It’s been a down season thus far for all of the networks, and that means we won’t see a big shakeup in the sweeps rankings this year. Though ABC has seen some of the steepest declines season to date, media researchers still see the network pulling off a November sweeps victory among adults 18-49, partly on the strength of “Dancing with the Stars.” The hit reality show remains a reliable ratings-grabber for ABC, despite the results show falling to a nearly three-year low last week. CBS will likely win among total viewers, households and adults 25-54. Meanwhile, there could be a few more new show cancellations before sweeps has ended on Nov. 26. NBC’s “Crusoe,” which has averaged a mere 0.9 adults 18-49 rating the past two weeks in its Friday 9 p.m. timeslot, seems the most likely to get the axe next. Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research with MediaCom, talks to Media Life about his projected sweeps standings, which network has performed the best this year, and which shows are endangered midway through the sweeps period.
 
Which network will win the November sweeps?
 
I don’t see the landscape changing much. CBS will likely still be leading among households and total viewers, and probably 25-54s. I’m not sure what the other networks will do as far as specials and stunts, but some of the weaker series will no doubt be rested.
 
Among 18-49s, ABC is in the lead this season, even though ratings are down, and a lot of it has to do with them running two and half hours a week of “Dancing with the Stars.” And that will move to three and a half hours with weekly recap shows. So I think they should hold on to the 18-49 crown for November.
 

Season to date, who has been the real winner among the broadcast networks?
 
I think all the networks are down a bit this year. Season to date, all of the broadcast networks are down, but CBS seems to be down the least. And I don’t know if that’s too surprising, being they have the highest-rated new show of the season in “The Mentalist.” It was a tough timeslot for them to fill, and they found something that works.
 
They did cancel “The Ex List” already, which Fridays at 9 has been another trouble spot for them. Maybe it was premature because the network’s still a force on Fridays. But most of the rest of their lineup is holding up pretty well.

Which network is having the toughest fall?
 
Well, it looks as if both NBC’s and ABC’s ratings are down considerably. Among 18-49s ABC is down about 20 percent, and NBC is down about 16 percent. They both have had a tough way this season.
 
ABC only introduced two new series, and “Opportunity Knocks” is already on hiatus. “Life on Mars” started out well but has been declining since its premiere. They did return the entire Wednesday lineup intact, which had three second-year series, and that time off didn’t do anything great for the night. “Private Practice” was renewed for the full season but the jury is still out on “Pushing Daisies” and “Dirty Sexy Money.”
 
NBC has also been in a tough way. They introduced “Knight Rider” and picked it up for full season, but ratings haven’t been spectacular. They moved “Lipstick Jungle” to Friday and “Life” to Wednesday, and also brought “Law & Order” back much earlier than it was supposed to be, which is always a sign that things aren’t looking so good. “Kath and Kim” is holding its own, although I wouldn’t call it a hit.

But unfortunately some returning hits have seen ratings declines, “Law & Order: SVU” and “Heroes,” to name two. The new show “Crusoe” hasn’t done anything, and in fact its median age is between 55 and 60 every week, rivaling some of the older-skewing shows on TV. We thought it’d be more family viewing.
 

What has been the most interesting thing you've noticed thus far this fall about the C3 ratings?
 
Actually, C3 ratings have improved some this season. The index of C3-to-live was typically around 100, so we use that as a basis.

What we’ve found already is a few programs, a few on Fox, “House” and “Fringe,” are improving ratings above that 100 index, because the DVR is contributing in a tremendous way to program ratings.
 
With CW, “90210” is the most time-shifted show this season among 18-49s, so they’re adding a considerable audience. And “The Office” still does tremendous DVR numbers.

Beyond that it’s typically the usual top 10 shows.
 

What information are you gleaning from DVR ratings that we hadn't seen before?
 
I don’t know if I can think anything that stands out as new and different.

The main trend is that DVRs are a major factor. I think that’s the biggest thing, and that was the main reason for going to C3—you can’t ignore the DVR.

Penetration will only continue to increase.
 

There are a handful of shows performing decently, including “The Mentalist” and, in 18-49s, “Fringe.” But there's certainly no “Desperate Housewives”-sized sensation. Do you think the years of having one huge breakout show are over?
 
I can’t say that it’s over because we’re just coming off the writers’ strike. So you kind of have to hold off decision making for a little while.
 
With NBC having no pilots this season, I don’t think that worked to their favor. CBS stuck to the more traditional upfront, and look, they’re in the best position right now, so what does that say? Maybe stick to what works.
 

Which new shows do you think are really in trouble?
 
We’ve had four cancellations already, “Do Not Disturb” on Fox, “Ex List” on CBS and two Sunday CW shows. You can expect some more on the way, it has to happen.
 
I would keep an eye on “Crusoe,” I don’t know how much longer NBC will deal with that on Friday night. ABC, what they do with “Life on Mars” is a question, because ratings have been slipping.
 
And then some of the returning freshman series from last year, which only had half a season, you wonder if the networks still consider them new. Series like “Pushing Daisies” and “Dirt Sexy Money” on ABC and “Life” on NBC. They’re still relatively fresh, but ratings really have not picked up for them.