Last week it looked like the writers' strike could go on forever, with both sides again sniping publicly at one another.
That all changed over the weekend. Now it's looking like the strike could be settled by January, if not sooner.
Everything is again back in play, but the action has moved beyond the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, and it's being led by other cooler heads in their exasperation over the collapse of negotiations.
Key is a move, announced over the weekend, by David Letterman to strike an independent deal with the WGA to spring his writers and get his show back on the air.
Letterman's Worldwide Pants produces "Late Show with David Letterman" and also the "Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson," two of the late night shows most hurt by the strike. The WGA will meet with Letterman and has vowed to open negotiations with other production companies as well.
A Letterman deal could break loose a flood of similar deals. Letterman going back would open the way for Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien.
As it is, just this morning NBC announced that "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and "Late Night with Conan O'Brien" will return to the air on Jan. 2 without writers.
But that's hardly the only force that could bring a fast resolution to the strike.
Always looming in the background were the pending talks with the Directors Guild of America, whose contract runs out in the spring. Now the latest word is that the DGA will begin talks with the studios in early January, and a quick settlement would seem likely.
That becomes a real problem for the WGA. A DGA deal would all but eliminate any hope on the part of the WGA of gaining the concessions it has been seeking from the studios regarding fees for content its member writers create for the internet, a key area of contention.
Whatever deal the DGA reached with the studios would become the template for the other unions, and that deal would likely offer little if any concessions in the area of new media, which is a low priority for directors.
All of this boxes the writers, of course. If they don't get back to the negotiating table and make major concessions, they'll get frozen out. And while they had won a lot of support early on from the public and other unions, that's all grown quite thin by now, especially among the unions, whose members have now been out of work a month and a half over a beef that is not theirs.
The WGA has said its stand will not be affected by a DGA deal but few believe that.
But the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers isn't in particularly good shape either. Its member studios released a statement of unity over the weekend, a direct response to the WGA vow to negotiate with individual studios directly.
But it's not particularly convincing. If Letterman should break away, cutting his own deal, the floodgate would be open. And Letterman seems very committed to doing just that.
Letterman is hoping to reach an interim agreement this week, and that would have him back on the air in January.
Further, Letterman is a member of the guild and supportive of writers, so odds are he'll concede in the very areas of new media where the AMPTP has been most resistant. The Letterman deal would then become the template for deals between the WGA and other studios.
Which way will it go? Will the WGA get boxed out? Or will it be the AMPTP?
It almost doesn't matter.
