The writers' strike is expected to end any day now, and the timing could not be better for the broadcast networks.
The strike, now entering its fourth month, will have taken a bite out of ratings, but this season will finish out without the horrendous declines many anticipated had the strike gone on much longer.
No less important, the strike will not particularly affect the upfront ad market this spring or development work on new shows for the coming season, say media buyers.
Yet even if the work stoppage by the Writers Guild of America were to end tomorrow, it would take at least two months, until April, before the networks were back to airing original episodes of primetime comedies and dramas.
“Every show is going to be different but the comedies should be up soon, assuming sets haven’t been taken down. It’ll take two to four weeks to get back into production,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Rubin Postaer and Associates in Santa Monica, Calif.
“Dramas take a little bit longer because of location shoots. We’re likely to see April originals, but it’ll mostly be comedies.”
Most likely, the networks would opt for an abbreviated season ending in May, rather than extend it into the summer, which would mean added production costs for additional episodes airing when viewership typically falls off.
But even with an abbreviated season, the damage done to the networks will be minor, with ratings tumbling 10 percent over the next two months compared to last year, by most estimates.
A longer strike could have led to ratings tumbling by 15 percent or more, by some estimates, and a serious disruption of the pilot-creation process for the next season, forcing networks to return shows they might otherwise have canceled.
As it stands now, the WGA and the studios, represented by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, have an agreement in principle and must now work out the language of a new contract, according to reports. An agreement could come next week, and a quick WGA vote would follow, with members rushing back to work.
There should be enough scripts for actors to get in front of cameras within a month, with post-production adding a few additional weeks. That would put comedies back on the air by early April and dramas by the end of that month.
As for next season, production on pilots will get underway as soon as the strike ends. And while it will be a little later than usual, it's not expected to affect the quality or quantity of the shows the networks present to media buyers during the upfront presentations.
The networks will have scripts and possibly clips in time to show media buyers during development meetings that usually take place in March.
The actual upfront, where the networks preview new programs and schedules for media buyers, could be pushed back from mid-May into June, but with no dire consequences.
Advertisers spent $9.3 billion in last year’s network TV upfront.
“The upfront will be more normal than it could’ve been,” says Scardino. “The ducks that need to be in a row are this season, then pilot season, so they can announce a schedule. That could be slightly delayed.”
What damage the networks suffer they'll suffer this month and next with primetime lineups loaded up with repeats of top-rated scripted shows like ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” and sitcoms such as NBC’s “The Office.” Until just recently, the strike had had almost no effect on ratings.
If ratings fall short of what the networks guaranteed advertisers, the networks will have to make up for these shortfalls by giving away spots to advertisers that would have otherwise generated revenue, or return their money.
