailoring of ads to specific regions of the country. Too, the campaigns have embraced some new tactics. Obama and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain both made Olympic ad buys, and Obama has reserved time on Ion. Goldstein, a professor in the department of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, talks to Media Life about 2004, 527s and the candidates’ media strategies.
 
What have been the biggest differences, in terms of advertising, that you've seen so far in 2008 compared with 2004?
 
A few things. The first point, the biggest thing, is the fundamental similarities [between this campaign and 2004] in that most of the advertising is in the Midwest battleground states.

We have seen a slight expansion of the map. Obama is advertising in places like Montana, Alaska, North Carolina and Georgia. But we’ll see how serious he is when we see the first ad buys in September.
 
The first difference is we’re seeing one-sided advertising in Florida. Obama is up massively and McCain has not been.
 
The second difference is, we’re seeing ads a bit more tailored to particular markets and states this time around, mostly on the Democratic side.
 
And a third difference is the dog is not barking—527s and outside players. The campaign advertising has generally been carried by the campaigns so far.

We saw both Barack Obama and John McCain advertise during the Olympics, the first time a candidate has done so on national television in years. Do you expect to see more of this going forward?
 
I would not expect to see more national ad buys by the McCain campaign. And depending on how much money Obama has, we may see more but not major or significant money on national buys.
 

Obama has also bought infomercial time on Ion. What other new ideas have emerged this year in terms of ad buys?
 
There’s more stuff being pushed out on the internet, but that ultimately is preaching to the converted. When you add it all up, the great, great, huge majority of ad dollars will be spot buys on local TV networks.

Will it be 80 or 85 percent? I don’t know, but it will be a huge majority.

How much money do you expect will be spent on the presidential race when it's all over? Will it be above or below expectations?
 
Well, it sort of depends on what the expectations are. It very much depends on how successful Obama is raising money. But I guess that I’d say there’s not yet been a year when advertising has come in below what we expected.

People have ratcheted up predictions this year, and as I mentioned I still think we’ll see a great majority of dollars on local TV.

Has the economy had any impact on spending for this election, for the candidates, the parties or the 527s?
 
The economy’s having a great impact on the campaigns, but I think it will have little impact on campaign spending. It just sort of seems that political contributions are immune to economic conditions.

Where do you expect the major battleground states will be coming out of the conventions?
 
I think it’s the same we see now. Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. I would pay very close attention to what the ad buys are after the Republican National Convention. We’ll all be able to know what the battleground states are by the ad buys. Where they’re spending will tell us something, but I think maybe up to 50 percent of the spending will be in the big five Midwest battleground states.

You said that McCain hasn’t spent much in Florida at all, why do you think that’s the case?
 
I think it’s an economic decision on McCain’s part. They’re not yet ready to commit and they will reassess. If they’re not in Florida in mid-September, we’ll know they’re pretty confident. But if they are then we know it will probably be more of a dogfight.
 

How do the McCain and Obama media strategies differ?
 
Fundamentally what we’ve seen and will see is many more McCain negative ads and many more Obama positive ads.

The election is about Barack Obama on both sides, the question is whether he can reach a certain credibility threshold with voters.

There will be some McCain positive ads and some Obama negative ads, but when it’s all said and done I think we’ll see a lot more McCain negative ads and Obama positive ads.