The big broadcast
story of 2010: NBC
It could well be a whole new story under Comcast
By Toni Fitzgerald
Dec 23, 2009
Fox, ABC and CBS all had something to celebrate in 2009. Fox won its fifth straight season among adults 18-49, CBS was the only network to see year-to-year gains, and ABC finally added a few buzzy new shows to its lineup.
As for NBC, well, it had a hugely successful Super Bowl and not much else.
But in 2010, the story will be NBC, more specifically whether the network that dominated the late 1990s and early 2000s can climb back into contention under new owner Comcast and whether the Jay Leno experiment will be declared a success or failure, based on a full year of results.
All the other issues facing broadcast -- continued viewer erosion due to time-shifting and cable gains, the struggles of the CW, and the series finale of ABC staple "Lost" -- will be secondary to what happens to NBC.
"There is not likely to be much impact on NBC during the short term from the Comcast acquisition," notes former Magna researcher Steve Sternberg, a veteran television analyst. "Viewers care little about corporate ownership. What matters is what's put on the small screen. NBC has had problems developing successful scripted programming for years."
Those years included cutting costs and managing for the bottom line under General Electric. In recent years NBC has heavied up on cheap unscripted programming and even briefly eliminated the pilot process in an effort to save money. Notably, all of its fall series were canceled that year.
If Comcast wants NBC to prosper in a way that it has not in recent years, the cable company will need to pour money into program development and decide whether its goal is to rebuild to challenge for first among 18-49s or rebrand as more of a niche network.
"With Leno taking up five hours of programming, NBC was supposed to have more resources to spend on fewer series, which they hoped would lead to more hits. It hasn't worked out this season," says Sternberg.
"It's really been NBC's 'Sunday Night Football' that has kept its ratings afloat during fourth quarter."
Whatever path Comcast pursues will determine whether "The Jay Leno Show" remains at 10 p.m. The network gave the comedian a nightly primetime talk show to save millions of dollars per year on scripted programming.
The show thus far has met the very modest profitability goal of averaging a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating or above, but media people remain skeptical that its ratings will increase opposite ABC and CBS repeats and in the summer.
If Comcast does decide to rebuild, Leno could be one of the first casualties.
"If cost containment is Comcast's major goal, Leno should remain at 10 p.m. If they want to re-establish NBC as a premier broadcast network, it may not last beyond next season," Sternberg predicts. "Of course, it would be difficult to re-populate the 10 p.m. hour all at once in the fall."
As for the other big storylines in broadcast next year, the networks will continue to deal with the issue of time-shifting, both by DVRs and online TV.
Viewers are increasingly enamored with making their own schedules, which has been evident in heavy DVR playback for shows like "Ugly Betty," "Smallville" and "Fringe" that air either on Friday, when viewers are out of their homes, or in competitive timeslots.
The CW's inconsistencies also remain an issue. The network has one of the year's big success stories with "The Vampire Diaries," yet the new "Melrose Place" has struggled and signature hit "America's Next Top Model" is aging.
But media people are most concerned that the network get more original shows on the air and eliminate long strings of reruns, including the summer months when the CW is all but dormant.
Finally, next year will bring to an end one of the most influential series of the decade, ABC's "Lost." The show debuted as part of the hugely successful class of 2004-'05, which also includes ABC's "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy," Fox's "House" and NBC's "The Office."
Six seasons later, these remain top programs on television, and "Lost," which has inspired knockoffs/successors from "Heroes" to "FlashForward," will be the first to end.
Beyond the question of how ABC will replace the show, the real issue is how the heck will it tie up its various mysteries? The mythology-steeped series has long been a favorite among media people, and it will generate a huge amount of buzz as its finale nears.
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