Television
Upfront outlook: Fewer sked changes
By Toni Fitzgerald
May 12, 2008 - 1:20:07 AM

The broadcast networks kick off their upfront presentations this week, but don’t expect to see the sort of radical schedule shakeups that have defined the past few years.

Instead, media buyers and planners expect minimal changes as the Big Five continue to recover from the effects of the writers’ strike.

There will be fewer new shows because the strike disrupted the spring development season, and more bubble shows returning because the networks are wary of taking risks in a year when broadcast viewership plunged.

Though there may be some minor schedule changes to plug problem areas, such as CBS’s long-ailing Tuesday 10 p.m. timeslot, there won’t be any major overhauls such as ABC moving “Grey’s Anatomy” to Thursday nights two years ago.

“I’m sure we’re going to see (and already have seen) renewals of shows whose ratings, in the past, would have gotten them canceled,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Santa Monica, Calif., agency RPA.  “I think a secondary effect of that will be to make the networks more cautious about tinkering with established series scheduling unless they see a specific problem that scheduling might be able to ameliorate.

“I would also add in the extraordinary amount of schedule changes this season. That should also make the networks more cautious.”

ABC, which introduces its lineup tomorrow, is expected to swap a few of its established and newer shows in order to give a lift to several second-year series and give its schedule better flow.

“Brothers & Sisters,” which airs behind “Desperate Housewives” on Sundays, is rumored to be switching slots with Wednesday 10 p.m. show “Dirty Sexy Money,” a low-rated critical favorite that skews fairly young.

The network may also inherit two already-established sitcoms, CBS’s “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and NBC’s “Scrubs,” to kick start its long-struggling comedy development. And it’s expected to replace “The Bachelor” on Mondays with a new dramedy.

One surprise could be the renewal of “Eli Stone,” the quirky dramedy that put up very low ratings behind “Lost” this winter. It could get the plum post-“Grey’s” slot on Thursday, where ABC has struggled to launch new dramas in the past.

Usually steady CBS may actually have a lot of minor changes. The network presents its schedule Wednesday, and rumor has it that “Without a Trace” will take over the troubled Tuesday 10 p.m. slot, while dramas “Shark” and “The Unit” will be canceled.

That will leave the post-“CSI” spot open for a new drama, perhaps one in development from Jerry Bruckheimer. Sundays would also get one new drama, while two new comedies would join the schedule, one on Wednesday, to be paired with either “Christine” or “Rules of Engagement,” which will move from Monday.

“The betting seems to be on ‘Trace’ being moved since it would be a two-fer, improving ratings and also opening up the post-‘CSI’ slot to use as a launch platform,” Scardino says.

Fox, which presents Thursday, has renewed “’Til Death” but axed "Back to You," continuing its attempt to find a successful sitcom block outside of Sunday nights. The new J.J. Abrams drama “Fringe” has already received an order and could be paired with “House,” the network’s No. 1 scripted series.

“Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles” has also been renewed and will likely remain Mondays with “Prison Break.” One interesting rumor making the rounds has new game show “Moment of Truth” moving to Thursdays with “Kitchen Nightmares,” pushing the current Thursday lineup of reality shows “Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?” and “Don’t Forget the Lyrics” to Friday.

As for the CW, which presents Tuesday evening, expect more soapy, young-skewing dramas a la “Gossip Girl.” The network has one additional night to program with the exit of “WWE” later this summer, and it has already given the green light to a much-buzzed-about "Beverly Hills, 90210" spinoff.

“Ironically, while losing ‘WWE’ is probably going to hurt ratings in the short term, longer term it will allow the net to be more focused on building its identity,” Scardino notes.