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Though the network has yet to confirm reports that it will cancel "The Jay Leno Show," it appears the show is a goner. The only question now is when it will end, and it's suddenly looking like sooner rather than later. Three possible scenarios have emerged. The show will stay on the air until the end of the season and then be canceled; Leno will move back to late night following the Olympics; or the timeslot or frequency of the show will change. Whatever is decided, the fiasco once again highlights NBC's lack of long-term vision. The former No. 1 network has seen ratings plunge while relying on short-term solutions, like oversaturation of reality shows like "The Apprentice," "Deal or No Deal" or "American Gladiators," instead of showing patience to develop more viable long-term strategies. When NBC decided to strip the comedian's show weeknights at 10 p.m., it explained it as a bottom-line decision. But it was forced to reconsider by a pending revolt by network affiliates. They have seen ratings plummet at 10 p.m., where "Leno" is averaging a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, giving them smaller lead-ins for their local news. Ratings for those newscasts have dipped accordingly. The affiliates are understandably steamed. The bulk of their revenue comes from ads sold for their local newscasts. There's an urgency to their anger, as they do not want to go through another sweeps, the four-week period used by local stations to set rates for advertisers, with Leno dragging down their numbers. Some affiliates now are threatening to push "Leno" back to 11 p.m. and move their newscasts up to 10 after the Olympics, according to reports. NBC apparently felt it had to placate these stations before the annual local affiliate meeting scheduled for Jan. 21. Thus the rumor emerged yesterday that "Leno" was through. NBC addressed the speculation fitfully, releasing statements first praising "Leno" while admitting to affiliate displeasure, then denying that "Leno" had been canceled, then voicing support for Leno's "Tonight Show" replacement, Conan O'Brien. By last night, the three new scenarios had become clear, and the one that has the most support is that Leno will move back to late night after the Olympics. That creates a tremendous crater in NBC's schedule. The network already has to fill an extra four hours on Sunday nights starting this month with the end of "Sunday Night Football." It simply does not have enough programming on the shelf to fill an additional five hours per week. New show "Trauma," for example, has been dropped, and the network cut back its order for midseason comedy "100 Questions." Speculation is that NBC may repurpose some cable content, which has produced dismal ratings in the past, stock up on cheap reality shows, or move the new drama "Parenthood" and veterans like "Law & Order" and "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" into the later slot. Leno would then go to 11:35 p.m. with a half-hour show, pushing O'Brien and "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" both back by 30 minutes. Another scenario is that "Leno" could move to 8 p.m., away from the local newscasts, though likely still drawing tiny audiences. Leno himself is said to be uncomfortable with that move. NBC could also pull Leno back to three or four nights per week, but that would be a nightmare to rebrand. The final scenario is that "Leno" stays in place until May, when the network announces its new schedule. Though affiliates would still be angry, this would seem to be the safest move, avoiding another potentially disastrous short-term solution. "My guess is that they wait until their upfront/infront or whatever bullshit term they come up with this year and make an announcement that the Jay Leno Show will go off the air immediately maybe, short term, replaced by some Datelines and in the fall NBC reverts back to a 22 hour prime time network schedule," predicts the blog The Masked Scheduler. "Maybe Jay gets some specials or something or maybe he just moves on." Actually, the controversy seems to have been a boon for Leno creatively. He began his monologue last night with several zingers aimed at NBC. Say what you will about Leno's show, these were pretty funny. "As you may have heard, there is a rumor floating around that we were canceled. I heard it coming in this morning on the radio. So far no one has said anything to me. But Kev, if we did get canceled it will give us time to do some traveling. I understand that Fox is beautiful this time of year. "I don’t think there is any truth to the rumors. See, it’s always been my experience that NBC only cancels you when you're in first place. So we are fine. We are okay." © 2012 Media Life |
