For broadcast television, 2007 will undoubtedly be remembered as the year of the writers’ strike, but the real story, and the one that will continue to reverberate in 2008, is the continued decline of network ratings.
The strike is not the major cause. A number of other factors, including the rise of cable, the increased usage of digital video recorders and the growing number of new media distractions, have converged to drive down ratings for the Big Five by 5 percent this fall among adults 18-49.
Is it merely a blip of one year, or will it continue and perhaps even deepen in 2008? The worry is that it's the latter.
During first quarter a slew of reality shows will hit the airwaves as a result of the writers’ strike. Media people have forecast that ratings for the networks will dip between 5 percent to 10 percent. But no one really knows.
By all accounts, 2007 was a disappointing year. There were good points, like "House's" growth for Fox and "Heroes'" breakout season on NBC. The Super Bowl drew strong numbers. And undoubtedly television remains the best medium for reaching a mass audience.
But there was a notable lack of breakout hits, combined with declining numbers for already established hits like ABC’s “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives,” CBS’s “CSI” and NBC’s “ER,” all of which hit series lows this year.
Some of that viewership decline was offset by a sharp increase in DVR viewership. Nielsen more than doubled its DVR household sample this fall, to roughly one-fifth of households, and shows such as ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” and NBC’s “The Office” have seen a boost from seven-day DVR playback.
But while that explains some ratings erosion for established shows, it has not accounted for the lack of new hit shows. Media people agree that fall’s new programs included a number of smart, creative shows, including ABC’s “Pushing Daisies,” CBS’s “Cane” and CW’s “Aliens in America.”
Yet none have caught with viewers. The season’s biggest breakout hit, ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” lead-out “Samantha Who?,” has seen its audience evaporate with the end of “Stars.” NBC’s “Bionic Woman,” which had the top premiere of any drama, has lost more than half its viewers since then.
The CW’s most successful new show, “Gossip Girl,” has drawn more buzz online, where it’s the No. 1 download on iTunes, than on television, where it consistently ranks last in its timeslot.
And things don’t look much better in first quarter. Media people say the great flood of unscripted programming prompted by the writers’ strike will test just how tolerant viewers are of reality. If new shows like “Baby Borrowers” and “When Women Rule the World” catch, the networks could see minimal ratings declines.
But if viewers refuse to watch the fill-in fodder, broadcast could very well experience the same ratings declines this spring as last. That seems likely, considering the very lackluster debuts this past week of unscripted shows “Clash of the Choirs” on NBC, “Duel” on ABC and “Crowned: The Mother of All Pageants” on the CW.
What’s more, it’s not clear if viewers will return to broadcast. They seem increasingly willing to forgo TV when there’s nothing of import to watch, and these days there are very few must-see TV events, like “Roots,” who shot J.R. or the “Seinfeld” finale a few years back. Even “American Idol” saw its ratings slip last year.
And that’s something that can’t be blamed on the strike.
Meanwhile, in broadcast ratings for the week ended Dec. 16:
Among adults 18-49, CBS was first with a 3.2 rating and a 9 share, followed by NBC and Fox 2.8/8, ABC at 2.0/6, Univision at 1.3/4, CW at 1.1/3, MyNetworkTV and Telemundo at 0.4/1, TeleFutura at 0.3/1, and Ion and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 18-34, Fox led with a 2.5 rating and an 8 share, followed by NBC at 2.2/7, CBS at 2.1/6, Univision and ABC at 1.5/5, CW at 1.2/3, Telemundo at 0.5/1, TeleFutura at 0.4/1, MyNetworkTV at 0.3/1, and Ion and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 25-54, CBS was first with a 4.0 rating and a 10 share, followed by NBC at 3.3/8, Fox at 3.0/8, ABC at 2.4/6, Univision at 1.3/3, CW at 1.1/3, MyNetworkTV at 0.5/1, Telemundo at 0.4/1, TeleFutura at 0.3/1, Ion at 0.2/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): 1. CBS’s “CSI” 6.1; 2. Fox’s “The OT” 5.4; 3. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 5.3; 4. CBS’s “Survivor” 5.2; 5. Fox’s “The Simpsons” 4.8.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 1. CBS’s “CSI” 19.87 million; 2. CBS’s “Survivor” 15.18 million; 3. CBS’s “Without a Trace” 15.15 million; 4. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 14.61 million; 5. CBS’s “Survivor” 14.49 million.
