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Readers: Expect
one super Super Bowl


Media planners and buyers bet record viewers will tune in

Feb 4, 2010
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Indianapolis is not what you'd call a major market, nor is New Orleans, yet media planners and buyers don't think that will matter much when the Colts meet the Saints in Miami Sunday. They think the game will draw a record number of viewers, topping last year, which averaged 98.7 million.

Also, more readers than in past years think advertising on Super Bowl is a pretty smart play, perhaps because it's expected be a hot game with record viewers.

And for all the talk over several controversial ads this year, they think the TV spots that will generate the most buzz will be those from Anheuser-Busch.

More readers than not think the Colts will win.

Those are the top results of a Media Life poll that ran earlier this week.

Asked who would win the game, 63 percent chose the Colts over the Saints.

An even larger number, 71 percent, thought the game would outdraw last year's game between the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Offered a choice of seven ranges of viewership, from 80 million or fewer at the low end to 100.1 million or more, 34 percent chose between 99.1 million to 100 million and 29 percent chose 100.1 million or more.

Another 15 percent chose between 98.1 million to 99 million viewers.

In terms of what is the biggest determiner of viewership, the largest share of readers believes it's the game itself, agreeing with this statement: "If it's not close, people will drift away." That's consistent with Media Life Super Bowl polls of past years.

The next-largest share, 36 percent, believes it’s the matchup, the importance of the teams on the field, agreeing with this statement: "If you don't have a popular big-market team, you don't have a game."

And while there's so much talk about the commercials before and after the game, few media people they have any real effect on how many people watch.

Just 2 percent think the commercials are a factor, agreeing with this statement: "In a year of stupid ads, viewers will tune out early."

And only slightly more, 7 percent, think what network airs the game matters. They agreed with this statement: "Certain networks do a better job of presenting the game and hyping it, and that goes a long way to determining how many people watch."

The Anheuser-Busch commercials are the most anticipated, at 30 percent.

The least anticipated? GoDaddy at just 5 percent.

Tied for second behind the AB ads at just under 17 percent are the much-talked-about Focus on the Family spot featuring college star Tim Tebow in what many believe will be an advocacy ad opposing abortion and a spot for Coca-Cola featuring "The Simpsons" characters.

Media planners and buyers would appear to be a partying breed, based on their responses to the question: Where will you watch the game?

For the public at large, 90 percent plan to watch the game at home or at a friend's. For media people, that number falls to 52 percent. Fully 37 percent plan to watch the game at a party. Another 8 percent will watch at a bar.

The remaining 2 percent? They're going to take a pass on the game.

After the game, CBS will premiere a new drama, “Undercover Boss.”

How will it do?

Probably just decently. Last year, NBC aired "The Office," which averaged 22.9 million viewers, and the largest share of readers, 73 percent, think "Boss" will draw in that range, attracting fewer than 25 million viewers.

Just under 23 percent think it will draw between 25.1 million to 30 million viewers, while just 3 percent think it will average between 30.1 and 40 million viewers.

A likely star of Sunday's game will be the Colts' Peyton Manning, and after the game a lot of readers think he will be an even bigger star, winning the game and becoming the subject of the most postgame buzz.

Asked what folks will be talking about most after the game, 34 percent agreed with this statement: "Peyton Manning winning his second Super Bowl, cementing his legacy as one of the best players ever."

But almost as many, 30 percent, think the real star of the game will be not be Manning but the Saints, whom they expect to win. They agreed with this statement: "The Saints' victory, a feel-good story for a town that could really use it."

Third, at 26 percent, was the game itself.

Finally, asked to write in their opinion on whether advertising in the big game is worth it, most readers seem to think it is, despite the high price. That's a change from past years, when more people said it was not worth it.

Here's a sampling of responses:

"Yes, consumers are still purchasing and the recent economic growth the spots are worth every dollar."

"The BEST result is to have the network reject your ad. All the publicity surrounding that drives web traffic to watch your ad and you save $2 million."

"Still worth it. What other platform exists where the audience wants to see the commercials?"

"Yes, because despite the down economy, people are still watching TV, probably more so than before because they don't have the disposable income to go out. So they'll have viewing parties at home with friends. Isn't this what advertisers are paying for--mass captive audiences?"

"Yes it is worth it as long as the commercial's message is clear. Look at the growth of Go Daddy."

"Yes. In the age of DVRs this is the one mass appeal event where people stick around to watch the event commercials."

"By the time the ad airs, it has already been talked about and vetted and polled through numerous sites and outlets. If you factor in all that buzz, the expenditure on a CPM basis can almost make sense. The ads in the games are almost anti-climatic now."

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Louisa Ada Seltzer is a staff writer for Media Life.




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