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Behind Fox's early lead this season
By Diego Vasquez
Nov 17, 2009 - 1:10:56 AM
Even without the World Series, Fox is arguably the most improved network this fall. Its ratings are up compared to last year on three weeknights, it has two of the top new shows in "Glee" and "The Cleveland Show," and veteran hit "House" is up double-digit percentages over last year. Add in the highest-rated World Series since 2004, and Fox is poised to win its first November sweeps in eight years. It is also No. 1 this season. Still, while it will enter January in better position than past years, it does have a few areas of concern to media buyers and planners, the main one being Friday nights. The 9 p.m. drama "Dollhouse" was recently canceled, and the 8 p.m. sitcom block, new comedy "Brothers" and the inexplicably renewed "'Til Death," aren't doing any better. Don Seaman, vice president and director of communications analysis at MPG, talks to Media Life about how Fox has improved, how the World Series helped, and what to expect in January.
On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being not at all improved and 10 being the most of any network, how much has Fox improved compared to last year?
Well, I think they’re the beneficiary of a lot of things, but I’d say about a six-and-a-half to seven. Some is circumstantial--I attribute a lot of their success to the Yankees. That helped a lot, but across the board they’re up.
You look at last year’s World Series compared to this year, and it was far and away better. The six games this year averaged an 18 share among 18-49s while last year's 5-game average was a 12--so the Yankees provided a six share-point increase.
What are the network's biggest strengths this fall?
It’s the luck of baseball, it’s “Glee,”--that was one I had my personal doubts about. And that’s really hooked on to a lot of people. The animation thing, the Seth-ification of Sunday really, that’s really done well for them. Animation isn’t a slogan anymore. Sure, it’s boosted by football, but it’s probably holding its own on its own merits also.
What are its biggest weaknesses, and how would you like to see them addressed?
Well, one, and this is coming from a huge Giants fan, Michael Strahan [on the new sitcom "Brothers"]. It’s a good thing he has a side gig waiting at Fox. But, wow. Michael, Michael, Michael. All the people on that show—it’s just not the right thing. I guess they needed something to replace “Do Not Disturb” and “Til Death.”
“Fringe,” it’s becoming “Cringe” now in the ratings. I like the show, but it’s just in a deadly time period. And “Dollhouse,” they really gave it more than they needed to, and that was more legacy thing, “you’ve been good to us and we want to give you something back.”
Clearly we know what’s coming up for the next couple of months for Fox: “Idol” will probably come in and save everything.
But Fox is the one network that tries to brand itself. You know what the brand stands for. You know what a Fox comedy will be, a Fox reality show. Depending on what they have in development, they can probably help themselves pretty well. I think they’ll be all right just on the strength of “Idol” alone. They really don’t need much more.
How have its new shows performed compared to past seasons?
Well, “Cleveland” has been big for them. I would have thought it would have taken the place of “King of the Hill,” but it’s really outperformed that. That might be because of the synergy of everything else, Seth MacFarlane has taken over that night.
“Glee” has been big, and we talked about “Brothers.” I want to say of the stuff coming up that they seem to be going into that action thing with “Human Target” and “Past Life.” I don’t know if those will be big solutions for them. In terms of the new stuff, “Glee” and “Cleveland” are the ones they’ve got that are doing well. Again, we’ll take a mulligan on “Brothers.”
How much of a boost did the World Series give Fox during sweeps? Would they even be contending for the lead without it?
You know, you’ve got to wonder about that. I would say they’d be at more of a disadvantage, but none of the other networks have really distinguished themselves.
CBS is doing their thing, ABC has a stronger lineup, and NBC, good luck to them. About halfway through sweeps, having five nights of 11 ratings across the board (with the World Series), yeah that’s going to be your ballgame right there.
As a baseball fan, with November baseball, the quality of the games can’t be as good, but adding divisional playoffs and pushing it back so they get only one Saturday game with the Wednesday start, those were all good things for the network.
As a viewer I remember when the World Series was over in mid-October, and that’s more a “How do we fix baseball” thing. But Fox is a powerful entity and they want the November games.
The network has obviously struggled in fourth quarter for years. How much of its success this year is attributable to improvements made by Fox, and how much is simply the fact that the other networks are not as strong as they once were?
I think it’s a combination. A few years ago, probably more than that, CBS was a wasteland. You couldn’t pay people to go there, it was the old folks' network. Now everyone wants to be them. So things turn around quickly.
And, as such, is it because CBS is so dominant with what they’re putting on? I think a lot of it is attributable to growing fragmentation, and those who are still watching broadcast are more in line with CBS. They have a limited plate of very similar types of programs.
Fox I think is doing a good job of that. It’ll be interesting to see where they are without baseball. But where they could shore up some things, I think that they did. “Glee” was a good move for them. In the long run, do they get aggressive and move “Glee” to where “Fringe” is and see if that competes against the powerhouses?
Do you foresee anyone catching up to Fox this year, or have they pretty much sewn up the season title with "American Idol" still two months away?
I don’t want to say that because--full disclosure here--I’ve never in my life watched “American Idol.” I might be the only one. But every year we talk about whether this is the year it takes a turn down. But it’s still a powerhouse.
It’s a little in transition, they have the new judge, and that might help boost them a bit, but also you wonder how many people tuned in for the dynamic of the judges. It will probably get a bit of a bump from some, and some might leave because Paula’s gone.
I don’t want to say it’s in the bag because CBS always does well among households and older viewers. But among 18-49s, it’s definitely Fox’s game to lose. Other networks are making some moves, but they aren’t as aggressive moves.
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