Bottom five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): Tie-92. CW’s “Aliens in America” and “America’s Next Top Model 12/11” 0.7; 94. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” 0.6; 95. CW’s “Crowned - Encore” 0.5; Tie-96. CW’s “CW Now” and “Aliens in America –Sunday” 0.3.
Bottom five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 93. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model 12/11” 1.60 million; 94. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” 1.35 million; 95. CW’s “Crowned - Encore” 1.23 million; 96. CW’s “CW Now” 940,000; 97. CW’s “Aliens in America – Sunday” 860,000.
Show on the rise: “Without a Trace,” CBS, Thursday 10 p.m. While airing against repeats “Trace” posted a 4.0 rating among viewers 18-49, up 29 percent versus a 3.1 the week before, when it aired against ABC’s “Barbara Walters Special” and NBC’s original “ER.”
Show on the decline: “Notes from the Underbelly,” ABC, Monday 9:30 p.m. ABC’s midseason comedy continues to slide, last week by 9 percent week-to-week among viewers 18-49, from a 2.2 rating to a 2.0.
|
PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 16 |
|
Network
|
Households
|
People 2+
|
Adults 18-49
|
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
|
CBS
|
7.0
|
7920
|
12
|
3.9
|
11080
|
10
|
3.2
|
4140
|
9
|
|
NBC
|
5.5
|
6260
|
9
|
3.0
|
8560
|
8
|
2.8
|
3720
|
8
|
|
FOX
|
4.7
|
5290
|
8
|
2.6
|
7430
|
7
|
2.8
|
3640
|
8
|
|
ABC
|
4.2
|
4720
|
7
|
2.2
|
6300
|
6
|
2.0
|
2600
|
6
|
|
CW
|
1.8
|
2030
|
3
|
1.0
|
2780
|
2
|
1.1
|
1460
|
3
|
|
UNI
|
1.7
|
1910
|
3
|
1.1
|
3170
|
3
|
1.3
|
1710
|
4
|
|
MNT
|
1.0
|
1160
|
2
|
0.5
|
1570
|
1
|
0.4
|
560
|
1
|
|
TEL
|
0.5
|
610
|
1
|
0.3
|
980
|
1
|
0.4
|
520
|
1
|
|
ION
|
0.4
|
490
|
1
|
0.2
|
660
|
1
|
0.1
|
180
|
0
|
|
TF
|
0.4
|
400
|
1
|
0.2
|
690
|
1
|
0.3
|
440
|
1
|
|
AZA
|
0.1
|
70
|
0
|
0.0
|
110
|
0
|
0.1
|
80
|
0
|
|
*
Each rating point is equivalent to
1. 114
million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research
|
|
SEASON-TO-DATE PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 16 |
|
Network
|
Households
|
People 2+
|
Adults 18-49
|
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
Rtg%
|
(000)
|
Shr
|
|
CBS
|
7.6
|
8610
|
12
|
4.2
|
12040
|
11
|
3.5
|
4540
|
9
|
|
ABC
|
7.3
|
8190
|
12
|
3.9
|
11160
|
10
|
3.7
|
4830
|
10
|
|
NBC
|
5.6
|
6270
|
9
|
3.1
|
8800
|
8
|
3.3
|
4370
|
9
|
|
FOX
|
5.5
|
6180
|
9
|
3.1
|
8830
|
8
|
3.3
|
4320
|
9
|
|
CW
|
1.9
|
2140
|
3
|
1.0
|
2950
|
2
|
1.2
|
1590
|
3
|
|
UNI
|
1.9
|
2110
|
3
|
1.3
|
3580
|
3
|
1.5
|
2000
|
4
|
|
MNT
|
0.7
|
780
|
1
|
0.4
|
1010
|
1
|
0.4
|
500
|
1
|
|
TEL
|
0.5
|
610
|
1
|
0.3
|
980
|
1
|
0.4
|
540
|
1
|
|
ION
|
0.4
|
440
|
1
|
0.2
|
560
|
1
|
0.1
|
170
|
0
|
|
TF
|
0.4
|
400
|
1
|
0.2
|
680
|
1
|
0.3
|
420
|
1
|
|
AZA
|
0.1
|
100
|
0
|
0.1
|
160
|
0
|
0.1
|
100
|
0
|
|
*
Each rating point is equivalent to
1. 114
