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after 'Oprah' wraps up The end of the syndicated show will change daytime TV Nov 20, 2009 When word came yesterday that Oprah Winfrey will quit her syndicated talk show in 2011, after 25 years, there was one question on media people's minds: What will it mean? What will it mean to the mainly ABC stations that have carried her for years? What will it mean for the competition, which has struggled to keep pace? What will it mean to Winfrey's long-delayed Oprah Winfrey Network, now scheduled to debut in '11? And what will it mean for syndication, which is losing its best-known and top-rated host? There are no easy answers to any of those questions, though there are plenty of opinions. First, how will "Oprah's" exit affect the just over 200 local stations who air her? The biggest hurt will be felt by ABC, which carries "Oprah" in nine of the country's top 10 markets. Though those stations have to pay a huge licensing fee, Winfrey's show commands high advertising rates and, perhaps more importantly, delivers a huge lead-in to the local newscasts that cannot be duplicated by any potential replacement. For the week ended Nov. 8, "Oprah" averaged 6.6 million total viewers, according to Nielsen, 2.7 million more than No. 2 talk show "Dr. Phil." Most likely, rather than replacing "Oprah" with another syndicated show, ABC will experiment with a 4 p.m. newscast on its owned and operated stations. That would save on expensive licensing fees--"Oprah" is estimated to cost upwards of $200,000 a week at top stations--and the network would be building on its strength. ABC newscasts are already local leaders. The non-ABC stations that air "Oprah" likely will be looking for a syndicated replacement. They have been strategizing for this day, knowing that Winfrey was hedging over renewing her contract. One scenario has Sony's "Dr. Oz," an "Oprah" spinoff, moving into her slots. Though the show currently airs on Fox stations in many markets, it has not secured a second-season renewal, which is believed to be because Sony wants so much for it. If Fox stations won't pay, those looking for an "Oprah" replacement surely will. One group that definitely stands to benefit from "Oprah's" departure is anyone competing against her. That includes Ellen DeGeneres, who airs opposite "Oprah" in some top markets, and could see her ratings spike when her rival leaves. Also likely to gain are the newscasts of competing stations if the "Oprah" stations don't find a strong replacement. Winfrey has not said whether she'll host a show on OWN, but it's expected she will. The big issue is what time her new show would air. Unlike in syndication, a cable show would air at the same time across the country. Would it be at 9 a.m., where "Oprah" is carried on Chicago flagship station WLS, or would it be in early afternoon, where she would compete with soap operas and other syndie fare? One thing's for sure, OWN will be available in more households than if "Oprah" had stayed in syndication. Cable operators who had wavered on the network will now be eager to carry it, because it could entice new customers. Though no figures are available, it seems reasonable to assume that some "Oprah" viewers do not currently have cable. They'd have to sign up in order to see her new show. That should boost OWN's household distribution well beyond the 75 million who subscribe to Discovery Health, the placeholder for OWN until its launch. Finally, what does Winfrey's departure mean to syndication? The segment is losing its top-rated talk show, even if she delivers far fewer viewers than she did in her heyday. It will also lose advertising dollars if the ABC stations switch to news. But most of all, syndication is losing its face. Winfrey's show is seen in 145 countries. She has a popular magazine, a huge book club and a net worth of more than $2.5 billion. And at this point at least there's no new hot show in the wings to take her place.
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