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With most hit scripted series in reruns and “American Idol” still in the semifinals, late-night television has received more buzz than usual over the past two months. First there was the curiosity over the writer-less return of all but two late-night talkers, David Letterman and Craig Ferguson. Then came Jon Stewart’s Oscar hosting gig, Jimmy Kimmel’s viral video standoff with girlfriend Sarah Silverman (“I’m F*%^ing Matt Damon”) and, most recently, rumors that Jay Leno could be headed to Fox, ABC or syndication when his contract with NBC runs out next year. All the talk may be fueling increased viewership among young people. Although household ratings for most late-night television shows have remained about even to prestrike levels following a brief bump when they returned from a two-month hiatus in January, late-night TV usage among adults 18-34 has actually risen. Brian Hughes, vice president and manager of audience analysis at Magna Global, talks to Media Life about Leno’s future, late-night ratings, and why DVRs may be hurting some talk shows, though not for the reason you’d expect.
The
late-night shows saw a bump when they returned from their two-month
hiatus, but that bump didn't seem to last too long. Where are they now
compared with before the strike?
In general, all the weekday talk shows are doing as well as or slightly better than they were before the strike-induced repeats started.
Did any late-night show seem to benefit from the strike (broadcast or cable)?
We did notice that Adult Swim seemed to get a bump in its male 18-34 ratings during the strike period, both compared to both the previous year and the period before the strike began.
Conversely, did the strike have a particularly damaging effect on any one show?
Considering that the broadcast shows quickly returned to pre-strike levels, I would have to say no.
Do you expect to see any bump for the late-night shows now that the writers are back to work?
Well, Letterman and Ferguson have had their writers on board since early January, and we haven’t seen any significant change in any of the other shows since the strike ended.
Year to year, ratings for most of the late-night shows are down. Is this simply natural broadcast erosion, or is there anything else at play?
It is primarily broadcast erosion and migration to cable, but DVRs are having an impact as well. While late-night programs aren’t time-shifted nearly as much as primetime shows, there is a lot of playback of primetime series in late night.
What's the greatest misconception about late-night television coming off the strike?
I would say the greatest misconception about the strike in general is that it drove people away from television permanently. Total television usage in late night is up among adults 18-34 since the talk shows returned, and is up season-to-date compared to last year, even when we factor in the downtime.
Rumors continue to fly about Jay Leno's post "Tonight Show" future. Can you see him landing at another network? Do you think it was unwise of NBC to plan so early for his departure?
Anything is possible. I don’t want to comment on it until we know what’s actually going to happen—as you said, all we have to go on right now are rumors and speculation.
Now that Saturday night talk show "Spike Feresten" has been on for nearly two years, do you see Fox entering the weeknight late-night arena anytime soon?
Unless they were to ink a deal with a Jay Leno or someone of that caliber, I’d say it’s not likely. Fox has to consider its affiliates’ wishes—if they are doing well during the week with syndicated comedies, they might not be too keen on entering an already crowded talk show arena.
