Last fall at this time, ABC was heading into a three-way race for No. 1. This year, with the new season beginning on Monday, ABC has the field to itself, all but sure to remain out ahead on the strength of "Dancing with the Stars" and "Grey’s Anatomy."

That will bode well for the network going into midseason, when things get a lot tougher with the return of "American Idol," which is expected to give Fox yet another season win in 18-49s. Last year, after a strong fall, ABC saw its ratings in that demographic in a nosedive by the end of the season, down 14 percent, giving it a third-place finish for the year.

This fall, ABC is spreading its biggest hits over four nights--Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday--while working to create a fifth competitive night on Wednesdays with a lineup that includes "Private Practice," the much-anticipated spinoff of "Grey’s."

"Our goal this year is to solidify Sundays and Thursdays, but we want to get stronger on every other night of the week," says Jeff Bader, executive vice president of ABC Entertainment. Mondays and Tuesdays are also solid in the fall.

"On Wednesday, we have three new shows, including one in the middle that’s a spinoff. Obviously, that’s a huge push for us to be more consistent on that night."

ABC kicks off Mondays with 90 minutes of "Dancing," followed by the new sitcom "Samantha Who?" and "The Bachelor."

Tuesdays have "Cavemen" and "Carpoolers" at 8 p.m., with "Dancing" results airing at 9 p.m. The new drama "Cashmere Mafia" will take that slot beginning in November, when the reality shows goes on a break until the spring. "Boston Legal" remains at 10 p.m.

Wednesdays are all new. The drama "Pushing Daisies" airs at 8 p.m., followed by "Private Practice." The drama "Dirty Sexy Money" airs at 10.

ABC will again rank No. 1 on Thursdays with "Ugly Betty" and "Grey’s," but it won’t be easy. The new drama "Big Shots" at 10 p.m. is facing tough competition, particularly with CBS bringing "Without a Trace" back from Sundays.

Fridays have "20/20," the new "Women’s Murder Club" and the returning "Men in Trees." Saturdays have college football and Sundays have the still-solid lineup of "America’s Funniest Home Videos," "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," "Desperate Housewives" and "Brothers & Sisters."

This year, "Lost" will return at midseason for an uninterrupted run, with the aim of avoiding the meltdown of last year, when the show went on an extended hiatus in late fall and then saw its ratings tumble on its return. It struggled thereafter.

Weaknesses
ABC has a few trouble spots, but none more worrisome than Tuesdays from 8-9, where "Cavemen" and "Carpoolers" are widely expected to bomb.

Wednesdays is a gamble with all-new shows.

Further, some of its hits are showing signs of aging.

"Their schedule is solid but their returning shows are on the decline," notes John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest.

"‘Dancing’ may be able to maintain itself from the spring, but I think we’ll see some loss. And with ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ and ‘Ugly Betty,’ we already saw them starting to decline in the spring from the fall, especially ‘Ugly Betty.’"

Then, looking into midseason, there's "Lost" to worry about. "It’ll have been off the air for more than six months when it starts back up," observes David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Rubin Postaer and Associates. "The first one, two or three ‘Lost’ episodes have to be really good."

Strengths
ABC has top-10 shows on four nights, and each is expected to continue doing well.

"Private" has a built-in "Grey’s" audience that will check it out. And ABC has the flexibility to stretch "Dancing" into more time slots if needed.

Ratings outlook
ABC will be in a tough battle for No. 2 behind Fox in 18-49s for the full season.

But it’ll rank No. 1 in fourth quarter, with a 3.5 rating, down from a 3.6 last fall, predicts Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming at Carat. It’ll slip less than CBS and NBC, however, ending the quarter one-tenth of a point ahead of NBC, three-tenths ahead of CBS, and six-tenths ahead of Fox.