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The writers’ strike made for an unusual television season, and one of its effects has been to cut down on the number of shows on the bubble for renewal. With NBC moving its schedule announcement to early April and CBS and ABC giving early pickups to a number of strike-afflicted programs, there just aren’t as many shows whose fate remains in doubt heading into next month’s upfront presentations. NBC’s “Life” and ABC’s “Dirty Sexy Money,” two shows whose low ratings might have doomed them in any other season, have already received second-season orders because their launches were interrupted by the strike. Even NBC’s cancellation of “Scrubs,” the long-running Thursday night comedy, will have a happy ending. ABC, whose ABC Studios produces the show, is expected to pick it up. And Fox just renewed “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” despite a viewership slide after premiering behind a high-rated NFL playoff game, because it showed a lot of creative promise. Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research with MediaCom, talks to Media Life about the impact of the strike, which bubble shows will get reprieves, and why “According to Jim” won’t be among them.
Obviously this has been an unusual season because of the strike. Are there more or less bubble shows than usual?
I think the strike has actually made for less bubble shows because some that kicked off this past fall were starting to find their audience. When they were interrupted, the networks said, “Let’s just hold back and re-launch them. Let’s almost treat those as new shows, giving them almost an abbreviated half season and then bring them back in the fall.”
They want to keep some of the anticipation for these shows high.
Several bubble shows, like "Dirty Sexy Money" or "Life," certainly fit that description. Do you think these new shows stand a chance at getting stronger next fall, or is this simply delaying the inevitable?
With some of the shows I think it is delaying the inevitable.
I think NBC was very high on “Life,” as you can tell, but the show leading into it, “Bionic Woman,” had a lot of buzz then only lasted few weeks and is not returning. So they must have some hope for “Life.” But I think it’s going to be tough to get it off the ground because it lacks a real star.
“Chuck” maybe has a better chance. It was in a lineup with “Heroes” and people saw it more, so I hold out a little more hope for that.
“Dirty Sexy Money” is a tough animal in that it’s a soap opera, and it takes time for viewers to find those shows. Most are not hits right off the bat. There are exceptions, but most serialized soaps take time to develop characters.
If ABC puts it somewhere else, maybe after “Dancing with the Stars,” it could find some more viewers. And it certainly has some star power behind it.
Which network has the largest number of bubble shows? Why?
The tough thing is, when you talk about bubble shows, you have to leave out NBC because they’ve already announced their schedule.
But I do have a number of question marks, and I think ABC has the most. But they do also have the most number of shows that they’re bringing back. There were almost so many midseason shows that there’s now almost double the normal amount of shows that we’re talking about, if that makes sense.
Alphabetically, from “According to Jim” through “Women’s Murder Club,” I’m not sure what the status of these shows are. Most of the bubble shows I do have down for ABC tend to be reality: “Oprah’s Big Give,” “Here Come the Newlyweds,” “Just for Laughs” and of course “The Bachelor.”
And there’s “Wife Swap,” which does okay. And it did pick up a cable run.
As far as dramas, I don’t believe “Eli Stone” will be back. “Boston Legal” I expect ABC to renew, but “Men in Trees” could be canceled. People are just not finding it. And then “Women’s Murder Club,” which was doing solid numbers for them, at least on a Friday level. And it also all depends on what their development is like.
The CW has two programs, "Aliens in America" and "Reaper," that have had very low ratings despite critical acclaim. Considering they've already renewed "Gossip Girl," do either of these shows have a shot at a second season?
Well I can almost guarantee that “Aliens” will not be back, I think that’s the direction they’re leaning. For CW comedies, “Girlfriends” is already gone. “Everybody Hates Chris” will be back, and I think they may choose to renew “The Game.” But now they have two new hours to fill since wrestling is leaving Friday nights.
I don’t know about “Reaper.” I happen to be a fan of the show, but it’s 50-50 at this point. It’s the definition of a bubble show. And “Beauty and the Geek” is kind of a question mark as well.
Did this season have a breakout new hit?
That’s a really good question. If the season had continued we may have seen some, but it got interrupted.
“Terminator” did very well for Fox, and on the reality front they also had a minor hit in “The Moment of Truth.”
As far as all the other new product, a lot of them were really borderline. “Samantha Who?” started out well, but it had the huge “Stars” lead in.
There are murmurs that ABC may pick up NBC's "Scrubs" and CBS's "The New Adventures of Old Christine," if the latter is not renewed by CBS. Obviously ABC has struggled to develop strong comedies on its own, though neither of these has a large audience. Do you think these would be smart programming moves?
Yeah, I could see that working. If you team either of those with, say, “Samantha Who?,” they could have something. But I think ABC in the past has been known for their comedy, and if anyone would go out on limb to bring more comedy to its lineup, ABC or maybe NBC would be that network.
I do think ABC will finally get rid of “According to Jim.”
Which bubble show will surprise people and actually make the cut? Which bubble shows do you think will be left behind?
There’s always going to be some in each of those situations.
According to CBS, they still have “Shark” on the bubble, but it’s done strong numbers so I think it will be back. But I do think they’ll end “The Unit.” It’s a war subject, and it’s kind of tough, and I think that it’s not going to make the cut.
Fox might actually go the extra yard and bring “New Amsterdam” back. It’s that time-traveling, science fiction kind of show and Fox may be able to find a timeslot for that one.
I wouldn’t be surprised of CW did bring back “Reaper,” because it’s sort of that dramedy genre, and they really do need to fill out their schedule. The “90210” spinoff can’t run every night of the week.
