NBC made the most dramatic programming move in recent broadcast history when it decided to replace scripted fare with a Jay Leno talk show weeknights at 10 p.m. this fall.
Media people have serious doubts about the move, which will help NBC save millions on program development.
“The Jay Leno Show” is expected to draw a limited audience, with lower ratings than the scripted fare that currently airs in those timeslots. Already media buyers are speculating over how CBS and ABC will counterprogram to draw viewers away from Leno and whether NBC can recover if Leno is a total bust.
Perhaps the bigger question longer term is whether the Leno move will help or hurt the rest of NBC’s schedule. That’s the big issue facing the network when it presents its full fall schedule Monday, two weeks after announcing its new show pickups.
Here's a scorecard of where the network stands and what new shows are in the wings:
With Leno accounting for five hours per week, NBC will have just 10 hours of primetime to fill on weeknights, compared to 15 hours before.
The limited real estate could help the longtime fourth-place network by forcing it to be more selective in which shows it renews. In theory, only the really good ones will earn a spot on the schedule.
Plus, with money freed up by the Leno move, NBC can afford to order more scripted and reality series, thereby airing fewer repeats than its competitors.
And shows like “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” that previously aired at 10 p.m. could see ratings rise next season when they move to 9 p.m., when more people are watching television.
But the Leno move could also hurt NBC. With the smaller audience at 10 p.m., the network will have fewer people to advertise its new shows to, and it seems virtually impossible that NBC could climb out of fourth place with Leno drawing low numbers.
Finally, many buyers say the move marginalizes NBC, making it seem more like a cable network with limited programming hours and short-flight series that will rotate in throughout the year.
The network already has given renewals to many returning shows and ordered six new scripted series for fall. Renewals for bubble shows “Law & Order,” “Medium” and “Chuck” seem likely, though they will likely receive smaller orders, and “My Name is Earl” will probably be canceled along with “Life.”
NBC will continue with its comedy block on Thursdays, adding new show “Community” to the lineup to replace “Earl.”
“The Biggest Loser” will likely split from two hours on Tuesday to an hour each on Tuesday and Wednesday. “SVU” should move to 9 p.m. Tuesday, and the new drama “Parenthood” could take that slot on Wednesday.
“Heroes” will probably stay on Monday, which could also house “Parenthood” or one of the two new medical dramas already picked up by the network, “Trauma” or “Mercy.”
The latest rumors have “Chuck” and “Southland” landing on Friday night, though the two shows don’t seem all that compatible. On the plus side, they both have low ratings, so the network won’t be expecting much from them on little-watched Friday night.
“Friday Night Lights” won’t return until midseason under a deal with DirecTV, and “L&O” would probably sit on the bench as well after sinking to all-time-low ratings this season.
NBC AT A GLANCE 2008-’09 season
Top shows
Adults 18-49 rating
Season ranking
Overall: “Sunday Night Football”
6.5
3
Top drama: “ER”
3.4
31
Top comedy: “The Office”
4.0
14
Season-to-date averages
Adults 18-49 (NBC is tied for third with ABC)
Total Viewers (NBC ranks fourth)
Adults 25-54 (NBC ranks fourth)
Rating/Share
% change versus last year
(000)
Rating/Share
% change versus last year
2.6/7
-4
7450
3.0/7
-3
Key shows already renewed
Key shows still on the bubble
“The Office,” “30 Rock,” “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” “The Biggest Loser,” “Celebrity Apprentice”
“Law & Order,” “Medium,” “Chuck,” “My Name is Earl”
