The Leno question:
Will viewers return?
Longtime 'Tonight' host returns to his chair Monday
By Diego Vasquez
Feb 26, 2010
On Monday, Jay Leno will return to hosting "The Tonight Show" on NBC, closing a six-week drama that saw his primetime show get canceled, NBC part ways with "Tonight" host Conan O'Brien and Leno accept his old gig again, during which Leno's reputation took a bit of a beating as the guy who forced Conan out. Now, after weeks of over-the-top media coverage and even a surprise Super Bowl commercial with CBS rival David Letterman, Leno will find out if late night really did miss him. Media researchers do not expect Leno's ratings to be as strong as when he left last June, but they do think he will eventually rise back to No. 1, a position Letterman has held in Leno's absence. Leno has a loyal older audience, and while his popularity levels have fallen after the NBC fiasco, people generally have short memories. They will forgive Leno, and have probably already forgotten some of it. Lisa Quan, vice president and director of audience analysis at Magna, talks to Media Life about Leno's prospects, how Letterman and ABC's "Nightline" will fare against him, and where O'Brien will pop up next.
Do you think Leno will return to No. 1 in late night? If so, do you think it will happen immediately, or will it be a few months? If not, why not?
We don’t expect “Tonight Show” to return to 2008 levels again, but it should take the lead back.
Leno’s return to the “Tonight Show” will pop right at the beginning, similar to a new or returning series premiere, and then settle down some, relative to late night of course. Some viewers that left broadcast altogether will likely return, and he will win back at least part of the 50-plus audience that moved to CBS.
"Nightline" and Letterman have both done quite well in Leno's absence. Do you think they will lose whatever gains they had made when he returns? Why or why not?
They won’t lose their entire ratings gains. It’s been several months of changed late night viewing habits. Some viewers will have made their choices. Too much schedule changing is off-putting to many people.
Has NBC done a good job of promoting Leno's return to "Tonight" during the Olympics? If not, how could they have done it better?
NBC is certainly placing promos in the right place, reaching a broad spectrum of viewers using the Olympics, which has a similarly aged audience.
I do like that they are not hammering you over the head with promos, unlike some other shows the network is promoting.
Do you think the whole fiasco with Conan O'Brien has done any permanent damage to Leno's reputation? Or is that more of a media conceit than anything else?
A little of both has happened. The changes weren’t necessarily any one person/entity’s fault so you can’t fully lay blame for what happened squarely on Leno’s shoulders. But his reputation is banged up.
What lesson can NBC take away from this whole late-night fiasco?
You can’t force viewers and your affiliates to accept all the network dictates.
Do you think the network will see its 10 p.m. ratings rise with Leno gone, or is it too little, too late for this year?
Overall network averages won’t see much of an increase this late into the season. You will see slight fluctuations going forward for individual days of the week in the remainder of the season though.
Do you think Conan O'Brien will land at Fox this fall, or do you see him going to another network or medium?
Depending on the offer and how disillusioned he might have been made, Conan could end up anywhere.
Fox has been mentioned as the most likely network but getting affiliates on-board for fall start might be a stumbling block.
Cable is an option and it would be pretty cool to see him on Comedy Central leading into “Daily Show” and “Colbert,” but I haven’t heard any rumblings along those lines.
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