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Pondering the ills and promise of NBC
By Diego Vasquez
Nov 19, 2009 - 1:10:40 AM
Fox is No. 1 this season, CBS has TV's top show in total viewers, and ABC has the most-buzzed-about new shows. But this season's two biggest storylines are actually at NBC, the longtime fourth-place network. The most important, of course, is NBC Universal's rumored acquisition by Comcast, which is looking to buy out Vivendi and take a 51 percent stake in the broadcast and cable company. General Electric would retain 49 percent. The deal should go through just as soon as Vivendi approves it, at which point the next big question will be whether Jeff Zucker will remain head of the Comcast-controlled NBCU. The other big storyline is Jay Leno. "The Jay Leno Show" is an experiment that's being watched closely by media buyers. The five-nights-a-week strip, which premiered big in September, will be profitable for NBC if it can maintain a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, which it has so far. The show has hit peaks and valleys depending on the competition, but while NBC's season average has declined 13 percent, to a 2.7, not all of it can be blamed on "Leno." Its new shows have struggled, and some veterans, such as "Heroes" and "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit," have fallen to series lows in new timeslots. Gary Carr, senior vice president and executive director of national broadcast at TargetCast TCM, talks to Media Life about what areas NBC needs to improve, what the prospects are for "Leno," and what NBC would look like under Comcast.
On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being not at all improved and 10 being the most of any network, how much has NBC improved compared to last year?
Three at best. The ratings are down, no new shows are doing well, and even their shows from last year are down. There’s no improvement.
They’ve got to have shows that people want to watch. But if I knew how to improve them, I wouldn’t be buying TV time, I’d be a programmer.
What are the network's biggest strengths this fall?
Their Thursday night comedies, although not ratings winners, are very well-written, very funny shows.
“Sunday Night Football” is doing well, but alas, it will end soon.
What are its biggest weaknesses, and how would you like to see them addressed?
Unfortunately Jay Leno is not helping their ratings, but do they have anything better to air? Shouldn’t they try? The scary thing is, they don’t they have anything better.
As great as the “Law & Order” franchise is, audiences can see it in so many other places. It’s been a great franchise, but two or three cable networks run it every single night. Nobody has to turn to NBC to watch “Law & Order,” they can watch it anywhere. They’re giving people fewer and fewer reasons to watch their network.
Although Thursday night is very funny, it has too much “Saturday Night Live” alumni humor, which is not mass. Although I like it, it’s just not mass enough, it’s all this inside “SNL” hip humor that much of America doesn’t get.
Plus, there’s some pretty damn tough competition that night. CBS and ABC have big shows that night, so it’s tough to begin with. As for their hip, limited-appeal comedies, although I find them brilliant, most of America probably doesn’t.
How have its new shows performed compared to past seasons?
They just can’t seem to get any traction. “Parenthood” looked promising, but it got de-railed for a while.
“Trauma” looked interesting, but it didn’t seem like anything different.
It seems "The Jay Leno Show" has been anything from a complete failure to a fiscal success, if you believe the media. What's your take on the show? Is it too early to call it either way?
They say they did it for fiscal reasons, and I’m sure it is helping there. There just seems to be some spark missing, just enough to not be “The Tonight Show.”
There’s just something about it—I’ll watch it once a week--but he’s just not as funny as he once was; I’m not laughing that hard. Maybe they’re saving money but look—do it three nights a week. Why not something a bit more interesting two nights a week?
They’re giving away their great brand name. Even George Lopez is on TBS just four nights a week. It’s like NBC is just giving up. It’s like they’re not even trying.
All they’re saying, in my eyes, is, “Yeah, we have some audience, would you like to buy it? We do reach some people.” They’re not saying, “Hey, buy us, we’re a fantastic network with brilliant shows.”
Will "Leno" still be on the schedule this time next year?
I don’t know. Maybe they should think about not running it five times per week. Try something distinctive.
The addition of "Leno" at 10 p.m. necessitated some programming moves, such as putting "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" and the original "L&O" earlier in the night, where their ratings have fallen. Has "Leno" hurt the rest of the network's schedule, or is it too simplistic to blame the show for NBC's struggles?
It hasn’t helped. But the lack of hit shows has hurt them just as much.
I can’t help but remember what they said about the show last spring: “We manage for margins.”
They said if we do a 1.5 in the demo, “Leno’s” a success. It’s done that, and it may be doing okay fiscally, but it’s not helping the network. The stations I’m sure aren’t thrilled. Jay Leno’s great, and it was a bold move, but it just seems they’re capitulating.
They’re saying, “We’re a major network but we’re content to think of ourselves as just another cable network.” Or at least that seems to be what they’re doing, although I hate seeing it.
But it’s not NBC’s fault, the economics of the model aren’t working anymore. They can’t generate the revenues for these $3 million-per-episode shows. And so they’re trying to put just enough on to get some eyeballs and they can charge for it. But that’s not what network television is supposed to be.
How do you see the rumored acquisition of NBC by Comcast as impacting the network's longer-term strategy?
Comcast is basically a distribution company trying to establish content credentials. The acquisition may help them, particularly if they inject some cable cash into NBC.
It’s come this far after it started out as a rumor, and the more you hear of it, the more it looks like it’s going to happen. From what I know about GE, they want to be in businesses that make profits and are No. 1 or 2 in their space, and maybe they’re not getting that with NBC. Maybe they just don’t see the growth. Certainly there’s growth on cable.
It makes a lot of sense. Comcast owns cable systems in about 25 percent of the country, and now they own E! and a few other networks and they want to grow in that space. So NBC makes a lot of sense. They get all these great cable networks as well as the broadcast network.
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