In the days leading up to the writers strike, Hollywood's producers gave every indication of having the upper hand in the negotiations, giving off an air of parents talking down to unruly children, the 12,000 members of the Writers Guild of America who write the scripts for TV shows and movies.

But on the opening of day four of the strike, it's looking like a lot of the tough talk on the part of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers was just that.

The producers appear to have severely misread just how adamant the writers were in their insistence on getting a slice of the revenue from new media forms, such as internet downloads of TV shows. Rather than fold at the last minute, as producers had expected, the writers walked.

It's clear producers vastly underestimated the public support the writers would muster. Since the pickets went up on Monday, all manner of big names, including presidential candidates Barack Obama and John Edwards, have come out in support of the writers. So have top actors.

It's also looking like the producers were bluffing in their claims of having stockpiled months of episodes of top TV dramas. It appears to be weeks, not months, for a number of shows.

The TV industry is fast shutting down.

Shows that shut down earlier this week include ABC’s “Desperate Housewives,” CBS’s “Two and a Half Men,” “Big Bang Theory” and “Rules of Engagement,” and Fox’s “’Til Death” and “Back to You.”

NBC’s “The Office” and “30 Rock” are also shutting down this week, with only two fresh episodes of “Office” left to air, taking NBC’s No. 1 comedy through next week. The show was hurt by stars, including Steve Carell, refusing to cross picket lines this week to wrap up filming.

Fox has postponed the spring run of the seventh season of “24,” saying it only had less than a third of the new season’s episodes filmed. The network wants to run all 24 episodes uninterrupted, as it has the last few seasons, and thus pushed the start date of the show back to next fall or even spring 2009.

Filming for “24” had already been disrupted by disagreements over the show’s central storyline, fires in Southern California that delayed shooting, and star Kiefer Sutherland’s upcoming jail sentence.

There’s also a rumor floating about that ABC will similarly delay “Lost,” which has filmed eight episodes of the new season. The network does not want to go forward with an abbreviated season, fearing another ratings plunge that occurred last year when the show went on an extended hiatus.

Even shows that have additional episodes filmed could be off the air soon.

Some showrunners, the producer-writers who oversee production on dramas and sitcoms, are refusing to edit the already-shot footage of their shows, saying that they are on strike entirely from every aspect of their jobs, although the WGA has not mandated such a move.

Meanwhile, stars of talk, drama and comedy programs have been showing solidarity with writers, leading into next year’s Screen Actors Guild contract negotiations.

The casts of “ER” and “Grey’s Anatomy” visited picket lines in Hollywood, “New Adventures of Old Christine” star Julia Louis-Dreyfus walked the line, and late-night host Jay Leno handed out Krispy Kremes to WGA members.

Syndicated talk show host Ellen DeGeneres, who refused to cross the line Monday to tape her show, was back on the set in order to honor her contract, but she skipped her usual opening monologue as a salute to her writers.

Of course, all this is bad news for media buyers, who must worry about clients and their often hefty investments in this TV season going forward without disruption.

But there's a good side to it. Producers might suddenly feel a real urgency to get back to the negotiating table and begin making concessions, accepting the reality that the strike is going against them, especially as they begin to feel heat from the networks and advertisers.

Some strikes ought to happen. This is not one of them, in the minds of media buyers, advertisers and practically everyone else.

WGA members are famously still angry over the skimpy deal they accepted years back giving them just pennies on DVD sales. They are not going to fold when it comes to new media, where potential revenues could be far vaster.

“If we don’t get any of those revenues, we will experience tremendous losses,” Mona Mangan, executive director of the Writers Guild of America East, tells Media Life. “We want from day one that when they make money, we make money. We want a share in their revenue. They absolutely reject that principle.”