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For NBC, a shot
at No. 3 this season


The fall will be strong with 'Sunday Night Football'

Aug 22, 2008

NBC has been mired in fourth place for so long, with so many failed attempts to get out, that it's hard to imagine the network climbing back.

But this may be the season it begins.

NBC won’t make any big leaps forward this year but it could well eke out a third-place finish, beating out CBS in 18-49s for the full season.

If it happens, it will be fueled by the boost it gets in fourth quarter from “Sunday Night Football.” That will allow it to finish just behind ABC and Fox for the period.

“They should do well in fourth quarter,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at RPA in Santa Monica, Calif. “When you get beyond fourth quarter, that’s when it gets scary for NBC.”

Indeed, NBC still has lots of problems. Its schedule is heavy with weak returning shows like “Life,” “Lipstick Jungle” and, in midseason, “Apprentice,” and its few hits like “Heroes” slumped last season.

Further, several of its new programs are being overhauled only weeks before the season begins, always a sign of trouble.

The one thing it has going for it in midseason is the Super Bowl, which airs Feb. 1.

“They’ll be helped by the Super Bowl,” says Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming at Carat. "I don’t see them getting any ratings improvement from their regular series."

While NBC could surprise people if some of its new series become hits, more likely it will struggle most nights of the week outside of Sundays in fourth quarter.

Next to Sunday, its strongest night is Thursday. It held its own against ABC and CBS last season, and it’s expected to remain competitive this season, fending off Fox, which has been getting stronger on the night, with “My Name is Earl,” the Australian remake “Kath & Kim,” the “Office,” “30 Rock” and the final season of “ER.”

“Apprentice” fills in for “ER” in midseason.

On Mondays, NBC has the weak “Chuck” kicking off the night and the new drama “My Own Worst Enemy” at 10 beginning in October. In between is “Heroes,” a top 25 show last season despite losing 15 percent of its audience from the prior season.

NBC will trail ABC, which has “Dancing with the Stars,” and CBS, which has sitcoms and “CSI: Miami.”

NBC will have a tough time on Tuesdays with two hours of reality show “Biggest Loser” facing stiff competition in Fox’s “House.” NBC will be competitive at 10, however, with “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” going against CBS’s “Without a Trace” and ABC’s weak “Eli Stone.”

Wednesday is a weak spot, as it is for each of the Big Four, although “Law & Order” returns in midseason.

NBC’s schedule is a jumble that night. “Knight Rider,” a remake of the 1980s show about a talking car, is facing light competition at 8 but the fading game show “Deal or No Deal” will have a tough time against ABC’s “Private Practice.” “Lipstick,” which was weak last season, will struggle against CBS’s “CSI: NY.”

Fridays are a throwaway night for NBC. It kicks off the season with new reality show “America’s Toughest Jobs,” which will be replaced in October by the drama “Crusoe.” “Toughest” leads into “Deal” and “Life,” a show that probably wouldn’t have been renewed had the strike not disrupted production on potential replacements.

Saturdays are mostly repeats. And Sunday after football has the middling “Dateline” and “Medium” along with new fantasy drama “Merlin” and “Kings,” about a modern-day monarchy.



Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.




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