million homes
Source: Nielsen Media Research
|
|
TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 16 |
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
HOUSEHOLDS |
PERSONS 2+ |
|
Rtg% |
Shr |
(000) |
# |
Rtg% |
(000) |
|
1
|
CSI
|
CBS
|
12.5
|
19
|
14136
|
1
|
6.9
|
19874
|
|
2
|
WITHOUT A TRACE
|
CBS
|
10.0
|
17
|
11298
|
2
|
5.3
|
15147
|
|
3
|
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
|
NBC
|
9.5
|
15
|
10716
|
4
|
5.1
|
14614
|
|
4
|
CSI: NY
|
CBS
|
9.4
|
16
|
10552
|
6
|
5.0
|
14355
|
|
5
|
CSI:
MIAMI
|
CBS
|
9.2
|
15
|
10421
|
8
|
4.9
|
14113
|
|
6
|
CRIMINAL MINDS
|
CBS
|
9.0
|
14
|
10131
|
6
|
5.0
|
14175
|
|
7
|
60 MINUTES
|
CBS
|
8.7
|
14
|
9774
|
9
|
4.7
|
13358
|
|
7
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA
|
CBS
|
8.7
|
14
|
9862
|
4
|
5.1
|
14487
|
|
9
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA FINALE(S)
|
CBS
|
8.5
|
13
|
9580
|
2
|
5.3
|
15184
|
|
10
|
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED
|
NBC
|
8.4
|
14
|
9522
|
11
|
4.6
|
13182
|
|
10
|
OT, THE
|
FOX
|
8.4
|
14
|
9526
|
9
|
4.7
|
13543
|
|
12
|
DEAL OR NO DEAL 12/10(S)
|
NBC
|
8.0
|
12
|
8970
|
12
|
4.4
|
12624
|
|
13
|
NCIS
|
CBS
|
7.7
|
12
|
8657
|
14
|
4.1
|
11690
|
|
14
|
DEAL OR NO DEAL 12/11(S)
|
NBC
|
7.3
|
12
|
8256
|
17
|
3.9
|
11305
|
|
14
|
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK
|
NBC
|
7.3
|
12
|
8216
|
17
|
3.9
|
11086
|
|
14
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA
REUNION(S)
|
CBS
|
7.3
|
12
|
8268
|
13
|
4.3
|
12257
|
|
14
|
TWO AND A HALF MEN
|
CBS
|
7.3
|
11
|
8219
|
16
|
4.0
|
11487
|
|
18
|
EXTREME MAKEOVER:HOME ED.
|
ABC
|
7.1
|
11
|
8044
|
14
|
4.1
|
11849
|
|
19
|
BIGGEST LOSER 4
|
NBC
|
6.3
|
10
|
7142
|
20
|
3.4
|
9827
|
|
19
|
HOUSE
|
FOX
|
6.3
|
10
|
7158
|
20
|
3.4
|
9825
|
|
21
|
GHOST WHISPERER
|
CBS
|
6.2
|
11
|
6988
|
20
|
3.4
|
9804
|
|
21
|
NUMB3RS
|
CBS
|
6.2
|
11
|
7036
|
20
|
3.4
|
9748
|
|
23
|
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
|
CBS
|
6.0
|
9
|
6769
|
25
|
3.3
|
9340
|
|
23
|
SIMPSONS
|
FOX
|
6.0
|
9
|
6789
|
19
|
3.5
|
10070
|
|
25
|
BOSTON
LEGAL
|
ABC
|
5.9
|
10
|
6648
|
26
|
3.1
|
9018
|
|
25
|
DATELINE-WED 12/12(S)
|
NBC
|
5.9
|
10
|
6696
|
29
|
3.0
|
8595
|
|
25
|
FOOTBALL NT
AMERICA PT 3
|
NBC
|
5.9
|
10
|
6627
|
26
|
3.1
|
8784
|
|
Source: Nielsen Media Research |
|
TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST
Adults 18-49
Week Ending December 16 |
|
Rank |
Program |
Net |
Rtg% |
(000) |
|
1
|
CSI
|
CBS
|
6.1
|
7950
|
|
2
|
OT, THE
|
FOX
|
5.4
|
7099
|
|
3
|
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
|
NBC
|
5.3
|
6947
|
|
4
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA FINALE(S)
|
CBS
|
5.2
|
6750
|
|
5
|
SIMPSONS
|
FOX
|
4.8
|
6306
|
|
6
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA
|
CBS
|
4.6
|
6005
|
|
7
|
SURVIVOR:
CHINA
REUNION(S)
|
CBS
|
4.5
|
5919
|
|
8
|
EXTREME MAKEOVER:HOME ED.
