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Buyers: Season's off
to a heck of a start


Big story is the strong ratings for the new shows

Oct 5, 2009
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For sure, broadcast television will continue to see viewers drift over to cable, but the networks are still capable of launching new shows that grab viewers' interest, and proof of that can be found in the number of promising new shows that people are talking about this new season.

Media buyers were optimistic about the new season months ago, and they are no less impressed now that it's started.

Maybe more so.

That's the sense one gets from the results of a Media Life poll posted last week in which readers were asked to rate the new season.

Readers were asked: What has been the big story of the season thus far?

More than half, 54 percent, chose "Strong ratings for a surprising number of new shows."

The solid start for NBC's "Jay Leno Show" was a distant second at 15 percent.

Third, at 13 percent, was the continued erosion for veteran shows like "CSI" and "Dancing with the Stars."

Asked to describe the new season so far, 61 percent agreed with this statement: "Encouraging. Several new shows seem to have some real potential, and I'm pleasantly surprised at the performance of some returning programs."

The remainder either thought the season's start wasn't all that impressive or thought it was off to a weak start.

Which network was off to the best start was a lot closer, with ABC just nudging out CBS. ABC got just over 42 percent of the vote, CBS just under 42 percent.

No one else came close: Fox got 12 percent, NBC 3 percent and the CW 1 percent.

There were a handful of new shows that debuted with ratings of 4.0 or better in viewers 18-49: "The Cleveland Show" on Fox, "Modern Family," FlashForward" and "Cougar Town" on ABC, and "NCIS: Los Angeles" on CBS.

Readers were asked which program would be the season's breakout show.

"NCIS: Los Angeles" came out tops with 34 percent of the vote. Next were "FlashFoward" at 26 percent and "Modern Family" at 23 percent. “Cougar Town” got just 6 percent of readers' votes.

And the next show to be canceled, after "The Beautiful Life: TBL?"

Readers picked Fox’s "Brothers," and by a hefty margin, at 40 percent. Next, at 19 percent, came ABC's "Shark Tank," followed by CBS's "Three Rivers" at 17 percent. NBC's "Mercy" came in at 13 percent.

As for the returning show with the most impressive first week, "The Big Bang Theory" on CBS was the easy winner at 31 percent, while Fox's "House" was second at 22 percent. Third came CBS's "NCIS" at 15 percent. Next came "Sunday Night Football" at 13 percent, just ahead of "Grey's Anatomy" on ABC at 12 percent.

The biggest disappointment among returning shows was NBC's "Heroes," at 33 percent, ahead of ABC's Desperate Housewives" at 22 percent.

Third was NBC's "Parks and Recreation" at 19 percent, followed by "CSI" at 14 percent.

Here are some more developments readers said they will be following as the season progresses, in their own words:

"How well will all of the broadcast networks' shows fare through November? New series like 'Modern Family' and 'FlashForward' were sampled well, and 'NCIS: LA' was as big of a hit as CBS was expecting. But in the coming weeks, the new series that convinced people to watch based on the pilot need to prove that the quality wasn't a once-time deal as their production time is greatly compacted. At the same time, some established series are still suffering from same slump that began in the Spring; who would have thought that we'd be talking about a 'Grey's Anatomy'/'CSI' horse race again with the former gaining ratings steam and the latter losing it? Sophomore series, too, have to finish convincing casual viewers that they are worth their time: 'Lie to Me' and 'The Mentalist' are getting posh timeslots and need to become the anchors the nets need as the Class of 2004-2005 ('Desperate Housewives,' 'House,' 'Grey's Anatomy,' 'Lost,' 'The Office') begins to exit the first-run stage."

"I'll be watching the effect on Fox's strong prime showing by the baseball playoffs. Will that momentum continue afterwards and into...good grief -- November?!"

"Seeing where Leno settles in and how that may change with repeat broadcasts in 10p hour on other networks. Following how ABC does overall as they had the most new shows."

"How long networks will stick with struggling shows, how Leno performs (I think it has settled in a bit now), and how strong football is going to continue to be."

"Weekly retention of new shows. Where will their numbers stabilize at?"

"The fate of The CW: how low can they go? Also, will NBC become the next CW?"

"The continued slow death of the reality genre on broadcast."

"Leno. NBC says something like a 1.7 in the demos means profit and success for the net. However, a 1.7 is less then they were getting in the time period last year during a down season. NBC affiliates cannot be happy with the week two numbers."

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Louisa Ada Seltzer is a staff writer for Media Life.




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