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Buyers: New fall
shows pretty ho-hum


Worry over continuing erosion of broadcast ratings

May 19, 2008
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The whole idea when the writers' strike ended was that if the networks rushed they could cobble together enough decent new shows in time for their upfront presentations.

They didn't make it.

Or so it would appear from what media buyers have to say after seeing last week's presentations by the broadcast networks. The networks got to the finish line okay, but the new shows they introduced had a make-shift, something-borrowed feel about them.

That's never a good sign, and in this case it suggests that the serious ratings declines the networks saw this season will accelerate in the 2008-'09 season.

That’s the finding of a Media Life poll posted on Friday.

"The new programs seem to be based on shaky concepts," wrote one respondent. And another said, "No one is pushing the envelope this year. At all."

Yet another summed it up this way: "There doesn't seem to be very many back-up options if the initial shows don't take off. We could be stuck with a lot of programming that isn't reaching viewers and therefore isn't delivering the numbers!"

Asked to identify the most notable trend at this year's upfront presentations, the top choice was: "The lack of development. The writers' strike really hurt pilot season, and the lack of new fall shows reflects that."

That received 42 percent of the vote among respondents, and second, at 24 percent, was: "The lack of glitz and ritz. I can't remember a more low-key upfront season."

Among the five broadcast networks, ABC got the highest marks for the schedule it presented to media buyers. It was the top choice at 41 percent.

Fox came in second at 27 percent, with CBS at third with 25 percent and NBC a distant fourth at 6 percent. The CW came in a painful dead last at a mere 1 percent.

Asked to name the weakest schedule, NBC was well out ahead at 48 percent, with the CW at No. 2 with 34 percent. Fox was next at 7 percent, then CBS at 6 and ABC at just 5 percent.

But as strong as ABC's schedule may be, media buyers see Fox winning the coming season once again in adult 18-49 viewers, presumably on the power of the fading but still hugely dominant "American Idol" reality series.

Last year, readers believed ABC would beat Fox.

As the above results would suggest, media buyers are still unimpressed by the CW.

The question: What do you think of the CW's new schedule?

Nearly a third, 28 percent, thought it was better than before, agreeing with this statement: "It's a huge improvement over last year. The nights have better flow to them, and you can't go wrong with a '90210' remake."

But more than two thirds thought otherwise.

Nearly half, 48 percent, agreed with this statement: "No better, no worse. Last year's new shows were of better quality, but these should connect better with viewers."

Nearly a quarter, 24 percent, agreed with this statement: "It's even worse than last year. The new shows are interchangeable, and modeling the network after 'Gossip Girl,' which is not a hit, is a mistake."

Fox has the coming season’s most promising new drama with J.J. Abrams’ “Fringe,” which received 34.6 percent of the vote. ABC’s “Life on Mars,” from David E. Kelley, was second at 19.7 percent, followed by new CBS’s new Jerry Bruckheimer drama “Eleventh Hour” at 15 percent. NBC’s “Knight Rider” was fourth at 9.4 percent, followed by CBS’s “The Ex List” and NBC’s “My Own Worst Enemy” at 7.1 percent.

The least-promising drama by a large margin is “Rider,” which received 30.6 percent of the vote. NBC actually had three of the four least-promising dramas, including “Crusoe” in second at 20.2 percent and “Enemy” in fourth at 12.9 percent, just behind CBS’s “List” at 15.3 percent. CBS’s “The Mentalist” was fifth at 10.5 percent.

Readers voted NBC’s “Kath & Kim,” based on an Australian show, both the most- and least-promising comedy/reality series. It received 27 percent of the vote in the most-promising category, followed by CBS’s “Worst Week” at 21.3 percent, CBS’s “Project Gary” and ABC’s “Opportunity Knocks” tied at third with 18 percent, and Fox’s “Do Not Disturb” at 15.6 percent.

“Kim” also won least-promising with 27.9 percent, followed by “Disturb” at 21.3 percent, “Week” at 18 percent, “Knocks” at 17.2 percent and “Gary” at 15.6 percent.

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Lisa Snedeker is a staff writer for Media Life.




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