|
ABC
|
4.2
|
5484
|
|
8
|
FAMILY GUY
|
FOX
|
4.2
|
5539
|
|
10
|
CSI: NY
|
CBS
|
4.1
|
5316
|
|
11
|
WITHOUT A TRACE
|
CBS
|
4.0
|
5226
|
|
12
|
CSI:
MIAMI
|
CBS
|
3.9
|
5123
|
|
12
|
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK
|
NBC
|
3.9
|
5083
|
|
14
|
KING OF THE HILL
|
FOX
|
3.7
|
4881
|
|
14
|
TWO AND A HALF MEN
|
CBS
|
3.7
|
4883
|
|
16
|
BIGGEST LOSER 4
|
NBC
|
3.6
|
4702
|
|
16
|
CRIMINAL MINDS
|
CBS
|
3.6
|
4783
|
|
16
|
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED
|
NBC
|
3.6
|
4658
|
|
16
|
HOUSE
|
FOX
|
3.6
|
4689
|
|
20
|
AMERICAN DAD
|
FOX
|
3.5
|
4540
|
|
21
|
DEAL OR NO DEAL 12/10(S)
|
NBC
|
3.3
|
4342
|
|
21
|
HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
|
CBS
|
3.3
|
4274
|
|
21
|
SHREK THE HALLS-12/11(S)
|
ABC
|
3.3
|
4369
|
|
24
|
FOOTBALL NT
AMERICA PT 3
|
NBC
|
3.2
|
4138
|
|
24
|
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
|
CBS
|
3.2
|
4212
|
|
Source: Nielsen Media Research |
|
SPANISH-LANGUAGE TELEVISION (WEEKLY COLLAPSED)
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 9 |
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
NHTI |
P2+ (000) |
|
1
|
CRISTINA MON
|
UNI
|
16.9
|
3348
|
|
2
|
PASION M-F
|
UNI
|
16.3
|
3270
|
|
3
|
DON FRANCISCO PRESENTA WE
|
UNI
|
16.0
|
2925
|
|
4
|
YO AMO JUAN QUERENDON M-F
|
UNI
|
15.9
|
3417
|
|
5
|
AMAR SIN LIMITES M-F
|
UNI
|
15.7
|
3267
|
|
6
|
VER
PARA CREER-TUE
|
UNI
|
15.6
|
3128
|
|
7
|
SABADO GIGANTE SAT
|
UNI
|
14.9
|
2911
|
|
7
|
BAILANDO CAMP INTER SUN
|
UNI
|
14.9
|
3235
|
|
9
|
NUESTRA NAVIDAD 07 12/14(S)-12/14/2007
|
UNI
|
13.8
|
2738
|
|
10
|
AQUI Y AHORA THU
|
UNI
|
12.9
|
2500
|
|
11
|
HORA PICO SUN
|
UNI
|
11.2
|
2268
|
|
12
|
PARODIA SAT
|
UNI
|
10.3
|
2041
|
|
13
|
FAMILIA DE DIEZ SAT
|
UNI
|
9.5
|
1740
|
|
14
|
VICTORIA M-F
|
TEL
|
6.8
|
1307
|
|
15
|
MADRE LUNA M-F
|
TEL
|
5.5
|
1025
|
|
16
|
12 CORAZONES M-F
|
TEL
|
4.5
|
857
|
|
17
|
PECADOS AJENOS M-F
|
TEL
|
4.3
|
851
|
|
18
|
CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN
|
TF
|
4.0
|
998
|
|
18
|
CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN 2
|
TF
|
4.0
|
865
|
|
20
|
CINE DE IMPACTO
|
TEL
|
3.8
|
814
|
|
21
|
CINE DE LAS ESTRELLAS M-THU
|
TF
|
3.6
|
737
|
|
22
|
SOLO BOXEO TECATE FRI
|
TF
|
3.3
|
691
|
|
23
|
CINE EN CASA
|
TEL
|
3.1
|
653
|
|
24
|
CINE DE LAS ESTREL SAT
|
TF
|
2.9
|
715
|
|
24
|
QUE DICE LA GENTE M-F
|
TF
|
2.9
|
579
|
|
* Nielsen Hispanic Television Index; ratings based on 11.63 million Hispanic TV homes.
Source: Nielsen Media Research |
|
HISPANIC ENGLISH-LANGUAGE VIEWING
Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 16 |
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
NHTI |
P2+(000) |
