The writers' strike is indeed over, but there's little sense of a burden being lifted among media planners and buyers.
The big worry is where the networks go from here, with ratings now falling and the coming season looming ahead with not much in the way of new-series development in the pipeline.
The networks face the twin challenges of getting existing shows back into production and cooking up new show concepts to present to buyers this spring ahead of the upfront market. Can they do it all?
Perhaps, but just how well is another matter, say media planners and buyers. They're not overly confident.
That's the outcome of a poll Media Life ran late last week when it seemed certain the strike was about to end.
Readers were asked: Will the networks have enough time to patch together good schedules with promising new shows, or will they be forced to renew struggling programs that otherwise would have been axed, just to fill their hours?
"The networks will throw together a patchwork of shows and trot them out with a lot of fanfare," wrote one respondent. "More of those than usual will be gone as better work filters through later in the season."
Wrote another: "A lot of middling shows will be returned for fall with more new entries in midseason than there have been in the past."
And yet another sniped: "Considering the drivel that is usually slopped down on the fall schedule after careful consideration, planning, and with creative abandon, I wouldn't expect it to be much worse than most years. I think our expectations should remain fairly low. Expect to be underwhelmed."
But some readers were more upbeat, all that said. As one opined, "I think they'll have time if the strike ends this weekend to put together some fairly good schedules." And another wrote: "There will definitely be time for the networks to put together a handful of new programs. The new programs next fall will not be any worse than any other year."
A majority of readers, 70 percent, think the networks will end the season in May as usual, rather than extending it into the summer, for the simple reason of cost.
As for when fresh episodes will begin appearing in primetime, the best bet is April, according to readers. It will take that long to get scripts written and into production and the episodes shot and edited.
The question: "If the writers’ strike ends over weekend, how soon will we start seeing new scripted content?
More than half, 60 percent, thought April--27 percent early April and 22 percent in mid-April, and 11 percent late April. But 29 percent were more optimistic, predicting new episodes would begin airing in March.
Readers also think the writers came out ahead after three months on the picket lines, but it was hardly an overwhelming margin: 56 percent versus 44 percent who thought the studio bosses were the winners.
Interestingly, though, most readers don't think the networks will be taking big hits in the ratings in the time it takes to get fresh episodes back on the air.
The question: By the end of March, how much will adults 18-49 ratings have suffered from the strike?
The largest share, 44 percent, thought the declines would be between 6 percent and 10 percent. That's rosier than most forecasters have been predicting.
Just 20 percent thought they would be off between 10 and 15 percent.
And an even larger share, 24 percent, believed ratings would decline a modest 1 to 5 percent.
Among the new shows, the most promising among media buyers and planners was Fox's “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” the top choice of 30 percent of respondents. Ranking second was ABC's “Eli Stone," at 24 percent, and third, at 18 percent, was none.
The least-promising new show: ABC's "Cashmere Mafia," at 33 percent, with CBS's Welcome to the Captain” not all that far behind at 22 percent. Third was NBC's "Baby Borrowers” at 17 percent.
Readers believe ABC's returning “Lost” has the most to gain airing original episodes again reruns on the other networks, at 48 percent. Fox's "American Idol" was second at 31 percent. No other show came even close.
