Most years, after the broadcast networks preview their fall shows, media buyers start counting off the likely bombs, the shows that’ll debut and vanish in a flash.

That's less the case this year.

The networks are rolling out some 22 new shows this September, and media buyers think almost half stand a pretty good chance of becoming hits, either because they’re creatively above par or they’re creatively good enough to survive in cushy timeslots.

Last year there were but a handful of shows buyers thought stood a chance, fewer than normal, and the blame went to the writers' strike, which ended that spring but not before disrupting the networks’ program development for the fall.

Come this fall, the one show almost all media people think is a likely hit is ABC’s "Modern Family" with Ed O’Neill from Fox’s old "Married…with Children."

The show, airing on Wednesdays at 9 p.m., is a comedy filmed as a documentary about three families.

"The pilot was hysterical," says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at RPA in Santa Monica, Calif. The one worry, he notes, is that ABC's Wednesday lineup is all new. "So as good as the show is, that may trip it up."

ABC probably also has a hit with "FlashForward," a sci-fi drama where everyone sees a glimpse of their lives six months into the future. It airs at 8 p.m. on Thursdays.

Another show media buyers think will do well is CBS’s "NCIS: Los Angeles," a spinoff of the network’s hit "NCIS" that follows that show on Tuesdays.

CBS’s "The Good Wife" with "ER’s" Julianna Margulies is expected to do well on Tuesdays at 10 p.m. against light competition, NBC’s "Jay Leno" and the new ABC Jerry Bruckheimer drama "The Forgotten."

Fox should do well with its summer hit "So You Think You Can Dance" when it returns in the fall to air in the same timeslots "American Idol" airs in during the spring, Tuesdays at 8 and Wednesdays at 9.

The idea is that viewers have gotten used to watching a top reality series in those timeslots, and that it makes sense to program a reality series there in the fall as well.

But buyers caution not to expect "Dance" to pull anywhere near "Idol" numbers. Too, there's always the risk that "Dance" suffers from over-exposure by returning to the air so quickly.

Media buyers say Fox's "The Cleveland Show," from the team behind "Family Guy," isn’t a great show but should do well sandwiched in between "The Simpsons" and "Family Guy" on Sundays.

NBC’s schedule is a bit of a disaster with only two hours of non-Leno shows each night, and media buyers say most its new shows are weak.

Still, some hold out hope for the comedy "Community" with Chevy Chase, which will air at 8 p.m. during NBC’s Thursday comedy block.

"‘Community’ looks pretty good, although it may have a tough time leading off the night," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media.

And the CW is expected to do well with its shows, which are increasingly zeroing in on its young female audience, including a new version of "Melrose Place" and the new "Vampire Diaries."

"The CW is smart with their laser-focus on their demo, and dipping into the vampire trend is a no-brainer," says Don Seaman, vice president and director of communications analysis at MPG.

But, of course, not all the networks’ new shows will be hits.

Topping the list of likely bombs are the CBS sitcom "Accidentally on Purpose" with Jenna Elfman, the Fox sitcom "Brothers" and the ABC reality show "Shark Tank."

And almost no one thinks NBC’s "Jay Leno" will pull big numbers every weeknight at 10 p.m., certainly not compared to ratings for original scripted dramas that aired at 10 for decades.