Television
This May sweeps, a far muddier track
By Toni Fitzgerald
May 5, 2008 - 8:32:26 AM

This May sweeps, the real winner may not be who comes out ahead but who sees the smallest viewership decline.

Right now, Fox leads on both counts, but all of the Big Five broadcast networks are seeing steep decreases compared with last year.

Through Thursday, the most recent numbers available, Fox leads sweeps with an average 3.5 adults 18-49 rating and 10 share, off 15 percent from a 4.1/12 last year, according to Nielsen numbers provided by the network.

ABC is in second place at 3.1/9, off 24 percent from last year’s 4.1/12, while CBS has slipped 20 percent, from a 3.5/10 to a 2.8/8. NBC has fallen 19 percent, from a 2.6/7 to a 2.1/6.

The CW is down 21 percent, from a 1.4/4 to a 1.1/3. In the network’s target demographic of adults 18-34, the fall has been a bit sharper, off from a 1.6/5 last year to a 1.2/4 this year.

MyNetworkTV is the only English-language broadcaster seeing increases, albeit from a tiny base. The network is up 67 percent this year from a 0.3/1 last May to a 0.5/0.3 this year.

Certainly digital video recorders account for a small part of the losses. Nielsen’s DVR sample has increased by more than half from last year, now accounting for nearly a quarter of all households.

The sweeps numbers cited include only same-day DVR playback, and top shows like “Desperate Housewives” and “The Office” often see a 10 percent increase or better in their ratings when seven-day DVR playback is calculated.

But there are other factors at play as well, and one remains the lingering effects of the strike. NBC, for example, has much less original, scripted content than it did during the 2007 sweeps after choosing to delay the return of several scripted series until next year following the disruptive writers’ strike.

That means the network is without its top scripted drama from last May, “Heroes,” as well as one of its top new shows last fall, “Chuck.” Instead its schedule contains a lot of low-rated, unscripted filler, like “Saturday Night Live” specials or additional hours of hit game show “Deal or No Deal,” making comparisons to last May somewhat misleading.

Too, a number of hit shows are seeing double-digit declines compared with last May, including ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy,” CBS’s “CSI” and Fox’s “American Idol.” That’s resulted in a hit to weekly averages, since those shows are among the top-rated on television.

Sweeps end on May 21, two weeks from Wednesday. Fox also leads among adults 18-34, teens 12-17 and adults 25-54, where CBS has a slight lead over ABC for No. 2.