During the summer months, viewers have become programmed to look to cable for fresh programming as the broadcast networks go into a heavy rotation of reality shows. Come January, with the writers’ strike ongoing and the broadcast networks readying slates stacked with reality shows, cable could once again benefit, and not just from viewers looking for alternatives to “Farmer Wants a Wife,” one of those new reality shows. The networks are also considering repurposing scripted cable shows from their sister cable networks, such as Showtime’s “Dexter” airing on CBS and USA’s “Monk” on NBC. That would give the shows a huge amount of exposure and could lead to future ratings growth for cable programs. Though media people think some midseason reality shows have potential, including Fox’s “Moment of Truth,” in which contestants are hooked up to lie detectors, they also see a very real possibility that audiences will quickly tire of reality and look to not just cable but also other media to fill the void. Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media, talks to Media Life about what midseason shows look most promising, which look least, and why you may start seeing primetime NBA games on ABC.

The networks publicly have been insisting that their ratings will not be much hurt by the upcoming glut of reality programming in the wake of the writers' strike. Do you think the public will embrace reality, because that's all there is, or will we see a backlash against this much unscripted programming?
 
There are two things. First, there’s an awful lot of reality on cable, so the lines between broadcast and cable will be blurred even more.
 
Second, the networks have shown a propensity as the season goes on toward airing reality in time periods that aren’t working, with the hopes of getting some sort of ratings boost. And that’s already been happening.
 
But it really depends on the amount, and it sounds like it will be a lot.

It’s like everything else. We could very well find out what the threshold is of viewers’ acceptance of unscripted programming with this writers’ strike.

Which network's midseason schedule looks the strongest? And the weakest?
 
Fox, of course, because of “American Idol,” and also because they have 15 hours a week [of programming] instead of 22. And they’ve always been pretty strong.

They also have “Canterbury’s Law,” “New Amsterdam” and the Parker Posey comedy “The Return of Jezebel James.” Also, Fox can always stretch out “Idol.”
 
ABC is connected to Disney so it may go a little more sports-heavy through ESPN, as well as air some theatrical releases.

Maybe they’ll go with an NBA game now and then that would otherwise air on ESPN. Games with LeBron James or the new Celtics, or maybe even a high-profile college game.
 
NBC has Universal but also USA, which has been the highest-rated basic cable network in primetime, and so they may run “Psych” and “Monk” and “The 4400,” things like that.

I’m not saying that these will all do huge ratings, but at least they offer viewers something different than reruns and reality.

Which new midseason reality shows look the most promising? Why?
 
There’s a few. The mother-daughter beauty queen one on the CW (“Mother of all Pageants”) may do well. “Celebrity Apprentice” puts a little twist on it, plus it’s on [Wednesday] nights so it might do okay too.
 
That lie detector show on Fox [“The Moment of Truth”] has certainly gotten some press, and of course they could use “American Idol” as a platform to promote that show. So it will get a lot of publicity, even if it’s negative.

Which new midseason reality shows look the least promising? Why?
 
That show with the farmer, “Farmer Takes a Wife” or whatever it’s called on CW. That may play well in Peoria, but I don’t know about anywhere else.
 

Do you think CBS's strategy of pulling out a summer staple like "Big Brother" and patching it into midseason is smart? Why or why not?
 
Well, I’m not surprised by it. You have to look at the strike as a form of summer programming, so why not run what works? So I’m not surprised, and you may start to see things like “Hell’s Kitchen” or “Last Comic Standing” and things like that.

Which new midseason scripted series look most promising? Why?
 
I think “The Sarah Connor Chronicles” looks pretty good, I think they’re promoting it a lot and it looks good. A lot of the shows are returning too, such as "The New Adventures of Old Christine” and “According to Jim.”

But of the new shows I think “Sarah Connor Chronicles” looks most interesting, it could appeal to Fox viewers much like “24.” It’s kind of action-adventure, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a show that does well.
 
Also, ABC’s “Cashmere Mafia.” “Women’s Murder Club” did pretty well, so some of the female-focused shows could do well. There’s sort of a void of the “Ally McBeal,” “Gilmore Girls”-type shows, so some of those might do well.

But any scripted show for the most part is probably going to do better than anticipated because of the weakened competition.
 
I think that you’re going to have to be careful to gauge the strength of a show. In many ways it’s like putting an original series on in the summer, except without as much competition on cable.
 
One other separate thing I think the strike will help is the cable news networks. There will be heightened interest in January [with the presidential primaries], and you may see them expand their political coverage.

Which new midseason scripted series look least promising? Why?
 
I didn’t think Fox’s “New Amsterdam” looked all that realistic, to be honest with you. They pushed that back from the fall, and there must be a reason for that.

Also, “Swingtown” from CBS didn’t look too good either. It's about swingers in the 1970s. None of these different types of shows that CBS is putting on so far have been as successful as they would like. And anytime a network decides to push something to midseason, that usually means they have something better.
 
But again, these shows could still do well. CBS may even bring back “Viva Laughlin” [laughs].

Which midseason returning scripted show will perform the best?
 
I think CBS’s “The New Adventures of Old Christine” will do well. NBC’s “Medium,” I think that will do well. It did pretty good last year. ABC’s “October Road” might do well, and “Power of 10” on CBS with Drew Carey. That’s another summer-type show like “Big Brother,” but it may still do well.
 
I think the ABC dramas in particular don’t repeat very well, like “Grey’s Anatomy” or “Ugly Betty,” so I think ABC will be the one looking around at other options.
 
They have a comedy called “Miss Guided” which may do well because of the weak competition. And ABC has a drama called “Eli Stone,” about a guy who’s a cutthroat lawyer and thinks he should maybe be a spiritual prophet.
 
CBS’s “Jericho’s” going to come back, and that may do pretty well, and I think “One Tree Hill” is too. And the CW is also going to bring back the “Pussycat Dolls” show, which did pretty well when it was on last year, or at least well enough to bring back for another run.
 
Also, NBC’s “Law & Order” is coming back.