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The real test for
NBC next fall: Jay Leno


Many media people think it's headed for disaster

May 4, 2009

When NBC releases its fall schedule today, there may be some surprises, but for media buyers the big NBC story for fall is the one they've know about for some months, the new Jay Leno chat show at 10 pm. weekdays.

For most, it's a story they'd rather not hear.

NBC has a lot of reasons for scrapping scripted series at 10 in favor of Leno, and not the least is the money the network stands to save.

But more media buyers than not think it's still a dumb idea, according to a Media Life poll last week.

Media Life asked readers what NBC needed to turn around.

"Cancelling Jay Leno at 10 p.m. for 5 nights," wrote one respondent. And another wrote: "Saying that Jay Leno will not be on every night M-F."

Asked the most critical issue facing NBC, nearly half, more than 42 percent, agreed with this statement:

"Proving the Jay Leno model wasn’t a stupid idea. Already there’s been some minor rebellion among NBC affiliates. This is a risky move, and if it backfires, NBC will be in even deeper trouble."

But Leno is hardly the only issue facing the network. Right after, at just under 42 percent, was this response:

"Finding promising scripted programming. Nearly all of its strong scripted shows are past their prime, and it must find worthy successors to 'ER' and 'Law & Order.'"

Just 16 percent thought NBC's biggest issue was one of identity, agreeing with this statement: "Finding a new identity. Targeting young men hasn’t really worked, despite the success of “Sunday Night Football.” The network needs to figure out a new strategy."

Asked for their overall take one the new Leno show, just 14 percent thought it was a smart idea, agreeing with this statement:

"It’s brilliant. Networks need to take risks to succeed, and for a network that’s managing for margins, as NBC is, this is a cost-efficient, potentially lucrative move."

More than twice that number, 38 percent, thought it was a bad idea, agreeing with this statement: "It’s a disaster. Why not just run up a white flag? NBC will receive marginal ratings and that will hurt the 11 p.m. newscasts of its local affiliates."

The rest, 48 percent, weren't sure either way, though they too had their doubts, agreeing with this statement: "It’s an interesting idea, but I’m wary of the dearth of scripted programming on the network. And every night is a little too much Leno."

Readers seem to be in far more agreement about why NBC is suffering as it is, and they attach a name to it, Ben Silverman, the network's programming chief the past several years, along with his boss, Jeff Zucker, head of NBC.

"As long as Zucker-Silverman are in charge there is little hope for a turnaround," wrote one reader, in answer to the question of what NBC had to do to turn around. Another put it this way: "New regime at the top." And yet another wrote: "I want the real NBC back. Fire Zucker!!"

Asked to rate Silverman on a scale of 1 to 10, the largest share of readers, 21 percent, game him a 2, while 20 percent gave him a 4 and 16 percent gave him a 1.

In all, some three fourths of respondents gave Silverman a 4 or below.

Of NBC shows on the bubble, readers have the highest hopes for “Southland” returning next year, at 37 percent. They gave "Parks & Recreation” the next best shot at 28 percent. Both have reportedly been renewed.

Third came "Chuck" at 15 percent and fourth came "Medium" at 11 percent. Readers had the lowest expectations for "My Name is Earl," with just 10 percent believing it will be picked up for another season.

Of the NBC shows that delivered the most for NBC this past year, "Biggest Loser" came out on top, followed by "Sunday Night Football,” at 37 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Third was "The Office" at 19 percent and fourth "ER" at 13 percent.

Of the upfront presentations coming up, media buyers and planners are most interested in seeing what ABC rolls out for the fall.

Asked which network's fall schedule they were most eager to see, 39 percent chose ABC, but NBC came in not far behind at 27 percent. Fox was third at 15 percent and CBS fourth at 13 percent. The CW generated the lower level of interest, just 5 percent.



Louisa Ada Seltzer is a staff writer for Media Life.




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