Each year media people try to predict what the fall hits will be, but this year may be harder than any season in recent memory. There are only half the number of new shows, 13, premiering as last year because of the writers’ strike, which hampered pilot production last spring. And many of the shows that debuted last year, like NBC’s “Chuck” and ABC’s “Dirty Sexy Money,” remain big question marks because their first years were interrupted by the strike, which allowed them only half-season runs. That makes it a difficult season to forecast, according to a new report from TargetCast tcm, a New York agency. The report says there are no surefire hits this fall, though CBS’s drama “Eleventh Hour” and comedies “Worst Week” and “Gary Unmarried” have promise. The schedule is stacked with imports like ABC’s “Life on Mars” or remakes like NBC’s “Knight Rider,” programs that have already proven themselves overseas or in earlier incarnations and some of which were sent to series without so much as a pilot. Gary Carr, senior vice president and director of national broadcast for TargetCast, talks to Media Life about why this season is different, why CBS’s shows look the most promising, and why dramas rule the schedule.

Why will this broadcast season lack any clear new breakout hits?
 
First of all, there are hardly any new shows because the writers’ strike slowed development to a crawl. And also networks are producing fewer and fewer pilots. Many of them are giving midseason shows from last season another chance this year.
 
We didn’t see much of anything at the upfront. CBS was the only one that seemed to have any real development, and they do look pretty good. As I get older I’m starting to like CBS shows more.
 
As for ABC, I can’t really tell you what they have beyond “Life on Mars” and that game show “Opportunity Knocks.”

And you never know what to expect with game shows. If someone tells you they know they’re lying.
 
At Fox there’s all this buzz about “Fringe,” which I still haven’t seen yet. Until I see it I won’t know.
 
The funny thing is that it's the first year in a long time where it’s hard to say this show’s going to be a hit and this show’s going to be a miss.
 

There are fewer new shows than last year, and many of them seem to be dramas. Why the strong skew in that direction?
 
Drama engages people. They get involved with the characters, and the ratings are there. A lot of the top shows are dramas, and that will go on for a while until something changes it.

But everything in this business is cyclical.

I remember when comedies were considered dead in the water, but then “The Cosby Show” came along and comedies were golden again.

Yet it’s tough to make people laugh. The best comedies on TV right now are CBS’s Monday night comedies.
 
Look at the top shows in syndication. Many are off-network sitcoms. That’s where all the funny shows went.

Which network has the most promising group of shows and why?
 
I think CBS, but that’s me. 

Throughout the writers' strike CBS was able to develop shows. At the upfront they had actual pilots, while others had snippets.
 

Which network has the least promising shows?
 
It’s hard to say. Again, with ABC the only thing they have coming up in fourth quarter are “Life on Mars” and “Opportunity Knocks.” 

But then again, they never really got to show what they had last year, so those shows could help.
 

NBC seems to have a bit of a hodgepodge with their new programs. Which look the most promising, and do you think the strategy of partnering with advertisers in the creative development process will pay off?
 
I have to say that “Kath & Kim” could be sort of cute. As far as “My Own Worst Enemy,” there have been shows like that before. NBC’s been putting on a lot of shows that to me look good but don’t end up doing that well.
 
I think partnering with advertisers is good for NBC.  It gives them an opportunity to do branded entertainment. And it will help create a good attitude toward NBC among advertisers.

I just hope it doesn’t go too far so that most shows begin to look like commercials.

Eventually NBC's ratings will turn. All it takes is one or two breakout shows. All the networks are within a point of each other, although ratings are so low that a point is a large percentage.
 

Last year's group of shows were hindered by the writers' strike, and none of them really took off. Do you foresee any in particular breaking out this year?
 
I thought “Pushing Daisies” was cute. “Samantha Who?” showed some promise when it was first on. As for “Private Practice,” I don’t think that really got a good chance last year. So those shows certainly have promise.
 
But it’s so hard to predict a hit anymore. Viewers are watching so many different things that very few shows become instant hits, whatever the definition of a hit is these days.
 

There were a lot of imports and updates on the schedule this year. Is that just an effect of the writers' strike, or do you see this as a direction the networks will follow in the future?
 
Copying old shows has been going on for a while. Show me on TV how many shows are truly original. 
 
As far as imports, a lot of the best shows we’ve had are imports. “American Idol” is an import. “All In the Family” was an import. “The Office” is an import. The idea of “Ugly Betty” was imported.

The networks are smart to go where they have to go to find something that works.
 
One interesting thing not many people are talking about will be how CW gave away its Sunday night (to an outside company that will produce the evening's shows). Nobody’s seen anything yet, but that could have some promise.