For the young,
scripted's in, reality out
What's hot this fall with teens and college kids
By Diego Vasquez
Sep 9, 2009
Young people played a key role in igniting the reality craze years ago with shows like “The Real World” and “Joe Millionaire,” but they’re, like, totally over it. The annual Youth Trends Fall Television Preview Report, released last week, finds that scripted series are by far the most anticipated new shows of the season among teens and college students. No reality show made the top five among males or females after students were shown trailers for fall programs and polled on which they liked the best. HBO’s “Bored to Death,” Fox’s “The Cleveland Show” and ABC’s “FlashForward” top the list among males, while females are most interested in seeing the CW’s “The Vampire Diaries,” “FlashForward” and ABC’s “Cougar Town.” Only a couple reality shows were among the most-anticipated returning shows this year. Generally, both males and females are more excited about this year’s new shows than they were about those last year, when there was more reality and less scripted fare because of the writers’ strike. Josh Weil, chief executive officer and co-founder at Youth Trends, talks to Media Life about students’ lack of interest in reality, why “Bored” looks like a winner, and what shows have the best chance at succeeding.
Why do you think this fall's series rated higher than last fall among this group?
There are number of different factors that come into play, but the good news is that there are a lot of young people pretty fired up about several new TV shows.
Last year seemed to heavily favor reality programming, which, with a few exceptions here and there, is increasingly falling out of favor with the teen and college audience.
Last year could also be positioned as a lagging effect of the writer’s strike, which basically halted all new development, thus all of the reality fare as opposed to scripted comedy or drama.
So here we are now back with a “normal” operating schedule. Not to beat the whole anti-reality drum to death, but you’ll note that not one of the top five highest rated new series for the new season fall under the genre, so more than anything, the audience has spoken.
More broadly speaking, we find the new season to be really eclectic in nature. On one hand, you’ve got star power factor with the likes of Chevy Chase, Courteney Cox, Ian Somerhalder, Jason Schwartzman, among others, all joining new shows. Familiarity is typically a good thing for this market.
You also have a real mix of programming—there is animation, sitcoms, action and drama. Serving up the same old, same old, which really means outrageous reality, isn’t a recipe for success. We think the combination of all of these factors really helped the planned viewing ratings overall.
What are the ingredients for a hit among students? What factors are most important to them?
Well, I just mentioned familiarity, and that’s definitely one of the keys.
Case in point: Talk about perfect timing and relevance, look at this summer’s No. 1 movie with the audience in “The Hangover.” You think teen and college guys were psyched to see [“Hangover” co-star] Zach Galifianakis appearing in a trailer for a new show [HBO’s “Bored to Death”]? You bet they were.
There also has to be one of those intangible elements that sparks curiosity. For example, take a look at “Trauma,” which came in as the fifth-highest-rated new series among teen and college females. By this point we all know the whole hospital drama resonates---think “Grey’s” and “House”--but introducing a new element, the action that takes place before by focusing on the first responders, is a nice little twist and clearly something that sparked interest.
You also have to consider the current state of pop culture as well.
We know the vampire genre is quite popular between HBO’s “True Blood,” one of the most popular TV shows this summer among all teens and college students, and of course with the success of “Twilight.” Lo and behold, the No. 1-rated new TV show for the fall among teen and college females was “The Vampire Diaries.”
Did any of the responses really surprise you or stand out? Why?
I think we were a bit surprised to see how “FlashForward” performed. We weren’t surprised that it did well among teen and college females, coming in second place, but we were mildly surprised to see it rate high with the guys.
The whole notion of the unknown and unexpected is pretty relevant, especially when you look at the success of perennial performers like “Lost.” Any time a show can rate among both males and females is a super plus, and in fact “FlashFoward” was the only new show that came in within the top five among both genders.
With respect to top-rated “Bored To Death,” I can’t say we were totally surprised, but it’s worth noting that it’s the first time a premium channel series secured the top spot--even “Entourage” wasn’t able to accomplish it.
There has been a lot of buzz with “Glee” but the buzz didn’t necessarily translate to top billing for this audience, so that is probably the one show we expected to be in the top five and didn’t make it.
What were the biggest differences between shows that interest male and female students?
Truthfully, the differences are really closing in lately, with a few exceptions here and there.
For example, comedy used to skew heavily male, but that’s not really the case anymore. Drama still tends to skew female and action is fairly neutral.
Some of the top-performing shows from the spring and through the summer, ranging from “The Office” to “True Blood,” have wide appeal among both males and females.
The only area where you still see a significant skew is animation, best exemplified by the performance of “The Cleveland Show,” which was the No. 2-rated show among teen and college males and didn’t even make the top 15 among the females.
Do students tend to favor a particular genre (drama, comedy, reality, cable shows, etc.)? Why or why not?
Genre preference is also tightening up as well. The only category that’s totally out of favor right now with one or two exceptions (“Top Chef,” “Project Runway”) is reality.
Other than that you see all other major genres included within the top five, ranging from comedy with “Bored To Death” and “Community” to action with “NCIS: Los Angeles” and drama with “The Vampire Diaries” and “Melrose Place.”
I think it’s fair to say at this point there is no real discernable skew towards one particular programming theme if you take reality out of the equation.
What returning shows continue to fare well among this group?
Among females, the best positioned include “Gossip Girl,” “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Top Chef,” and “House.” And among the guys, the top returning favorites include “The Office,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “30 Rock,” and “South Park.”
Within the top returnees, you have a nice mixture of broadcast, cable and premium cable.
What should media buyers and planners hoping to target this group on television keep in mind?
Among college students specifically, it’s important to keep in mind that about a third of the audience are active social TV viewers; that is, they watch their favorite TV shows live (first airing) with a group of two or more friends. Considering the typical college kid goes out five nights a week, guess what one of the main topics of conversation are? Exactly what they just saw.
The other thing worth noting is the whole linear versus streaming debate.
Our take on this: consider that the top TV shows streamed are remarkably similar in nature to the top shows watched on a linear basis—if cannibalization was taking place, wouldn’t the two lists look different?
Even with that said, you have to respect the somewhat inconsistent and unorthodox schedules teens and college students have during the school year. One night it’s study group, the next they have to work—at some point they are bound to miss one of their favorite episodes, and the concept of going online to stream it when they want and where they want is really appealing, especially if it costs nothing.
Finally, from an ad recall perspective, about seven in 10 teens and college student say they watch at least some of the commercials while watching their favorite TV shows, and about half of them can recall an ad based on their most recent viewing experience. Compare this to print, where the incidence is significantly less and the ad recall is less than 20 percent, and TV looks pretty darn good for building awareness.
|
|
|
