 |
Last year the Academy Awards seemed to offer little suspense. Expected acting winners Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren and Jennifer Hudson all prevailed, as did sentimental favorite Martin Scorsese, winning his first Oscar for “The Departed.” This year, however, some of the categories are a bit more suspenseful. Julie Christie looked like an early lock for her performance as an Alzheimer’s patient in “Away From Her,” but in recent weeks “La Vie en Rose’s” Marion Cotillard has edged up following buzz over her performance, which stretches over 28 years of French singer Edith Piaf’s life. Even “Michael Clayton” star George Clooney, following coverage of his recent United Nations humanitarian trip, has moved into contention, though most still think the Oscar will go to “There Will Be Blood’s” Daniel Day-Lewis, who had the year’s best catchphrase with “I drink your milkshake.” Interestingly, this competition comes at a time when the nasty campaigning that used to define the Oscars has, for the most part, abated. There’s been very little controversial or unusual about the run-up to this Academy Awards, save the writers’ strike that endangered it for months. To help handicap the telecast, Media Life talked to Erik Childress, vice president of the Chicago Film Critics’ Association and writer of eFilmCritic.com’s “Oscar Eye.”
Which category is the most competitive this year?
Of the major categories, actress is the most interesting race. For a long time it was perceived as a Julie Christie (“Away from Her”) vs. Ellen Page (“Juno”) race, but “La Vie en Rose’s” Marion Cotillard has picked up steam and moved ahead of Page. Now it’s a case of the legend who hasn’t won an Oscar in 40 years and, arguably, the most transformed performance of the year.
I still have Christie winning but this could be one of the upsets to watch for.
The single most competitive category overall this year is the one for Best Cinematography. Every film is a worthy winner and you have the prospect of a dual nomination for Roger Deakins, nominated now seven times without a victory.
But will [his films] “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” and “No Country for Old Men” split the vote and pave the way for “There Will Be Blood?”
If they do give it to Deakins (and I think they will), my gut is telling me they spread the wealth and give it to him for “Jesse James,” a film that is never discussed without bringing up his work on it.
Are there any categories that are seen as a lock, like best actor and best actress were last year?
I think both of the male acting categories are locks.
Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't have quite the competition that he did when he was nominated for “Gangs of New York” back in 2002 and got upset, not by Jack Nicholson but by Adrien Brody. His performance in “There Will Be Blood” is already considered legendary, and not just because of the milkshake line.
Also, “No Country for Old Men’s” Javier Bardem has seemingly won nearly every award leading up to the Oscars, including all the majors. There’s sentimental value in Hal Holbrook getting his first nomination, but Bardem is just too towering in that role to be forgotten. And I don't see them [giving the trophy to the sentimental favorite] two years in a row after Alan Arkin beating Eddie Murphy last year. They'll switch categories and do it for [best supporting actress nominee] Ruby Dee this time.
Are there any categories where the nominees or frontrunners have created controversy?
Not really. Controversy is down this year compared to years past over historical accuracy or who might be a jerk, etc.
Some have tried to stir up trouble with Julian Schanbel being heckled by Sean Young [at the Directors Guild of America awards], but even he played it off as a non-story -- and despite winning the Golden Globe, he’s never really been a frontrunner anyway.
There’s an anti-“Juno” camp who never miss out an opportunity to badmouth the movie but they are even drunker than Sean Young.
A few years back, it seemed that Oscar campaigning was nearly as entertaining as the awards themselves. Have campaigns been scaled back in the time since then? Which ones were the most innovative this year?
The only one I’ve even heard anything about was the sending out of milkshake cups for “There Will Be Blood.” Other than that, I’m still hoping to get a cattle gun, a car bomb, Keira Knightley and a box of condoms from the other nominees.
Do you think that viewership for the awards will see a noticeable bump or decline because of the writers' strike?
I don't think you’ll see any noticeable difference. People never tuned into the Oscars for the writing, unless there’s some Bruce Vilanch fan club I’m not aware of.
With the lack of original programming still out there, the Oscars will probably be a welcome change from lie detectors and “Sex and the City” wannabes.
Of the best picture nominees this year, only one, "Juno," has been a big commercial success. Will that impact viewership for this year's awards?
The numbers never seem to be impacted because of success stories. Last year only “The Departed” was a $100 million dollar grosser. If you’re just comparing dollar signs, “No Country for Old Men” is close to “Little Miss Sunshine.” “Atonement” got a bump from the nominations just like “The Queen” did.
In 2005, none of the films were over $60 million until the weeks leading up to the ceremony. The Oscars are an event and people tend to blindly tune in, whether for having a serious stake in the race, to have water cooler fodder, or, and here’s a novel idea, keeping an ear out for suggestions on what to go see or rent.
They may not always want to listen to critics (who in some way or another are out in front of the Oscars paving the road for about six weeks before ballots are finalized), but they may just listen to the awards and steer their way in favor of a “There Will Be Blood” instead of “Fool’s Gold.”
Jon Stewart didn't get great reviews in his first appearance as Oscar host. What do you expect to see from him this time -- more edge to his humor, perhaps, or a different tone?
I don’t see him having a different tone.
If anything, he’s got nothing to lose after being asked back, and he can get really wicked with the writers’ strike and this being the last Oscars we’ll have with Dubya as president.
Hopefully he’ll play up the best bit he had last time with the negative Oscar campaign videos. And since the last time he was host, Scorsese has tied up Three Six Mafia one-to-one.
