Last year was one of change for television, as new technology such as digital video recorders became more widespread and networks raced to make their programs available online, sometimes weeks before their official premieres. 2008 looks once again to be a year of change. While the writers’ strike will continue to be the biggest story, there are also other issues of importance to media buyers, who are still assessing Nielsen’s new commercial ratings and puzzling out the impact of increased DVR penetration. Though the strike has been both a headache and a distraction to media people, they hope that perhaps some good will come out of it, such as an improved upfront and maybe even first-run, first-rate summer shows that advertisers are eager to be involved with. John Rash, senior vice president and director of media negotiations at Campbell Mithun, and Steve Sternberg, executive vice president and director of audience analysis for Magna Global, talk to Media Life about the year to come in television. This is the fourth in a week-long series of 2008 previews with experts in different fields of media.
What are three trends to watch for in 2008 in TV?
Rash: Will a probable national recession become a potential media one? The ultimate resolution of the writers strike. And the effect of the writers strike on the programming and purchasing process of the upfront.
Sternberg: Mobile phone technology, Big Screen HDTV, better quality online video of primetime content (advertisers, viewers, and research will follow the video). And new products will make it easier to get content from PC to TV.
What will be the single biggest change facing the industry over the next few years?
Rash: Technological and sociological shifts will mean more demographic disruption than ever. No media form, or network, is pre-ordained to emerge victorious, so the keen competition for the best ideas will be more important than ever.
Ironically, the crux of the writers’ strike is over repurposing of content on new platforms, but what the broadcast and cable networks should be focusing on is creating compelling content, which is not commensurate with the ability to disseminate channels.
Sternberg: The move toward more granular ratings data. Set-top data combined with demographic panels (and/or modeling) will lead to real sub-minute audience analysis. Real commercial measurement will lead to more, not less, money flowing to traditional television.
What was the biggest story in TV in 2007?
Rash: The writers guild strike.
Sternberg: C3 was and still is the biggest story (writer’s strike a very distant second). The beginning of fundamental shifts in how television commercials are bought and sold. The writer’s strike will end and viewing will normalize, but we will never again use average program ratings as the sole national television currency.
What is the single most important thing for media buyers and planners to know about TV in 2008?
Rash: How the muddled macroeconomic conditions will impact the micro-economy of national broadcast.
Sternberg: That traditional television is as strong as ever, and Nielsen still cannot measure commercial audiences.
What impact will the writers' strike have on ratings over the next few months?
Rash: Among the compelling storylines is not the just a ratings reduction, but the demographic distinctions on which audiences remain loyal to network TV.
Sternberg: If you answer 5-10 percent you will seldom be wrong. That’s how much impact almost anything unusual has on television ratings.
As it stands now, it looks as though the strike will threaten the traditional upfront. Do you think the strike could actually result in some permanent changes in how the upfront is conducted? It's far from a perfect process.
Rash: It should not take a disruptive and counterproductive labor action to act as a change agent, but the upfront television negotiation process is a business model developed in the days of three networks and three martini lunches, so any evolutions would be appropriate for the media industry.
Sternberg: Yes.
How will the strike impact the networks' summer schedules? For example, do you see them airing originals of high-profile series like "CSI" or "Desperate Housewives" in the summer, if the strike ends in the spring?
Rash: January may already look like June due to the writers’ strike, so now more than ever the networks should use summer TV as a time for fresh fare, which has been a successful strategy for the networks’ cable competitors.
Sternberg: Well, I’ve long said that it would be an interesting experiment to hold some high-profile series episodes for summer airing. It’s an important time for many advertisers. Overall television usage is only down about 10 percent in the summer versus the fall. Cable has demonstrated they can improve their ratings in the summer. This may be the time to try it.
How will cable be impacted by the strike?
Rash: Overall, cable is less dependent on original scripted series, but many marquee programs that define the media form may go dark, so the impact will be felt.
Sternberg: No significant impact.
